ATLAS F1 - THE JOURNAL OF FORMULA ONE MOTORSPORT
The Confidence Trick

By Richard Barnes, South Africa
Atlas F1 Magazine Writer



Sunday's inaugural Chinese Grand Prix proved to be a curate's egg of an event, mixing a combination of new factors with varying degrees of success. The first was the premise of the event itself, the first Grand Prix to introduce live Formula One to the burgeoning Chinese market, and at a spanking new Hermann Tilke layout to boot.

While the new track met and exceeded all requirements and lived up to the Chinese organisers' expectations, there was a distinct lack of novelty and freshness about it. All and sundry were suitably effusive in their praise, but in essence it's just another Tilke layout. From the sumptuous facilities to the eye-catching main grandstand design, the highly technical complexes of switchback corners and the designated overtaking spot under braking for a V-shaped hairpin at the end of an improbably long straight, it's pure Tilke. As suited as it is to the technical requirements of modern F1, we've seen it all before - and are likely to see it even more in the future.

Part of Grand Prix racing's historical appeal has been the eclectic diversity of the tracks. From the claustrophobic urban setting of Monaco to the flat-as-a-pancake treeless ex-airfield at Silverstone to the gradients and forests of Spa-Francorchamps, each stop on the calendar had its own distinct character. As meticulous and media-friendly as the Tilke designs may be, they also lend a homogeneous feel to modern F1 racing - the very opposite of what is expected in a truly international sport. On its own merits, the new Shanghai circuit is fully worthy of the praise heaped upon it by the drivers. When viewed in the context of a season calendar featuring ever more Tilke layouts, its appeal diminishes.

In keeping with the newness of the inaugural Chinese GP, the television producers also tried some new wrinkles, again with mixed results. The improved graphic readout of the cars' rev counter, now augmented by a crude speedometer and throttle and brake indicators, was a change for the better. However, the much-hyped interception of driver to pit radio communications was the damp squib of the broadcasting year. Banal requests urging drivers to conserve fuel on their slow-down lap after qualifying, or to warm up their tyres on the formation lap before the start of the race, were never going to satisfy the voyeuristic needs of the television audience. If there is insightful dialogue between driver and pit crew, we certainly weren't privy to it.

The key element of Sunday's GP, however, was not the new track nor the television experiments. Instead, it was the effect that the race had, and will have, on the confidence levels of several major players. As the season winds down, the time for excuses is over. The cars have been developed as much as they will be, the championship scenarios are approaching resolution, and drivers and teams can no longer indulge in wishful thinking, that results will magically improve if given enough time.

For the drivers, confidence is particularly crucial at this stage of the season. A strong finish to the year will not only propel them and their teams up the championship rankings, it will also lead to a brighter off-season and, hopefully, momentum going into the new year. The Chinese GP was bad news for most.

Ferrari's Rubens Barrichello was naturally buoyant after recording the first back-to-back wins of his career. However, behind all the public celebrations, Barrichello himself will be acutely aware that Sunday's win was merely a continuation of the annual ritual at Ferrari - that the Brazilian only comes to the fore when there is no longer any chance of him challenging Michael Schumacher for the WDC title. Barrichello needs to be showing this sort of form in March and April each year, not September and October. That will always be a case of 'too little, too late'.

For the champion himself, the weekend's failure will be little more than an annoyance. While Ferrari continued their recent tradition of winning the first race at new (or heavily revised) circuits, it's invariably been Schumacher claiming the honours. Although he was required to defer to Eddie Irvine in the inaugural race at Sepang in 1999, Schumacher utterly dominated the race. He added wins at the revised Indianapolis and Hockenheim circuits in 2000 and 2002 respectively, and continued the trend at Bahrain earlier this season. China has been his sole failure on a new circuit in recent years.

It was the sort of weekend that Schumacher suffers occasionally, when nothing seems to go right. Monaco 1998 and Australia 1999 were other weekends that spring readily to mind. Two accidents at Monaco saw him finishing well out of the points and lapped by the leaders, and a puncture and steering wheel electronics problems also demoted him to the ranks of the also-rans in Australia. Perhaps Schumacher's guardian angel took the weekend off. Or perhaps, in a perverse attempt to atone for the earlier part of the year and restore equity, fate handed the German a season's worth of driving errors and technical problems all in one race. Whatever, it will take more than one dismal weekend (or even several in short succession) to dent Schumacher's supreme self-confidence and belief.

