Two World Champions, nine race winners, four rookies and one returnee. Roger Horton previews the 2002 F1 field

1. Michael Schumacher

Only two factors could possibly combine to deny Michael Schumacher his fifth drivers' title and his third in a row since joining Ferrari. The first factor is the mechanical reliability of his car, and as soon as it was announced that Ferrari would be starting the early season races with an updated version of last year's F2001, this looked a distinct possibility. Last season his Ferrari was just about bullet-proof, and his rivals all but defeated themselves through their own inconsistency, but the law of averages and the cyclical nature of Formula One, suggests that this scenario is unlikely to be repeated this year.

So the unanswered question is whether Ferrari have overreached themselves with the F2002 and whether their impressive record of reliability will now suffer? The second factor is the depth of his motivation to keep winning should a superior combination emerge whilst the title fight is still unresolved. His rivals must be hoping that the weakness he temporarily showed at Monza last season might be the sign of things to come; that the maturity that comes with family life has taken hold and dulled his will to win. Overall, however, going into the opening race of the season, Schumacher must still be the favourite for the title, and to add yet another chapter to his remarkable career.

2. Rubens Barrichello

No racing driver worth his salt can be Schumacher's teammate at Ferrari and, in his heart, be happy with his lot. Already Barrichello is on notice that unless he curbs his public dissent concerning his status in the team, this will be his last season at Maranello, which for the Brazilian might be no bad thing. Last year he often raced well, but on no less than eight occasions he qualified outside the top four, which at the wheel of the best car in the field was a disappointment, and his poor grid positions probably cost him the second place in the Championship Ferrari were expecting. With a stronger threat expected from both the Michelin shod Williams and McLaren outfits this year, Barrichello will need to ensure he is more on the pace come Saturday if he is to be in contention for wins on Sunday afternoon, team orders not withstanding.

3. David Coulthard

It's becoming increasingly hard at the start of each new season to find fresh things to say about David Coulthard's Championship chances. This year there is no Mika Hakkinen to overshadow him at McLaren, and he must be hoping that the extra attention that comes his way will lift him enough to become a Championship contender. If he is to have a serious title shot this year he needs his car to be more reliable than either the Williams or Ferraris, and his Michelin tyres need to be better that Ferrari's Bridgestones, as it's unlikely that the MP4-17 by itself will be fast enough to be a regular race winner. Coulthard is highly unlikely to dominate his way to a World Championship like Schumacher did last year, but should circumstances see the points spread around more evenly amongst the 'big three', then Coulthard just might be able to pull off a surprise title success by the narrowest of margins. The odds on this happening, it has to be said, still look to be pretty long.

4. Kimi Raikkonen

"If you want to win, then get a Finn," Mika Hakkinen liked to joke last year once the news broke that Ron Dennis had bypassed his other options and selected Hakkinen's young countryman to fill the seat he vacated at McLaren. So far Raikkonen has looked pretty calm and collected during pre-season testing, and he has shown once again to be extremely quick. Soon though, comes the hard part. Living up to the hype in a team that expects to win and is not happy when it doesn't, especially if the driver is felt to be part of the reason. Already Raikkonen's impressive rookie form at Sauber has raised expectations that he may well struggle to live up to now that he is driving for such a high-profile team, and just like many other 'second year' drivers before him, he may find this season especially challenging. Overall however, Kimi Raikkonen showed enough last season to suggest that his talent is rather special, and if his package is up to it, a maiden Grand Prix win is a strong possibility.

5. Ralf Schumacher

Is Ralf Schumacher good enough to win a World Championship? This year could finally be the year when we get the answer to that question. To triumph Ralf will need to perform to his potential for the whole season and not just part of it as he has done for the past two years. Ralf, though, will be fighting the battle very much alone, and his own teammate will be one of his strongest rivals, always the ultimate test of a driver's resolve. Last year, even when Ralf was on his hot streak following his win in Canada, he made the type of small but crucial errors during pit stops that will cost him dearly if they are repeated this season, should he be running at the front and challenging for race wins on a regular basis. There is no question that Ralf Schumacher has the pure driving ability to win a Championship, the only question is to whether he has the mental strength to maintain his focus throughout a gruelling Championship campaign.

