ATLAS F1 - THE JOURNAL OF FORMULA ONE MOTORSPORT
The Atlas F1 2002 Gamble



At the start of every season, the Atlas F1 team members do the brave thing and put our bets down on who will be the World Champion and which team will win the Constructors Championship. Each member was asked to bet on the top 5 drivers, ranking them from first to fifth, and likewise for the top 5 teams. The Number One received 5 points, Number Two received 4 points, and so forth. Collecting together everyone's votes results in what Atlas F1 predicts will be the WC and CC standings at the end of the season. Eight months from now, we'll know if we rule or if we're just a bunch of fools...


Pos Driver Total KL TC WG MS MG DW TO RH PR BT TK ML PE MJ MB DC RB ET BG
1 M.Schumacher 91 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
2 Montoya 70 3 1 3 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 3 3
3 Coulthard 57 4 5 4 2 2 3 4 3 3 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 4 4
4 R.Schumacher 35 1     1 3 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 2 2 2
5 Barrichello 17   2 2   1 2 2     1 1 3   1 1     1  
6 Raikkonen 12 2 3   3       1 1               1   1
7 Trulli 1                         1            
= Villeneuve 1                               1      
= Button 1     1                                

Pos Team Total KL TC WG MS MG DW TO RH PR BT TK ML PE MJ MB DC RB ET BG
1 Williams 84 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 3
2 Ferrari 82 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
3 McLaren 62 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
4 Renault 23 2   2 2 1 1   2 2     2 2   2   2 1 2
= Sauber 23 1 2 1   2 2 1 1   2 2 1 1 2 1   1 2 1
6 Jordan 8       1     2   1 1 1     1   1      
7 BAR 3   1                           2      


Karl Ludvigsen (KL)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Coulthard; 3. Montoya; 4. Raikkonen; 5. R. Schumacher
1. McLaren; 2. Ferrari; 3. Williams; 4. Renault; 5. Sauber

I'm picking 2002 as a strong year for the Williams and McLaren teams and for Michael Schumacher personally. Both British outfits have been doing their homework, working hard and testing hard. Both want to improve their reliability and will succeed. That will account for their finishing first and third in the team rankings, split by Ferrari, which will get there on the performance of a certain M. Schumacher. Rubens won't figure in the top five drivers, nor will he offer the support that Ferrari needs as a team. He will be trying too hard, and as a result will make more than his share of errors this season. Promising though Sauber has been in the pre-season, it will have one of its traditional declining years. Renault will push through with better reliability, impressive speed and two good drivers to place fourth among the teams.


Timothy Collings (TC)

1. Coulthard; 2. M. Schumacher; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Barrichello; 5. Montoya
1. McLaren; 2. Ferrari; 3. Williams; 4. Sauber; 5. BAR

David Coulthard is finally the number one man at McLaren and he will make the most of it. McLaren have designed an advanced car and the Michelin switch could prove to be a good move. After two years out of it, the team is desperate to win and they are going to give it all they've got to halt the Ferrari dominance.


Will Gray (WG)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Coulthard; 3. Montoya; 4. Barrichello; 5. Button
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Sauber

Ferrari are unlikely to be toppled from the top spot by the end of the season and Schumacher is likely to reign supreme again to take what would be a fabulous fifth title. But the teams battling behind Ferrari may swamp the Italian giant's second man Rubens Barrichello and it will be a close fight between McLaren and Williams. McLaren's Michelin move could help David Coulthard lead the chase of Schumacher again, although Kimi Raikkonen's lack of experience may cost McLaren second spot in the constructors' title race. Behind the top three, though, it looks like Renault could be top of the pile to complete a stunning comeback from the doldrums of last year. Jenson Button could show his form again.


