The 2005 season is likely to be crucial for Formula One: the carmakers will want to finally sort out the sport's future, while the FIA will hope to start cutting costs drastically, Ferrari's rivals will seek to end the Italian squad's domination, and the fans will demand an exciting season following the one-sided 2004. Atlas F1's Richards Barnes analyses what can be expected from 2005

This time one year ago, the Formula One empire was in great shape. After several dull years of Ferrari and Michael Schumacher dominance, the 2003 season provided an unexpectedly thrilling final quarter in which Schumacher ultimately clinched the WDC title at the final race in Japan.

The natural expectation was that 2004 would provide more of the same, Schumacher using the racecraft acquired during his extraordinary career to stay that crucial half a step ahead of a young, aggressive and hungry pack. Or perhaps succumbing to them...

It would have been a fitting finale to the Schumacher era, with the natural passing of the mantle from one generation to the next. Instead, we got the 2004 season, as uninspired a whitewash as the sport has ever seen.

The only bright points of the 2004 season (other than Schumacher's jaw-dropping consistency and excellence) were the emergence of BAR's Jenson Button as a potential champion, and the success of the new events in China and Bahrain. Fittingly, these two highlights are also reflective of the on- and off-track trends that will mark the 2005 season. They also mark the class struggles that have come to symbolise F1 today, and 2005 will be the year of the struggle.

Modern F1 has become an empire that seeks to expand its borders and influence, even while failing to keep its existing citizens truly satisfied. The discontent is felt throughout the sport, from the major bank shareholders (who inherited their stake due to the collapse of Germany's Kirch media group) to the teams and through to the drivers and fans. Everyone is agreed that exposing F1 to new markets is a valuable and profitable exercise. The disagreement centres, as ever, around the issues of power and money. And equally predictably, the man in the middle is F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone.

Ecclestone has been challenged on one front by the three banks (Bayerische Landesbank, JP Morgan and Lehman Brothers) with majority shareholding in SLEC, which in turn owns Formula One Holdings and the commercial rights to F1. He also faces a challenge on another front by the major manufacturers threatening to form the Grand Prix World Championship (GPWC) breakaway series. Ecclestone could feel the brunt of the F1 class struggle turning into all-out revolt unless these key stakeholders are accommodated to some extent in 2005. While these are not new power struggles, they are becoming increasingly urgent.

There have been conciliatory moves, with Ecclestone offering to effectively double the teams' revenue in exchange for a new agreement when the current Concorde Agreement expires in 2007. In turn, the bank shareholders have stated their wish to keep working closely with Ecclestone and the teams in resolving the situation. However, Ferrari President Luca di Montezemolo is adamant that 2005 must provide a definitive answer, one way or the other, for the sport's future.

The more visible class struggles, and the ones that matter more to the vast global television audience, are those between the teams on the track. Ford's withdrawal from the sport in 2004, coupled with the marginal viability of Jordan and Minardi, has necessitated drastic cost-cutting measures. Although the worst case scenario (of only seven constructors entering the 2005 season) has been averted, the gap between the major manufacturer haves and the privateer have-nots is still a serious impediment, particularly in a sport which owes so much heritage and history to the innovation of privateers like Ken Tyrrell.

While cost-cutting measures have not been finalised yet, the introduction of the FIA's new technical regulations may theoretically help the smaller teams. They will be allowed to continue running output-limited 3 litre V10s while the major manufacturer teams are downscaling to the new-spec 2.4 litre V8s. However this change is only scheduled for 2006. For 2005, aerodynamic specifications have been revised, engines must now last for two full race weekends, and only one set of tyres is allowed for qualifying and the full race.

While the changes were designed primarily to reduce speeds and increase safety, there is the eternal hope that any regulation changes will help to resolve the other class struggle among the teams - between have-it-all Ferrari and the have-nothing opposition. Five seasons into the new millennium, Ferrari and Michael Schumacher are the only two winners of 21st century constructors' and drivers' titles. The sport could conceivably survive, even thrive, with fewer teams - provided they were evenly matched. Several more seasons of scarlet dominance will be far more harmful to F1's image as an exciting spectacle and the pinnacle of engineering competition.

Unlike the power struggles in other areas of F1, the battle to unseat Ferrari cannot be resolved on the principle of equity. If the regulations are driven by the sport's group interests, the allocation of trophies and championship points certainly aren't. On the contrary, it's the ultimate capitalist 'survival of the fittest' enterprise. Ferrari and Michael Schumacher are not going to make things any easier for their rivals, as witnessed by their opposition to the other teams' consensus to reduce testing. And the new regulations won't help either.

If anything, the regulations will favour Ferrari. They have shown great adaptability in unfamiliar conditions, and have won every new race on the calendar this century. Schumacher has legendary ability to adapt his style to changing conditions, and the Scuderia's team hierarchy and engineers have also worked together longer than those of other teams. Building an engine that will last for two race weekends, and working with Bridgestone to develop a tyre to last a full race distance, will not prove especially challenging for Maranello.

Neither will the crowded 2005 calendar pose a challenge to the Ferrari logistical behemoth. After an unprecedented 18-race season in 2004, Turkey is added to the mix for a new high of 19 championship events in 2005. With four Grands Prix in July alone, F1 fans will be inundated with quantity racing during 2005. Whether they also receive quality racing, while the major players sort out the myriad off-track issues plaguing the sport, will be the story of the 2005 season – and quite possibly the future of F1 itself.

Contact the Author Contact the Editor