6. Juan Pablo Montoya

One year on, Montoya will start his 2002 campaign in Australia as a proven race winner, and confident that provided his Williams lives up to his expectations, he can be a title contender. Head to head he has shown he can beat Michael Schumacher in a straight fight on a dry track. He has yet to prove he can do it on a wet track, or when the circuit conditions are changing by the minute, conditions in which the four-times champion is currently supreme, and it could be races in these types of conditions on which Montoya's Championship challenge could turn. Unlike his teammate, Montoya will relish the inter team rivalry that is so much a part of life at Williams, and will look to harnessing the energy it creates within the team towards his ultimate goal of taking the World Championship from Michael Schumacher's grasp.

7. Nick Heidfeld

Clearly upset at losing the vacant McLaren seat to his former teammate Kimi Raikkonen, Heidfeld is a driver with a point to prove this season. The Saubers have looked impressive in preseason testing, so the young German once again looks to have the equipment to embarrass the big name teams this year. Heidfeld knows that the longer he stays with his current team, the harder it will be to take the next step up the ladder. Heidfeld is fast and hungry, and the combination could well provide the odd surprise.

8. Felipe Massa

Felipe Massa is now following the well-trodden path of entering F1 with just two years of European single seater experience behind him, and already they are plenty of observers prepared to talk up his chances of doing well at the highest level. His team boss Peter Sauber seems to have acquired the knack of picking up young, cheap, but talented drivers and providing them with an environment in which to blossom. Provided Massa can control his wilder instincts, he may well make a considerable mark on the Formula One scene, as his raw speed has been impressive in his short career so far.

9. Giancarlo Fisichella

Can Eddie Jordan's team produce a winning car again in the next few years? It's a question Giancarlo Fisichella must be asking himself pretty seriously as he commences the first year of his three year stint with the Silverstone based outfit. If they continue their current form, on the fringes of the top four, then the likable Italian is surely destined to see his huge potential largely wasted in the anonymity of the mid-field for perhaps the best years of his career. Fisichella deserves better perhaps, but will he get it?

10. Takuma Sato

Takuma Sato is something of an oddity amongst the modern breed of young drivers because he was fully nineteen years old before he commenced his racing career, but already there are some who believe that the 25-year old is the most naturally talented Japanese driver yet to make it into Formula One. Although Honda backed, he has made the grade purely on talent alone, having swept all before him in the highly competitive British F3 series last season. Additionally he scored wins at both the prestigious Marlboro Masters and the challenging Macau F3 street course, confirming his outstanding talent. The Honda powered Jordan team is likely to provide the ideal platform for Sato to showcase his talent in an environment where his Honda connections will do him no harm at all.

11. Jacques Villeneuve

Once again Jacques Villeneuve commences another season at BAR with little prospect that he will be able to score his team's first elusive victory. The departure of the French-Canadian's long time mentor and former team boss Craig Pollock from the outfit he created and his replacement by the hard-nosed Dave Richards might well create an environment that is not to the former champion's liking. Villeneuve, though, needs a good season if he is restore a reputation that has taken something of a battering in recent years, and ensure that he remains in demand from the teams that matter.

12. Olivier Panis

Olivier Panis continues with the Brackley based BAR team for a second year, where his low profile but effective testing abilities continue to be highly regarded. Panis can only hope that the new BAR004 is a vast improvement on its predecessor, which refused all his efforts to improve it. Now 35-years old, the popular Frenchman remains an honest worker-driver perhaps in his last year at this level.

14. Jarno Trulli

This is Jarno Trulli's big chance. Renault is a big team with the credentials to take a driver to a World Championship in the next few years. Last year saw him endlessly frustrated with the quality of the equipment at his disposal, and this led him on occasions to overdrive in his attempts to compensate. At Jordan Trulli garnered a reputation of being one of the fastest drivers on the grid over one lap, but now he needs to extend that speed into the races on a consistent basis. If Jarno Trulli can harness the considerable engineering resources available to him at his new team and make it work for him, then he could become the first serious Italian title contender since the much missed Michele Alboreto.

15. Jenson Button

Already preseason testing is suggesting that massive progress has been made with the new Renault R202, and Jenson Button has already shown enough speed with it to suggest that this year will be more productive than last. Button has made changes to his entourage over the winter to ensure that he presents a more back-to-basics approach in what will be a crucial season in his career. Last year he allowed his inexperience to show, but few doubted his ultimate pace even while he was struggling at the back of the grid. This season he needs, like his teammate, to fully exploit the potential talents at his disposal at the reborn Renault outfit. If he can do this successfully, podiums should follow.

16. Eddie Irvine

The prospects for Eddie Irvine's season don't look very good. The new Jaguar R3 needed an almost immediate redesign after its launch, and the car has looked pretty slow in the fairly limited running it has done so far this season. None of this is, of course, Irvine's fault. But the big question mark that hangs over the outspoken Ulsterman, now officially Formula One's elder statesman, is just how much appetite he still has for another season dragging an uncompetitive car around, hoping to perhaps pick up the odd point. In the cockpit Irvine can still sometimes produce performances that would win races in other cars, but should Jaguar continue to be perform at the dismal level they have in the past two years, Irvine's patience for the whole experience could well snap.

17. Pedro de la Rosa

Like his teammate, De la Rosa faces another difficult year at Jaguar. But unlike Irvine, the Spaniard has never tasted the joys of driving a winning car as Irvine did at Ferrari, so perhaps this makes him more contented with his lot. Last year he was parachuted into the team to replace the discarded Luciano Burti and survived to do a reasonable job given all the circumstances. The best he realistically can hope for this season is to score the odd point in a high attrition race.

20. Heinz-Harald Frentzen

The past twelve months have not been kind to Heinz-Harald Frentzen. The man who came into Formula One with the reputation of being quicker than Michael Schumacher has been dumped by Jordan, seen his next employer Prost sink to its financial death, and has now been named as a last minute replacement for Jos Verstappen at Arrows, a team he had served well. It could be said that when you are a former race winner and your seat options are limited to either Minardi or Arrows, your days in Formula One are probably numbered. That said, Frentzen could well embarrass some of his detractors this season. Now powered by a Cosworth engine, recent Arrows cars have shown more than the odd turn of speed, and perhaps the somewhat moody German still has enough motivation to show some of his former employers that they were wrong to sack him.

21. Enrique Bernoldi

Enrique Bernoldi gets a second year at Arrows courtesy of Red Bull cash and so welcomes his new teammate Heinz-Harald Frentzen to Leafield, whilst Jos Verstappen gets unceremoniously booted out the door. Last season Bernoldi's main claim to fame was his performance at Monaco, where he held up the McLaren of David Coulthard for many laps. This was, perhaps, a little unfair, as the Brazilian did show a fair turn of pace on a few occasions, and he now has the opportunity to boost his profile by measuring himself against a proven race winner.

22. Alex Yoong

The harsh reality is that Yoong owes his seat at Minardi more to the financial support he brings to the team than to his talent. This is not a unique situation, it has been part of the Grand Prix scene for generations and it is hardly likely, that in these difficult economic times the practise of hiring pay drivers will diminish. Yoong's challenge is simply to race as hard as he can and do his best.

23. Mark Webber

In some ways Mark Webber's career is a throwback to past days, when many Australian and New Zealand drivers went to Europe to advance their driving ambitions after initial success at home, and some observers compare his character with that of Alan Jones, Australia's last F1 Champion. Webber has already shown enough in F3000 over the past two years, and in early season testing with Minardi, to confirm that he has the talent to succeed in Formula One. Having the talent, though, is not always enough by itself to progress up the slippery slopes of the Grand Prix drivers' market, but Webber has already shown the mental toughness associated with so many Australian sportsmen and this augers well for his future.

24. Mika Salo

Mika Salo's career never really recovered from the three years he spent toiling with the Tyrrell team between 1995 and 1997. Now, at 35, and after a year spent away from the limelight pounding out the testing miles for Toyota, he will lead the Cologne based outfit's charge into Formula One and their quest for respectability. It will not be an easy assignment, as nothing in the Finn's driving history marks him out as a driver especially suited for the task of leading and developing such a big operation, and if the going gets tough Salo could well be one of the first casualties.

25. Allan McNish

It will be something of a dream come true when Allan McNish's Toyota finally gets to take the start in Australia, some twelve years after he first tested an F1 car for McLaren back in 1990. In between the Scot has learned more than most just how fickle the ways of top-level motor sport can be. He will be under pressure from the start to hold his place in a team that might surprise some of the established outfits once it finds its feet, and therefore becomes a more attractive option for rival drivers with more impressive resumes.