Marcel Schot (MS)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Coulthard; 5. R. Schumacher
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Jordan

I can see this one going to the wire between Schumacher and Montoya. It can go either way, but I'm inclined to think Montoya's temperament will cost him enough points to lose the battle by a whisker. Raikkonen over Coulthard might seem illogical, but the young gun is blazing with ambition and has proven he's got the speed, while Coulthard will most probably lack consistency over the season once again. Ralf will make good use of the Williams power, but with the team embracing Montoya as their rising star, Ralf will get hurt by a lack of support.

It's the end of the world as we've known it for the past four years. Williams now has two very good drivers and without Montoya needing to get settled, they should be able to take on Ferrari from the start. I think the Maranello team will lose out in the Constructors' Championship because of Barrichello's position. With only warnings and no backing coming his way, the Brazilian could be sliding further down the spiral very well. McLaren has another strong pair of drivers, taking third easily, while Renault will continue what they showed in the last race of 2001. Fifth is a bit of a blind pick between Jordan, BAR, Jaguar and Sauber. Could be anyone and they won't score a lot of points. Fisichella's experience and Sato's raw speed could give them the edge.


Mark Glendenning (MG)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. R. Schumacher; 4. Coulthard; 5. Barrichello
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. McLaren; 4. Sauber; 5. Renault

Michael's overall package is still superior to that of his rivals, although the gap is closing. Also, Schuey's clear number one status at Ferrari will ultimately give him an extra edge over the more level playing fields at Williams and McLaren. With two very strong drivers and arguably the most powerful engine on the grid, the Williams pairing will make it difficult for DC to crack the top three.

No great surprises in the top three constructors. Next year may well be a different story, but Ferrari are going into 2002 looking well-sorted. Williams have the speed, although the car is not quite where they'd like it to be just yet, while McLaren just don't look ready to take on and beat two Ferraris and two Williams's on a consistent basis.

Sauber are clearly setting themselves up as 'the best of the rest' - a situation that seemed laughable a couple of years ago. Meanwhile, Benetton seemed to be finally making some inroads at the end of last season. They've got some good people on board, the new car has looked promising in testing. It would be little surprise to see the reborn Renault occupy the fifth spot on the constructor's table at the end of the year - particularly if the Honda teams continue to under-perform.


David Wright (DW)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Coulthard; 4. Barrichello; 5. R. Schumacher
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. McLaren; 4. Sauber; 5. Renault

With 2002 seeing rule stability for a change, I see a similar pattern to that of last year's developing, with a battle between the big three - Ferrari, Williams and McLaren. Testing has led to more confusion than anything else, but I expect a more reliable Williams to take the fight to the World Champions Ferrari team, with McLaren close behind, while the returning Renault should continue on from where Benetton left off last year. The most interesting battle this year should be to see if Arrows can challenge Jaguar, if Minardi can improve and how well debutants Toyota do.


Thomas O'Keefe (TO)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Coulthard; 3. Montoya; 4. Barrichello; 5. R. Schumacher
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. McLaren; 4. Jordan; 4. Sauber

I see the Red Tide ultimately sweeping away all before it, but not without a fight this time around. This season will evolve as did the amazingly competitive 15-race 1974 season, where 7 different drivers (Fittipaldi, Peterson, Reutemann, Scheckter, Lauda, Regazzoni and Hulme) won in 5 different marques (McLaren, Lotus, Brabham, Tyrrell and Ferrari). McLaren-Ford and Fittipaldi won that year, but until the end of the season, McLaren, Ferrari and Tyrrell were all in contention; indeed, Fittipaldi and Regazzoni were tied in points before the last race of the season at Watkins Glen.

In the 17-race 2002 season, David Coulthard and Kimi Raikkonen will together take at least five races from Michael Schumacher and Juan Montoya will win at least three races on his own, with Ralf chipping in at least two victories. I am also counting on at least one surprise winner from the Best of the Rest classes, probably a Honda and possibly because of rules infractions by the others. The fight will go down to Suzuka where Schumacher will just edge out either Coulthard or Montoya to take his place alongside Fangio as a five-time World Champion, running the 2003 spec Ferrari.


Roger Horton (RH)

1.M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Coulthard; 4. R.Schumacher; 5. Raikkonen
1.Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Sauber

I originally thought Michael Schumacher was a strong favourite for the Championship, but the accidents in testing and the delayed race debut of the F2002 suggests to me that Ferrari are not as well prepared for the new season as they would like. He still gets the nod over Montoya, as I am sure the Williams teammates will take points off each other during the season. Coulthard, as always, will be there or thereabouts all season and will come under increasing pressure from Raikkonen as the year progresses. In the constructors' battle the top three pick themselves, but I am picking Williams to take the top slot with the help of both BMW and Michelin. I am expecting Renault to be the most improved team and to take the position as 'best of the rest', ahead of Sauber.


Paul Ryder (PR)

1. Montoya; 2. M. Schumacher; 3. Coulthard; 4. R. Schumacher; 5. Raikonnen
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Jordan

My head tells me Schumacher will win his 5th World Championship. My heart, however, would love to see Montoya capture his first Formula One crown during a spectacular season. Wishful thinking or otherwise, Montoya is my Champion this season. Schumacher, suffering a less than perfect season, will finish second after a closely-fought Championship based on nerve and mind games. Coulthard, in what may be his best chance of success yet, will fail to produce the speed to beat Montoya and Schumacher when it matters. Ralf Schumacher may struggle to come to terms with a quicker Montoya, and may be prone to mistakes due to the pressure this will bring onto his shoulders. Raikonnen will put in a solid and impressive performance in his first year at McLaren.

Williams will benefit from their massive testing programme and show great reliability and performance to take the Constructors' crown from Ferrari, who - after a slow start to the year with the F2001 - will lose valuable points. McLaren will be the third team of the top three, promising to be back on form in 2003. Renault will show impressive performance to take fourth. Jordan will retain fifth place.


Bruce Thomson (BT)

1. Montoya; 2. M. Schumacher; 3. Coulthard; 4. R. Schumacher; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Sauber; 5. Jordan

I agonized over this. In the end I pick Juan Montoya over Schumacher because I think that Williams seem to have been playing a little too coy in the run up to the season and think that the car they run at Melbourne may not be exactly what they have run so far. Having said that Ferrari and Schumacher will both be hard to beat regardless, but if Montoya gets the car, he can unsettle the Ferrari man. I don't think that McLaren will give David or Kimi a quick enough car to compete with the Ferrari and the Williams and this will most likely be down to their power unit.

If I go by my driver picks, I almost have to pick Williams as Constructors' Champions. In the end I think they will be, but if they are, it will be by a tiny margin over Ferrari. McLaren are likely to be a slightly distant third, with Sauber just pipping Jordan for 4th, as I think that last year's Ferrari engine will still be better than this year's Honda.


Tom Keeble (TK)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. R. Schumacher; 4. Coulthard; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Sauber; 5. Jordan

The strong driver pairing from Williams should see them scoring consistently this year. Provided their basic reliability is sorted out, the team could take the Constructor's Championship. However, should they faulter, Ferrari will take advantage...

For the Drivers' Championship, Williams refusal to back one driver could open the door for Schumacher, even if Williams is a stronger team overall. McLaren should also be stronger this year: they should keep Williams and Ferrari honest, but can only expect to do better than third if they have finally ironed out all those gremlins. Behind the front three, it's going to be tough knocking Sauber out from fourth place - Renault have made up ground hand over fist, while both Honda runners are also looking to step forward. However, Sauber's Ferrari engine, and inspired chassis, will keep them a tough team to beat.


Michele Lostia (ML)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Barrichello; 4. R. Schumacher; 5. Coulthard
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Sauber

Shunts, age, family, Championships: nothing seems to affect Michael Schumacher's thirst for success, and it looks like he'll have the car to retain his crown this year. Barrichello, Ralf Schumacher, and Coulthard will scrap for 3rd position, while rising star Montoya will mount the main challenge to King Michael.

Ferrari will gain valuable points at the start of the season with their trusty F2001, while the F2002 will give them the performance advantage required to win the Constructors' Championship. After some careful pre-season sandbagging, Williams-BMW, thanks to having more experience with Michelin tyres, will have the upper hand on McLaren-Mercedes. Renault, taking advantage of the evolution of their revolutionary engine, and Sauber, led by their young guns Heidfeld and Massa, will slightly come ahead of the Honda-powered teams.


Pablo Elizalde (PE)

1. Montoya; 2. M. Schumacher; 3. Coulthard; 4. R. Schumacher; 5. Trulli
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Sauber

Formula One needs a change this year. After one of the most boring Formula One seasons in some time and despite being the favourite to win again in 2002, Michael Schumacher will lose out to Juan Pablo Montoya in the title race, and the show will benefit from it. Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but if Williams can deliver the reliability they missed last year, Montoya will show he is ready to give Schumacher more than a good run for his money. I expect David Coulthard to struggle to beat Kimi Raikkonen, and though his experience will help him in the Championship, this will not be his year either. Ralf will also have a hard time managing his quick teammate, and, with Renault as the dark horse, Jarno Trulli will be able to shine again.

With the BMW engine and Michelin tyres, if Williams are able to find the ever so important reliability, the talents of their drivers will be enough to make them return to the top, in spite of Ferrari and Michael Schumacher. The battle will be close, but the Williams pair will be too strong. I expect McLaren to have a similar year to 2001, with some victories but without that extra bit that will allow them to fight for the title. Renault mean business and they will show it already this year, while Sauber will keep their momentum going and will finish ahead of more powerful teams.


Mark Alan Jones (MJ)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. R.Schumacher; 4. Coulthard; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Sauber; 5. Jordan

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Paint the cup red now - Michael will become the second man to win five titles, and it's not open to debate. Williams will be second and third and take the Constructors' Championship, after Rubens lets the Scuderia down. I'm not sure which Williams driver will finish on top, as Ralf will finish more races, but Montoya will be faster so I'll jump on the JPM bandwagon and pick him. Coulthard will find himself this year playing a best of the rest role in what is essentially a rebuilding year for McLaren, no matter how much Ron and DC might tell us otherwise. For the final point, the superiority of the Ferrari should help Barrichello see off a group of challengers.

The other talking points of the year will be the performance of Sauber and Jordan's hot drivers. Sato will be more impressive, but Heidfeld will score enough points to keep Sauber barely clear of Jordan. One or two points in it.


Marcel Borsboom (MB)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. R. Schumacher; 3. Montoya; 4. Coulthard; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. Mclaren; 4. Renault; 5. Sauber

2002 will continue where 2001 left off, with Ferrari still the strongest but Williams knocking on the door. Michael Schumacher will once again take the title, but it won't be as easy as it was in 2001. With two strong drivers in Ralf Schumacher and Montoya, Williams should take the Constructors' Championship. Ferrari will find out that Barrichello is not good enough to compete with the Williams drivers and because of that they will finish second.

Mclaren have an inexperienced driver and a driver who can't be consistent over a whole season, but the MP4/17 will be good enough to finish third in the Constructors' Championship even with a less capable driver couple. Renault and Sauber will battle for 4th place. Sauber will have the upper hand in the first half of the season and Renault in the second half. Nick Heidfeld will once again score some podiums for Sauber and Massa will have a tough season but he will get better and more consistent in the end.


Don Capps (DC)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Coulthard; 4. R. Schumacher; 5. Villeneuve
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. BAR; 5. Jordan

Taking the viewpoint that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, I think that there will be relatively little shifting and sorting for the 2002 season, but there will be some slipping and sliding. While Michael Schumacher might emerge with another crown this season, he will get little support from teammate Barrichello, therefore Williams takes the Constructors' Cup. I think Villeneuve still has "it" and might be a real surprise this season.

