Will the new regulations help Ferrari's rivals to close the gap in 2003? Or will the Italian World Champions be even stronger than in the previous year? Who will be the dark horse in the new season? And who will fail to live up to the expectations? Atlas F1's Will Gray previews the field ahead of the start of Formula One's 54th season

Ferrari

It was difficult to see how Ferrari could improve on their dominant 2002 performance - until the Italian giants unveiled their new F2003-GA machine. Named after the late Fiat boss Gianni Agnelli, the car broke cover in Maranello in February and lowered the Fiorano lap record three times in four days. That performance could, in part, be put down to the new track surface at the test circuit - but there was no denying the new machine's potential when, in the hands of World Champion Michael Schumacher, it broke the lap record at Imola by more than half a second.

It is understood that when the new car was revealed, the Jaguar engineers were watching on the Internet and their jaws dropped open as they realised Ferrari had somehow managed to make another astonishing step forward. No doubt jaws at chief rivals Williams and McLaren were dropping too. As he launched a bid to claim the Championship for the memory of Agnelli at the car's Maranello unveiling, Schumacher said: "I just hope it's going to go as fast as it looks." It is.

Schumacher admitted to being surprised the team had been able to make as many changes as they have - including further narrowing the already minuscule rear end - but technical director Ross Brawn calmly admitted: "Year on year, this car is probably the biggest step forward in terms of performance to date." A worrying fact for Williams and McLaren, who now need to make double the step that Ferrari have done this year to get back on the same platform.

Still, nobody at the team is expecting results comparable with last year's record-breaking season, even if their rivals fail to make the step leap they must do to catch up to Ferrari's performance levels. In fact, the World Champions' undoing this season could come with the new ban on two-way telemetry, which will take away the ability for teams to repair their cars during the race. Schumacher enjoyed astonishing reliability last season and finished every race of the year - but he was helped to the finish numerous times by his engineers back in the pits who changed his car's settings when they spotted a problem. The simple fact is, unless the team experience miraculous technical luck, Schumacher will not be able to finish as many races this year.

"I don't expect to match what we did last year," Schumacher has admitted. "It would be too much to think we could do that again - but it's important to achieve a championship whether it is in the last race or in the middle of the season." The dominant German had been "concerned about the pace" of the McLarens - but that was before he drove his new car. And despite the team orders fiasco at Ferrari, he now sees teammate Rubens Barrichello as his greatest threat this season. "It depends very much where McLaren end up but I am sure Rubens will be a big challenge," said Schumacher. "He is a bloody fast racing driver." It remains to be seen, though, whether he will be let off the leash.

Prediction: 1st

BMW-Williams

This is a crunch year for Williams. Seen as the closest challengers to Ferrari last season, especially with the expected coming of age of Colombian hopeful Juan Pablo Montoya, the team from Grove were ready to take the fight to their Italian rivals. They were left deflated and embarrassed. They won one race with the FW24 - the second of the season in Malaysia - but that was before Ferrari even introduced their new car. As soon as the F2002 was on track Williams rarely had a hope. And unless they make a significant step forward this season they could find themselves slipping back behind McLaren in the fight for "best of the rest" as they suffer what is expected to be another dominant Ferrari performance.

Montoya said at the launch of the new FW25 that he needs instant performance from the new machine if he is to challenge Schumacher and Ferrari: "If we had the car he had, we could win the Championship as well. You hear every five minutes that you need to do things the way Michael does because Michael wins. But Michael wins because he has got the car with which to win and we don't. Hopefully we have got the car this year that can win. My last win goes back to September 2001 - I'm hungry. I want to win some Grands Prix and hope that I've got the technical possibilities to do that."

But for Williams this season is about much more than just that. It is about their long-term future at the top of the sport - because their engine suppliers, BMW, are considering a walkout. Top BMW bosses Gerhard Berger and Mario Theissen were openly critical of the Williams chassis last season and the German company are believed to be seriously considering plans to enter their own team in 2004. Berger said: "Unless something suddenly goes wrong at Ferrari, it's unlikely that the BMW-Williams team will be World Champions in 2003." How far behind-the-scenes work on the BMW machine has got, if indeed it has begun, is yet to be discovered, but if they do part company it could leave Williams in a difficult position. Add to that the fact that team boss Sir Frank Williams has just decided to join rival McLaren boss Ron Dennis in taking the sport's governing body, the FIA, to arbitration over the latest rule changes, and there are plenty of off-track concerns to take Williams' eyes off a shot at the title.

Perhaps the biggest problem for Williams driver pairing Montoya and German Ralf Schumacher last year, and what will potentially be their biggest on-track difficulty again this season, is the team's continued relationship with tyre suppliers Michelin. Last year Williams and McLaren were let down by unsatisfactory compounds as they both vied for superiority from the French manufacturers while Ferrari continued to develop a successful relationship with Japanese suppliers Bridgestone. This year Ferrari could walk away with it again if Michelin are not up to the job - and by all accounts they still have some way to go.

Prediction: 3rd

McLaren-Mercedes

The team from Woking will start the season on the back foot after deciding to use a development of their 2002 car in the opening races - and that could be the key to their ultimate World Championship position. Last year, Ferrari did the same and pulled off a coup by introducing their F2002 machine late and blitzing the opposition thanks to their extra preparation time. If McLaren can hold their own against Ferrari's old car in the opening races, they could be in with a chance when they introduce the new car.

Team leader David Coulthard during the pre-season: "We are in a stronger position to start this season than when we started last season and I feel we have gone half a step towards closing the gap to Ferrari. We have been in front of Williams in testing most of the time - and our new car does not exist yet. Starting the design of the new car later could give us an advantage because we should be able to take the new rules into account - and the simulations show it is already a significant step forward."

Coulthard admits there is "no quick fix" to take the fight to Ferrari but is confident that victory in the McLaren-Williams battle will go to his team this season. And the Scot, who was regularly outpaced by Finnish teammate Kimi Raikkonen last year but has been working out non-stop in Monaco since the season end, believes he can be the one to lead McLaren's fight. "I am stronger than at any time in the past," he said. "My passion, energy and enthusiasm is at an all-time high. I want to win Grands Prix and if the car is up to the job then I am capable of delivering."

But it is not just the car that must be improved. Last year, privately, McLaren heavily criticised Mercedes' powerplant. Coulthard's victory in Monaco was hollow - because the team knew that the success showed their chassis was fine but their engine power was significantly down on their rivals. Mercedes have been working hard to change that and performances at the end of the season suggested they had made a step improvement. But they need to make an even bigger one this year. So, too, do Michelin, tyre suppliers to both McLaren and their rivals Williams. The new rule allowing 'bespoke' tyres for different teams could help McLaren, who have been working hard alongside Michelin's engineers, take a step ahead of Williams despite their situation - but whether that step will be enough to catch and overtake Bridgestone is very doubtful. It could be a good season for McLaren, but you cannot help but feel they will end up second best.

Prediction: 2nd

Renault

The French team have declared this season another year of progression as they build towards their bid to take on Ferrari for the World Championship title next year. To do that, of course, they need to win, so it will have to be a year of significant progression. Last year, despite regular points-scoring finishes they failed to reach any step of the podium. Their consistency will have been encouraging, but they lacked pure speed and reliability.

It seems that already president Patrick Faure has moved his title target to 2005 - and while his fellow team members refused to talk targets at the launch of their new car, in Switzerland last month, Faure was happy to reveal his goals. "We need podiums this year," he said. "That is podiums with an 's', because if we want to be able to fight in 2004 and 2005 for world championships we need podiums this year."

The team continue to persist with their radical engine concept, which has a rumoured 111 degree v-angle but is still down on power compared to its rivals. The chassis, too, was lacking at the start of last year and this season will be a real test for technical director Mike Gascoyne and his team as well as the men at the team's Viry engine base. The car last year impressed early on with its simply astonishing rate of development, considering the performances of mother team Benetton in 2001. But the pace of improvement slowed down dramatically and lofty hopes of beating McLaren by the end of the year proved embarrassingly highly targeted.

This year, the team believe they have a settled driver line-up that can pull the car up the grid, with Fernando Alonso moving up from his test driver role to replace Briton Jenson Button and Italian Jarno Trulli fully settled in after one year with the team. Speaking in Switzerland at the launch Trulli said: "We will get on very well, even during the season. I had a good relationship with Jenson, it is just that if you both speak the same language, like me and Fernando, it is much easier for everybody. People are sometimes different and maybe me and Fernando match slightly better than me and Jenson."

The driver line-up, however, means that Renault can be expected to quietly get on with the job this year, keeping out of the headlines and trying to make a name for themselves on the track. But they face a big challenge to take on Williams and McLaren - who also use Michelin tyres - and only time will tell if they are up to the job.

Prediction: 4th

Sauber-Petronas

The staying power of minnows Sauber has astonished many of the pitlane regulars, but there was nothing they could do to stop manufacturer-backed Renault from rising above them and stealing away their fourth place in the Championship last year. That is something team boss Peter Sauber wants to change this season, and he revealed, at the lavish ice show after the launch of the new car in Switzerland, his plan of attack. "We are struggling against the giants like Ferrari, McLaren and Williams," he said. "There are seven teams backed by the manufacturers and there are three others who are private and independent. We are one of those - but we want to be chasing the top three teams and, if we can, to take fourth place ahead of Renault."

The aims are high and, considering the impressive all-German driver line-up of talented youngster Nick Heidfeld and the returning Heinz-Harald Frentzen, they could be accurately targeted. Significant help from Ferrari, who will provide the team with the engine and gearbox from their World Championship-winning F2002 machine at a knock-down price this season, is also sure to push Sauber towards the front of the grid. But they must still provide a chassis to match their top-quality powerplant and transmission - and the concern is that without the influence of Argentine designer Sergio Rinland, whose creation gained the team their fourth-place finish in 2001 and whose influence was still felt on last year's car following his departure to Arrows, they could struggle.

Last year suggested the team's apparent problems with development, which made it difficult for them to maintain their performance during the season, were finally gone. And Frentzen, who has gained experience at Williams, Jordan and Arrows since he left Sauber in 1996, admitted at the launch of his new car that the team's new strength in depth has left him greatly impressed. "A lot of things have changed since I was here last," he said. "There are a lot more people. The team is bigger and better, it has developed a lot since I was here before and I feel very confident for the season ahead. But I can only rely on my experience to help develop the car." And it is the experience of his engineers to develop the Sauber machine that will decide whether they can achieve the impossible and keep up the pride of the privateers.

Prediction: 6th

Jordan-Ford

The cash-strapped team have only just made it onto the grid this season after losing their main backer, the Deutsche Post and DHL consortium, at the end of last season - and their survival is likely to make as many headlines as their on-track performance this year. The car's sponsor-light livery, revealed on track at Barcelona earlier this month, shows how much the team have struggled in the face of both the economic recession and the crumbling popularity of Formula One. It is understood that they have so far only paid new engine suppliers Cosworth for the first five races of the year. But Formula One without Jordan and the team's effervescent boss, affectionately known as EJ, is difficult to imagine and the sport's commercial rights holder Bernie Ecclestone is among many who are determined not to let that happen.

Last year, Takuma Sato's fifth place in the season-ending Japanese Grand Prix helped Jordan out to the tune of a cool one million dollars in bonus prize money - but he was given the boot before the end of the year. His one million was not enough and he could not bring extra funding to the team so they looked elsewhere. In came Anglo-Irish driver Ralph Firman, from Japanese Formula Nippon, to encourage the team's now most significant backer Benson and Hedges to stay and to bring in other links with potential sponsors. But the team insist he was chosen as much for pace as pounds and he is confident he will do himself justice. "There is no better time to be in Formula One," he said when he was unveiled as the team's second driver. "I am prepared for all the pressures and at the moment I think I will build things up slowly, avoid making mistakes and try my best. The target of the team and myself is to score points at every race weekend."

The financial insecurity is, in fact, probably Jordan's only worry. Their technical chief Gary Anderson can be relied on to produce a neat chassis and coupled with the Cosworth powerplant used by Jaguar last year, which will provide adequate power, and Bridgestone tyres the team should make the most of the new top-eight points-scoring scheme this year. The car's pace in testing, at the hands of Giancarlo Fisichella, has been promising and the team are confident that, given their financial position, they will be able to hold their own in the mid grid this season. But they must ensure reliability improves.

Prediction: 5th

Jaguar-Cosworth

No season ever seems to pass without restructuring at Jaguar followed by the promise of "a better future" for the Milton Keynes squad - and this year is no different. Once more, the team have a new managing director, David Pitchforth, and a new overseer at the head of Ford's Premier Performance Division, Tony Purnell. Unfortunately neither have a true Formula One background and while they appear to have properly structured the company and rid it of the rumoured in-fighting, the racing spirit that helps a team get to the cutting edge of the sport still seems to be missing.

Maybe that will be introduced by new sporting director, John Hogan, or maybe it will be ignited from within by the eager young driver pairing of Australian Mark Webber and Brazilian Antonio Pizzonia. But maybe it won't - and there seems to be a question over whether another restructuring at the end of the season would be an acceptable way to continue the project. It seems it is now or never for Jaguar.

The fresh driver pairing - compared to the ill-matched combination of Ulsterman Eddie Irvine and Spaniard Pedro de la Rosa - will find success on the track if they are given the right equipment. But that is the serious question mark over the team following the changes, which have seen the departure of last year's technical lynchpin Guenther Steiner. Behind the scenes, the team now have a very structured technical department, headed up by Pitchforth and assisted by failed BAR technical director Malcolm Oastler. But the design of the new R4 begun in the middle of last year and the personnel changeovers, which began at the United States Grand Prix in September, are sure to have a level of negative effect on the latest car.

Despite that, the team are convinced the new machine is a significant step forward on last year's R3 - which was improved enough to see Irvine achieve a podium behind the two Ferrari cars at the Italian Grand Prix last September. That performance, however, was a one-off. The new car has to be a massive improvement and the new team have made sure it has the best chance of being just that. Tests that were not even considered until the end of the season on last year's car have already been passed by this year's and, although the team admitted emptying the tanks for the run, Pizzonia managed to break the lap record in testing at Barcelona earlier this month. Pre-season talk and action, then, bodes well. But then again it always does with Jaguar. This year, for the sake of the team's future, it needs to continue.

Prediction: 8th

BAR-Honda

The Brackley-based team look like they will make more headlines off track than on this year - if the launch of their new BAR 005 machine in Barcelona last month is anything to go by. The team almost changed their name to 'Pure Racing' to portray their desire for an open and honest attitude to this year's campaign and there was certainly some clear talking in Spain. Jacques Villeneuve, who has been with the team since they made their debut in 1999, admitted: "We haven't had a good year yet. This is a very important season." Indeed it is. For him, for new teammate Jenson Button, for team principal David Richards...and for Honda.

The Japanese engine manufacturer, who had such impressive success with Williams and McLaren in the late eighties, have failed to live up to expectations since they returned to Formula One with BAR and Jordan. Their powerplant was so poor last year that they completely re-designed it in the middle of the season and insiders described the new unit as "heavier and less powerful." But they are now fully committed to BAR, with rumours that the team will be re-named Honda next year. And they are also fully committed to achieving success.

With former Williams designer Geoffrey Willis in charge of what is expected to be a much-improved car this season, BAR's performance is likely to be down to whether or not Honda get their act together. Villeneuve admitted: "Geoff's arrival has been beneficial. He'll make the car go faster and everybody in the team is excited because they had been working for many years without going forward. For the first time we should be competitive - but a lot depends on Honda."

But while Honda's performance will be under scrutiny, the partnership of Button and Villeneuve will be even more so. It is generally acknowledged that Villeneuve is not the flavour of the month at the team and that boss Richards wants to form the squad around Button, who he highly rates. But Villeneuve is out to make things difficult for his new partner. "There's more pressure on Jenson than there is on myself," he said at the launch of the new car, where he demolished Button in their first PR battle. "The key thing is do you respect your teammate or not?" Villeneuve added. "If you do then everything works fine and no-one gets destroyed in the process. If you don't you can't control yourself. I will respect Jenson once he goes quickly out on the racetrack. He's come into the team talked up as a future champion so there's a lot of weight on his shoulders. I've already won races and the championship in the past so people know what I can do."