For Renault's Jacques Villeneuve, returning to F1 after almost a full season in the wilderness, China served as a rude awakening of just how far the sport develops in a single year. By his own admission, Villeneuve was caught off guard by the ability of the new tyres to sustain a cracking pace from lap one. Although, even with the excuse of his eleven month layoff, Villeneuve will not have expected to be so comprehensively outgunned by teammate Fernando Alonso. Alonso's upbeat assessment of Villeneuve's performance may not help. Praise from a teammate is often a double-edged sword. It could mean that he's genuinely impressed - or that he feels absolutely no threat to his superiority and can thus afford to be generous.

If Villeneuve found China to be tough, Suzuka in two weeks time will be even harder. Not only is Villeneuve fighting to re-establish his credentials in the sport and impress 2005 employer Sauber, he is also expected to help Renault snatch second place away from BAR in the Constructors' Championship - and all while learning a new and notoriously temperamental car. Alonso's post-race comment, that he is now effectively battling the pair of BAR drivers on his own, won't help. If Villeneuve can perform at Suzuka, then he fully deserves his place in F1.

Perhaps the most crucial 'confidence trick' on Sunday was Jenson Button's fourth second place finish of the year. When Button scored his first career podium at Malaysia earlier in the year, it was cause for celebration. Further podiums at Bahrain, San Marino and Monaco visibly boosted the Englishman's confidence, and talk of a maiden victory seemed justified. Since then, Button has racked up another five podium placings, but the debut win still eludes him.

The problem is not that Button is coming so close without actually winning, it's how he's achieving his podium finishes. If he was starting in the midfield and fighting his way through the pack to snatch an unlikely second or third each time, he'd have every reason to be delighted. Instead, for the second race in a row, Button has looked to be in the prime position midway to three-quarters of the way through the race - only to see the fast-finishing Ferrari of Barrichello scampering past to snatch victory.

Button's and BAR's decision to run one stop less than Barrichello in both Italy and China are not helping his cause. The fewer pitstops put Button in great track position entering the latter stages of the race. But, with heavier fuel load and/or more worn tyres, he has not been able to match Barrichello's pace, and has had to surrender the lead on both occasions. In combination with his ultra smooth and unflustered style, it gives the impression that Button is unable to up the ante, that he's a 'one speed' driver who can't respond to the pace of the other drivers around him.

Button is mature and sensible enough to drive his own race, and not to try and hoodwink the fans with displays of ragged, flashy and (for his style) slower driving. He and BAR team chief David Richards also have the confidence to insistent that the strategy they have chosen is, for them, the fastest possible one. Nevertheless, the seemingly endless frustration of getting into a promising race position, only to have the win snatched away in the closing stages, must be affecting his confidence levels. The elusive maiden win has become the proverbial monkey on both Button's and BAR's back, and one that both are fervent to shake. With Button's future at BAR still uncertain, a victory before the end of this season is becoming crucially important for both driver and team.

Panicking at this stage, and adopting an off the wall strategy to try and force the issue, would be unlikely to produce the result they desire. Instead, it could well compromise Button's remarkable consistency, and allow Renault back into the championship hunt. David Richards has the philosophical approach that BAR can only perform to their potential. If Ferrari are faster on the day, then copying Ferrari's tactics isn't going to suffice. Button needs to just keep following the Schumacher and Raikkonen approach, and putting himself squarely on the dance floor weekend after weekend. The win will follow in its own good time - and probably when they least expect it.

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Volume 10, Issue 39
September 29th 2004

Atlas F1 Exclusive

Interview with Vitantonio Liuzzi
by David Cameron

Interview with Paul Stoddart
by David Cameron

Bjorn Wirdheim: Going Places
by Bjorn Wirdheim

Ann Bradshaw: Point of View
by Ann Bradshaw

2004 Chinese GP Review

2004 Chinese GP Review
by Pablo Elizalde

Technical Review: China
by Craig Scarborough

The Confidence Trick
by Richard Barnes

Stats Center

Qualifying Differentials
by Marcel Borsboom

SuperStats
by David Wright

Charts Center
by Michele Lostia

Columns

The F1 Insider
by Mitch McCann

On the Road
by Reuters

Elsewhere in Racing
by David Wright & Mark Alan Jones

The Weekly Grapevine
by Dieter Rencken



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