This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: Unlocking Qualifying Taking the BAR

Unlocking Qualifying

The latest 'rule clarification' from the FIA has made some considerable impact with the teams - not least because it is going to take the best part of a month to work out how to properly simulate the different races strategies for their gaming theory specialists.

A preliminary exploration of the implications is quite interesting: obviously, with points to be earned from winning races, and none from qualifying, the idea has to be about weighing up the advantages of early track position against the cost of an early pit-stop for fuel. But there is so much more to it than that.

The game theorists have been working on the advantages of lighter or heavier loads, looking at the trade off, comparing the predicted outcomes with the competition on varied strategies. Early indications are making it clear that the important day is going to be Friday's qualifying session, which decides the running order on Saturday. By running later than the competition, their speed - and hence, race strategy - is going to become apparent at the point they complete the 'qualifying' lap. A slow lap indicates a heavy fuel load, and a consistent driver will be able to put in just the right amount of fuel to ensure they 'qualify' ahead of that competitor. Or, put in a lot more fuel, knowing that they will not be slowed ahead of their first stop by far lighter cars, with early fuel stops lined up, ahead on the grid.

So, what does this mean? Given that Saturday is essentially a big hint at the race strategies of the teams, this really becomes a spoiler for the Sunday race. The best qualifying driver from Friday gets the biggest advantage, as he can base his strategy on knowledge of what the competition is intending, at least up to their first pit-stop, rather than guessing at it. So, the proposed Friday qualifying session will be even more important than the old Saturday qualifying session.

Suddenly, Jaguar's move to run with Friday testing adds up. The extra track time available from the session will give the teams involved about three times as long with their tyres on the circuit. If that extra time setting up the car for the circuit and fine tuning the tyre choice (these teams decide which rubber to commit to after the test) can be translated into an advantage in the qualifying session, even a couple of places could offer a critical advantage over an otherwise equally performing competitor.

Adding spice to the fire, there is some opportunity for politics to make things lively at the front. The 107% rule is conceptually obsolete, due to the potential for a lightly fuelled Minardi to set a ridiculously competitive time, compared to a fully laden field: for example, at Monza it is still expected that the teams will mostly try to carry a full tanks of fuel. With that rule obsolete, there is nothing to stop a driver deciding that, in anticipation of a poor grid position (for example, after an engine change, carrying a ten place penalty), he would be better off taking on a full tank of fuel, cruising the qualifying lap to save the tyres, then playing havoc with the back markers at the start of the race.

For those who like a flutter, there are further factors, beyond outright performance and race strategies, to factor in to predicting the Saturday grid. What are the odds on a tactical Minardi 'pole position,' with the team in search of exposure and sponsorship? At the expense of an inappropriately low fuel load wrecking a race they don't expect to win anyway, the team have a real opportunity to move up the grid.

There were question marks over old format, which highlighted the tactical element, making passing via pit-stop the accepted form of progression during the race. Whether or not these revisions lead to more overtaking, there is little doubt that the new two-session qualifying is going to develop the strategic side even further, and no doubt that it will give the media plenty to speculate about between qualifying and the race.

The only question remaining is, if it's unsafe to take all the fuel out and run 'qualifying' components on Saturday, why is it safe to do so in the Friday session?

Taking the BAR

If there's any one driver who is consistently pulled out as a star, but put down for underperforming over recent seasons, it has to be Jacques Villeneuve. Given the position Villeneuve has enjoyed in the team since their inception, it does seem to make sense that, if he can't beat Jenson Button over the course of a season, he should give up on the sport - indeed, that's a pretty good approximation of what Dave Richards had to say on the matter, when it became clear that the Canadian was going to stick around to the bitter end of his contract.

Lining up a reasonable shot at a decent alternative drive in Formula One requires any driver to spend at least a season making his teammate - preferably a respected driver - look ordinary, and there are few concessions made for earlier track record. Accordingly, Villeneuve's future in the sport will be decided almost entirely on his performance this year, as he faces Button's appearance in the team.

By positioning Button as 'the future of BAR,' Richards has done nothing to help Villeneuve get over the political machinations surrounding his ongoing contract, or to endear the Briton to him. Needless to say, recent weeks have seen plenty of press coverage concerning Villeneuve, and his attitude to the incoming Briton; but despite the antagonistic slant being portrayed, the Canadian sees no reason to go out of his way to worry about it.

The recent 'head games' rhetoric being assigned to Villeneuve are demonstrably all of no risk to the Canadian. Regardless of anything he says, if he fails to dominate his teammate, critics will put it down to his being past his best, or Button's burgeoning genius, and his career is over. If he is dominant, then there is some chance he can keep his seat, or find another - whoever takes him on already knows enough about the man they are hiring. Either way, nothing he says now makes any difference to the decisions being made at the end of the season. On the other hand, given the unenviable political atmosphere of operating at BAR, and commentary coming from Richards, Villeneuve has little need to play the corporate image game, making it simple for him to speak his mind.

Clearly, where his future lies is a big factor - and the prospect of an untested teammate is about as huge on the horizon as the prospect of taking on Zonta was, when BAR started up.

Villeneuve's respect for teammates has always been based on their performances - and then, not really until they've demonstrated they are up to matching (or beating) him in the same equipment. Damon Hill, as reigning World Champion, won that respect in no time, whilst Ricardo Zonta, a novice who never really got his act together - for whatever reason - just didn't do the job. Button, with a somewhat mixed track record, has a lot of work to do in Villeneuve's eyes to be earn the respect accorded to World Champions or race winners, and when drawn by the press, the man is quite prepared to say so. Accordingly, with his future on the line, Villeneuve is concentrating on the job of producing the best result possible, and not wasting time censoring his comments to the press, or anyone else for that matter.

Without Eddie Irvine around to provide straight answers in the ever more corporate paddock, having a few direct comments from Villeneuve on his perspective of the world should, at least, provide some interesting insights as the season progresses.