Button's reply? "I'm sure we can work together - we need to. When you've got the chance to win then you can fight together but we need to work with the whole team to push this car forward." And that is exactly what could be the team's downfall this year.

Prediction: 7th

Minardi-Cosworth

Despite the best efforts of team boss Paul Stoddart to secure a budget for the whole of the 2003 season - and a promise that he had done so before the end of last year - this year will be all about survival for the Anglo-Italian team. And after the departure of a significant sponsor at the start of the year Stoddart cannot even guarantee the team's future beyond the opening four races of the season. "I did not want to get into a situation similar to Arrows but it seems that is what we are currently in," Stoddart admitted prior to the launch of the PS-03 at Fiorano this month. "Right now I cannot guarantee a full budget for this year."

Significant help will come from new Dutch signing Jos Verstappen, who once raced alongside Michael Schumacher at Benetton before disappearing into midfield obscurity then being dropped from Arrows before the start of last year. He is understood to bring a healthy supply of sponsors from his home country, but it seems even that will not be enough to keep the team going. Nor will Justin Wilson's self-raised bond of £2 million (pounds) which he is yet to raise from his share scheme but which is underwritten by his father Keith and his manager Jonathan Palmer. Right now, Stoddart and ruthless new commercial director Paul Jordan must work their magic - or Formula One ringleader Bernie Ecclestone must put his hand in his pocket - to secure their survival.

The ironic thing is, Minardi's on-track prospects have never looked so good: they have a Cosworth engine in the back of the car and they have done a last-minute deal with Bridgestone tyres. If their chassis is good - which it is generally renowned to be - there is no reason why they cannot compete with Jordan and the other mid-grid teams. But with such a small team their reliability must be in question. Even so, just as Formula One's perennial backmarkers look like they are about to make the jump their efforts could be cruelly cut off by forces beyond their control.

Prediction: 10th

Toyota

After setting targets of "qualifying for each race" last year there was little explanation required for the Germany-based team after they finished last but one in the World Championship. But behind the scenes, you bet there was. Despite all the talk, such an insignificant debut was not at all something that the Japanese-owned outfit, rumoured to have a budget as big as Ferrari, would be satisfied with - and they showed it in no uncertain terms. Out went drivers Allan McNish and Finn Mika Salo. Even team chief Ove Andersson, whose successes in all previous motorsports during his long-serving career with Toyota are legendary, was asked to step aside and partially relinquish control to new president Briton John Howett and act solely as team principal. This year, from the inside, the team are likely to be desperate for at least fifth behind manufacturer-backed Ferrari, Williams, McLaren and Renault. Not that they would say that.

Their decision to hire the consistent but uninspiring Olivier Panis from BAR came as a surprise to many while the gamble on long-contracted Toyota CART driver Cristiano da Matta creates a driver pairing that could go either way. Panis must throw off his nearly-man tag and da Matta must be more Villeneuve than Andretti when he makes the move across the Atlantic if the team are to get anywhere close to the rest of the top manufacturers this year.

Preparing for his debut in Melbourne, da Matta said: "I think [Juan Pablo] Montoya and [Jacques] Villeneuve have already done the job of coming here and protecting the CART name, and of course if I can do it it will be even better for the series, but it has already been proven that the level of drivers there is very good. I feel a lot more comfortable in the car, a lot more comfortable about my driving right now, I feel like everything is coming together. I am getting to know the team better, getting to know the people in the team better. There is still a long way to go but I am feeling better and better basically. I think I will arrive in Melbourne in pretty good shape."

The philosophy of the team is long-term with little clarity on goals and their outward attitude displays a surprising lack of ambition. Inside, of course, there is plenty of commitment, but chief designer Gustav Brunner's new TF103 machine is no more than a development of last year's car and it is unlikely to push them up to lofty heights. Another building year is what can be expected from Toyota, with maybe a few more points. A professional job, but one done with even less racing passion than is displayed by Ferrari - and one that is unlikely to see them shoot too far up the field.

Prediction: 9th