With Ferrari completely dominating from start to finish, the 2002 season proved to be disappointing for almost all the other Formula One teams, but more so for the Williams-BMW squad. They started the season as favourites to beat the Italian champions, only to fail to live up to the expectations. Less than two weeks from now, the Grove-based outfit will have their first opportunity to try to get back to the top. Atlas F1's Karl Ludvigsen reviews Williams' chances ahead of the start of the new season

It's no secret that I, like a lot of other fans of Formula One, was disappointed by the 2002 showings of both BMW Williams and its highly-touted Colombian ace, Juan Pablo Montoya. I was seduced by their attractive and no-nonsense press launch at Silverstone and by the obvious potential of the potent BMW engine in a chassis from a proven multi-championship car builder. Montoya, too, looked to be the goods. He'd proved it in American racing and made his mark with some daring moves in his first Formula One season. So where did it all go wrong? And can they do better in 2003?

"Go wrong" may be putting it too harshly. BMW Williams and its drivers were the only squad capable of consistently taking the fight to those "red cars" last year. As a team Williams was second to Ferrari, with 92 points to 221 for the Italians, and ahead of McLaren's 65 points. Nevertheless at the beginning of the year I'd forecast that Williams would move up to triple-digit points in 2002 from only 80 in 2001 to get back to the form they displayed in seven straight seasons from 1991 through 1997. That was asking too much against the Ferrari juggernaut.

The outstanding points total accrued by Ferrari was owed not just to Michael Schumacher but also to the excellent performances of Rubens Barrichello, who surpassed himself last year. But who ranked next behind his 77 points? None other then Juan Montoya with 50. Ralf Schumacher finished fourth with 42 points, one better that McLaren's best, David Coulthard. Combined with Montoya's numerous poles, this made it far from a catastrophic year for BMW Williams. Most importantly from the standpoint of the Munich car maker, close and vital partner of Williams, they jointly annihilated the best efforts of their arch rivals in the car marketplace, Mercedes-Benz.

On the basis of their 2002 results alone, Montoya, driving a BMW Williams, must be nominated as the combination most likely to trouble Ferrari this year. McLaren-Mercedes has every chance to show form later in the season if its radical new car delivers the goods, but it won't be a factor over the full year. Nor can we exclude good finishes by Renault, Toyota and B·A·R (as they now style themselves).

As for BMW Williams, the early signs from testing are conflicting but on the whole positive. The new FW25 is lighter, lower and above all shorter than last year's FW24, which had a longer wheelbase than all its rivals. A new more compact gearbox helps tighten up the crucial rear-end aerodynamics without - according to Williams managing partner and engineering chief Patrick Head - reducing structural strength in that area. Head believes the rear-suspension layout by chief designer Gavin Fisher will maintain good rear-wheel grip after traction control is prohibited, starting with the British Grand Prix in July.

BMW's P83 engine is still a 90-degree V10 but is said to have all-new parts contributing to its greater lightness and lower center of gravity - the Holy Grail of Formula One engine designers, made possible by the ingenuity of clutch manufacturers whose clutches are little larger than your fist yet transmit 900 horsepower. That's the amount of power that BMW expects to have this year from its developed P83, exceeding the 19,000rpm barrier that the German company broke last year.

So the equipment should be good. As well, some aspects of the new rules are likely to help Williams and Montoya. One is that Michelin will have more freedom to adapt its tyres to the Williams chassis. This is an ultra-crucial factor; nothing will make a bigger contribution to the competitiveness of the new more compact BMW Williams chassis than Michelin tyres that suit it optimally. It will be the job of BMW and Williams to convince Michelin that it offers the French company the best chance of success in 2003 against the Bridgestone-tyred Ferraris. I think they can make that case.

Also helping Montoya is the new qualifying format in which each car gets just one crack at a fast time with an empty track. With seven pole positions in 2002 Juan Montoya showed that he had a knack for getting the car just right for one searing lap. "He sometimes did a very good job of that," admitted teammate Ralf Schumacher. This will work in his favor this year. Now he has to convert his pole positions into race successes. Here his team expects more from the talented Colombian than he produced in 2002. He's been given "the speech," said Sir Frank Williams, the lecture that says he must "learn to respect the challenge around him and react accordingly."

Only three things stand between JPM and success in '03. The first is a troubled relationship between BMW and Williams. When I interviewed Sir Frank early in 2002, he told me that before the end of the year he was hoping to have a new understanding with BMW about their relationship after their present agreement expires at the end of 2004. That deadline has passed, indeed against a background of disagreement about the way the two companies should move forward. "We are still struggling in a few key areas," said Williams, "such as intellectual property rights." Added BMW's Gerhard Berger, "We have a long way to go yet in our negotiations." This hints at a relationship that is not as settled as it might be if the partners were to be ideally focused on the demands of racing in 2003, a season that will require the most intense concentration if success is to be achieved.

I'm also unconvinced about Williams's testing cadre. With all the changes this year, Williams will need the strongest possible testing team and drivers. Unless I've miscounted, the only tester on the Grove company's books is Spaniard Marc Gene. Gene seems like a nice chap, but the only Formula One accomplishment on his books is a sixth place for Minardi in 1999's European Grand Prix at the Nurburgring. Since then he's been a Williams tester - the only one, save for the contracted racers.

These days, this isn't enough. BMW Williams should have strengthened its testing roster for the 2003 season, which will place unprecedented demands on the test teams with all the mandated changes in systems and electronics. I'd feel a lot better if Mika Salo, for example, had been persuaded to put in a testing year for BMW Williams. Or Luciano Burti. Or Pedro de la Rosa. The team needs someone with near-current Formula One experience in this important job. Not to have a stronger testing cadre is false economy these days.

The third thing that could hinder Montoya's progress toward the top? That would be a great season by Ralf Schumacher. Ralf has shown himself a very handy racer with a good strategic sense and four wins for Williams in the last two seasons. The younger Schumacher isn't as easy to like as JPM, but he'll be the Colombian's main rival on the track in 2003. Teammates always are. And Ralf will be no pushover. Both drivers have been warned, however, that crashing into each other as they did at Indianapolis last year is a scenario not to be repeated.

Will Montoya/BMW/Williams be a threat to Schumacher/Ferrari for the driver's title this year? I have to have my doubts. That's still too much of a mountain to climb. But over the season I could see JPM taking enough points off Barrichello to oust the Brazilian from second in the final standings. That will be the right launching point for a final leap to the top of the drivers' standings in 2004. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen.