This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: Ringing the Changes? The Grapevine's 2002 Review

Ringing the Changes?

Coming away from the Formula One Commission's meeting, the teams are trying to absorb the implications of the changes being implemented for next season. In summary, the meeting has resulted in updates to the scoring system, a complete rewrite of how qualifying will work, and an optional reduction in testing.

Updating the points system is being seen as a bit of a sop. Checking how the last three seasons finished with the revised system yields no changes worthy of mention: the top six remain the same in both Championships. Also, the Championships are, indeed, wrapped up later. Also on the positive side, for teams who have sponsors who pay 'by the point' this is a significant financial bonus!

On the downside, there's a potential pitfall in the racing stakes. By reducing the difference between a win and second place, and offering 39 points rather than 26, it means the 'value' of a Championship point has effectively been reduced. Between that, and reducing the points difference between places, means there is less stock to be gained from making up places. Now, over the course of a season, it is even more important to accumulate those points, as others will be able to pick them up too: there is less reason to take chances in the hopes of gaining more points.

Illustrating the point, if a driver is in a place to challenge for the lead, attempting the pass now is in an attempt to gain an extra 25% in points terms, whereas last year, it was worth 66%. That's to say, last year, a calculating driver should have attempted a fifty-fifty chance at passing, whilst next year, it is only worth going for a near certainty. Similarly, attempting to pass for second from third is worth an extra 33%, where it used to be worth an extra 50%. Indeed, it's not until the new points positions are considered - seventh and eighth - that the incentive to make a pass increases. certainly not what 'the spectacle' demanded.

The teams are considering the implications of being able to test, unrestricted, for an extra two hours on the Friday of each weekend, against the limitation of ten car days of testing during the season. For Minardi, the decision was immediate and obvious: they can run local drivers in the third car for the session, increasing interest and sponsor exposure. The commercial benefits are clear: no significant change to testing costs, whilst increasing sponsor income. That makes the difference between making it through the season, or selling off the F3000 team to make up the difference.

Other teams who are seriously considering the proposition include Jordan and Sauber. None of the manufacturer-backed teams see a significant advantage to go this route: they are all planning aggressive development programs, and need more than ten car days of testing just to evolve their engines, let alone the aero package. Sauber are struggling on budget for 2003, so they were not planning on doing much testing through next season anyway, at this point in time. Jordan, on the other hand, are finding the decision far from simple. They are developing their car significantly to accommodate the new Ford engine, as well as aiming for a solid step forward. If there are any reliability issues at the start of the season, then the ten days would be lost on resolving them, rather than considering developments on the car. Furthermore, in the run up to the end of Takuma Sato's contract, there would be limited opportunity to test replacement drivers: talent could be lost to the big players before the season end arrives, and the team can test freely. On balance, Jordan's initial reaction is that this is probably not worth pursuing.

However, the most immediately obvious change, and the one that the Commission believes likely to contribute the biggest improvement to next season's spectacle, is the updated qualifying format. On paper, at least, it threatens to be a step in the right direction for 'spectacle seekers', and certainly it will provide some talking points.

The way it is supposed to work is each driver has a single hot lap on Friday, to determine the running order for doing the same thing on Saturday. Saturday's hot lap determines the running order for the race. And the 107% rule stands. Any driver who makes a mistake is going to end up further down the grid than normal. At the moment, the 107% rule has not been dismissed, so woe betide any drivers who get to run their qualifying lap after the rain starts during qualifying on Saturday.

Officially, drivers will still be able to start the race, given evidence of "extenuating circumstances" and agreement from all the teams. Considering the number of times the other teams have prevented Minardi running Alex Yoong last season, no-one is placing odds that Ferrari would get permission from Paul Stoddart for Michael Schumacher to start the race, if rain spoils his run! Odds are, the FIA will tighten up the rules, preventing this scenario, before it happens. No doubt, if they haven't, they'll have done so before it happened a second time.

The Grapevine's 2002 Review

A look back on some the stories doing the rounds at the start of the year:

Arrows in the Cold

Right from the outset, Arrows were missing testing sessions as they struggled with their budget. It turned out to be the pattern for their season, as they produced a relatively competitive car that didn't have the budget for effective development, and finally, didn't even have the funding to attend Grand Prix.

Picking the Battle Ground

Predictions of a close season proved dumfounded, when Ferrari produced a car which was just as quick as everyone predicted, but the competition was not up to the mark. Early testing demonstrated that Ferrari were on track, though Williams' solid evolution on their previous chassis, and 860bhp engine, seemed set to bring them close to the leaders. Sadly, whilst a match for the F2001 hybrid, the Williams did not live up to the standards set by Ferrari's F2002.

Silly Season: That Montoya Rumour

From the outset, there were rumours that Juan Pablo Montoya was being lined up by Ferrari as a replacement for Rubens Barrichello, or a retiring Michael Schumacher. It proved useful for negotiating a well paid extension to his Williams contract, but to date, despite the numerous resurgences of this rumour, there is nothing on the record regarding Montoya and Ferrari.

Jaguar Blowing in the Wind

The new Jaguar was born bad, there is no two ways about it. Early on, the team tried to claim a "minor" aerodynamic deficiency. It soon became apparent that the problems were more fundamental, and resolving them required a considerable effort over the first half of the season, including work to stiffen the suspension and chassis. Performance wise, the team never regained the ground lost on these problems, and even at the end of the season, the car was only close to happy when running low downforce in straight lines.

Ferrari Enter the Fray

The first look at Ferrari's new F2002, without barge boards, set some stunning times. Early season speculation that the car sported a fantastic new gearbox proved unfounded - though the packaging was incredibly efficient. Despite appearing similar to the F2001, the new car had evolved in every aspect, particularly, at the rear, and the world (except Eddie Irvine, who scoffed at the Bridgestone tyres) feared the results if the car proved reliable.

On Tyres and Championships

Following the 'uneven groove' saga for Michelin's tyres ahead of Melbourne, the manufacturer got back to work ahead of the Malaysian Grand Prix, and found half a second in their standard groove tyres. The difference proved important when Williams came to Malaysia: Ralf Schumacher used the rubber to record a win.

Renault on a Roll

Renault's stated intention of finishing fourth overall suddenly looked viable after they had an excellent Malaysian weekend. Whilst Michelin's rubber was a factor, it was clear that the car was a different breed to the previous year's tail wagger: however, reliability was a disaster, and this continued to plague the team throughout the year.

Honda Working it Out

By the time of the San Marino Grand Prix, Honda were committed to running with a single team from 2003, though they were denying it at the time. It later transpired these rumours started shortly after Eddie Jordan started talking to Ford and Ferrari about the possibility of using their customer units.

Michelin Shaken but Stirring

Michelin started focusing on Williams and dry tyres, as they attempted to close down the gap to the Ferrari/Bridgestone combination. The much reduced effort on wet tyres backfired big-time at the British Grand Prix, however, when the Michelin runners were hopelessly outclassed by Bridgestone in wet, changeable conditions.

Promises, Promises

Max Mosley's first steps towards the changes that just took place started back at the Austrian Grand Prix. The talk was of two qualifying sessions, on Friday and Saturday, and reducing testing between races in return for more track time on the Friday of racing weekends. Sounds familiar?