Shock predictions: Ferrari, Williams, and McLaren might not be the only teams to win a race this season; look for at least one or two events to have their final run this season (probably the British and Belgian rounds at their current venues); and, look for the Minnows to start dying off, with either Arrows or Minardi perhaps not finishing the season.


Richard Barnes (RB)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Coulthard; 4. R. Schumacher; 5. Raikkonen
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Sauber

Juan Pablo Montoya will emerge as the biggest threat to Michael Schumacher's crown, but the German's vast experience and another super-reliable year from Ferrari will see him through to a fifth title. David Coulthard will be unstoppable at times, but will again lack the season-long consistency to overcome the top two, and will end up regretting lost opportunities again. Ralf Schumacher's rivalry with Montoya will handicap both of them, and the younger Schumacher sibling will mix some excellent drives with races in which he will simply underperform. Kimi Raikkonen will not be overawed by the exalted company at the head of the grid but, in only his second season and in a new team, he will not be able to match the other four consistently enough to claim anything higher than fifth in the WDC.

Williams will be the best overall package, their cumulative drivers' total just ousting another outstanding season for Schumacher at Ferrari. McLaren will run the top two very close, the odd driver error and technical DNF costing them a top two spot. Renault will build on a very impressive finish to the 2001 season, and will emerge as the team most likely to (again) break the Ferrari-Williams-McLaren stranglehold on F1 Championships. Sauber will also maintain the momentum from last season, and will just manage to hold off the rest of the challengers to round out the top five.


Ewan Tytler (ET)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Coulthard; 3. Montoya; 4. R. Schumacher; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Sauber; 5. Renault

The podium finishers at Suzuka - Michael Schumacher, Juan-Pablo Montoya and David Coulthard - are the most likely contenders for the 2002 Drivers' Championship. It's really a question of which team and tyre manufacturer gets it right. Ralf Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello start the new season on an uphill slope while Kimi Raikkonen's inexperience could be a factor limiting his final point tally. If the big three teams falter, Nick Heidfeld may be seen on a few podiums.

If BMW produce a reliable engine and Michelin get it right, Williams have a real chance of regaining the Constructors' Cup. Ferrari have rolled the dice with their transmission, played safe with Bridgestone tyres but will start the season with their 2001 car. Michelin-shod McLaren have been impressive in pre-season testing but they must consistently finish. Sauber look like they still have the advantage in the best-of-the-rest contest but Renault might pull off some surprise results.


Biranit Goren (BG)

1. M. Schumacher; 2. Coulthard; 3. Montoya; 4. R. Schumacher; 5. Raikkonen
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Williams; 4. Renault; 5. Sauber

There is little chance the top 6 positions of the World Drivers' Championship will not be filled with the six men who drive for Ferrari, McLaren and Williams. And, once that has been established, their order of appearance is the only question left. It will be a close battle - perhaps even a three-horse battle, for the first time in years, but eventually I think Michael Schumacher and Ferrari's winning formula will do the trick. Nevertheless, the inter-team battle in Williams and McLaren will be the interesting one to watch.

I think people underestimate McLaren for 2002 and perhaps overestimate Williams. The fact is, McLaren needed to make less advancement from last year compared to Williams. And McLaren has been bleeding badly over the 2001 season. Don't underestimate the power of a Ron Dennis bruised ego. Sauber will benefit from an excellent engine and will fight with Renault primarily. I think the French team will get the upper hand, though, because of better drivers and better preparation for the task at hand.


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Volume 8, Issue 8
February 20th 2002

2002 Season Preview

2002 Drivers Preview
by Roger Horton

2002 Teams Preview
by Richard Barnes

2002 Technical Preview
by Craig Scarborough

Men and Motors
by Karl Ludvigsen

The Atlas F1 2002 Gamble

Articles

The FIA's Court of Appeal: Part IV
by Thomas O'Keefe

Off-Season Strokes
by Bruce Thomson

Columns

Elsewhere in Racing
by Mark Alan Jones

The Weekly Grapevine
by The F1 Rumours Team



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