So, three of 18 races down, and a full house for Michael Schumacher and Ferrari – three poles, three wins and 30 points. Worse (for the opposition, that is) is the fact that Rubens Barrichello sits in second spot, with 21 points out of a possible 24 – the shortfall being due to a ‘safe' tyre choice in Malaysia, which saw the Brazilian come in fourth.

In the Constructors' Championship, Ferrari leads by 51 points to the 22 of Renault, with BAR-Honda and Williams- BMW locked on 19. McLaren-Mercedes looks plain woeful in fifth on just four points. For the rest it looks even worse: Sauber has a single point, as does Jaguar, whilst Toyota, Jordan and Minardi have fat zeroes. Shades of 2002 – when Ferrari won 15 out of 17 Grands Prix and the Drivers' Championship was over by France, by the first week in July, then? Another Red Yawn?

At first sight, maybe. But, dig deeper, and you'll find enough reasons to keep watching, to not chuck the TV straight out of the closest window, to ensure your (European) summer holidays take in at least one foreign event. The Championship still has, after all, 15 more Grands Prix - almost as many races still run as made up the entire 2003 season - and, as in 1999 (when Schumacher broke a leg) proved, or as in 2003 - when Williams put in a late spurt - anything can happen.

But, before depending upon pessimism or optimism for our viewing salvation, let us analyse the races to date. In fact, Barrichello's position in Malaysia - his lowest points placing since Canada last year, and equalling his German 2002 fourth - provides the key, for the Brazilian had, in view of forecasts of scorching, cloudless skies on race day, logically chosen hard Bridgestones. Michael Schumacher, though, had gambled on softer rubber. Then, as his luck would have it, it was cloudier and considerably cooler than expected.

So, just how much has the weather affected the season to date?

AUSTRALIA
Air temperature 24°C; Track temperature 24°C; overcast/cloudy/rain spots

Sure, Ferrari was simply (far) better prepared – as is to be expected from a team commanding a budget of $336m, as per BusinessF1's March 2004 issue, or an average of $9,33m per car, per race (McLaren $8,7m; Renault $8,33m; Williams $7,66m; BAR $6,77m) – but, there is no doubt, weather played its part in the Reds' 1-2 victory.

That Michelins are better in hot, dry weather goes without saying, and, the French company reasons, logically, since F1 follows the sun, the majority of its compounds should be aimed at sunnier, drier weather – with air/track temperatures upwards of +28°C/+35C° respectively. For tyre purposes, of course, it is not ambient, but track temperatures which are critical – and clouds (or their absence) obviously affects same. And, if cooler, cloudier weather comes to pass, Bridgestone holds the undisputed advantage.

So it happened in Melbourne. Despite a race weekend being held at the height of Australia's summer, and the need to significantly irrigate the track's surroundings in the months building up to the event due to drought, sun on Saturday and Sunday was a scarce commodity (with cloud cover aplenty), and, when little spats of rain fell shortly before the ‘Off', the fates of those on Michelins were sealed.

One - Nil to the weather, then.

MALAYSIA
Air 30°C; Track 42°C; overcast/cloudy/rain during opening laps

It may have looked like a walk in the park for Schumacher, but the real story is told by Barrichello's fourth place - he chose the tyres that were logical for the forecast weather: 35°C/50°C and clear – with Juan-Pablo Montoya's pace as the track heated up towards the end of the 56-lap race adding the postscript.

But, as regularly occurs in equatorial regions, the weather turned – and, as likewise occurs, to Schumacher's distinct advantage – thus scuppering Barrichello's charge, who, despite being third on the grid and entering Turn 1 second (after Mark Webber's woeful start), was left to ride shotgun for Schumacher (against Montoya). He ultimately finished off the podium after a late stop for new rubber.

That Montoya was fast closing on Schumacher in the latter stages – before being baulked by Barrichello – is a matter of record; that the Colombian took fastest lap of the race (which Schumacher inevitably aims for as a matter of pride) tells its own story. This event was potentially one of the closest in recent times, even if its results do not reflect same.

In fact, had the weather happened as forecast (and, forget not, in terms of 2004's regulations, definitive tyre choices for Qualifying and Race need be made by 09:00 on Saturday), Schumacher would have battled with tyres as did Barrichello. Would the German have won? Doubtful, although only a fool ever writes the champion off.

Two – Nil to the weather.

BAHRAIN
Air 30°C; Track 30°C; overcast/cloudy, rain in the morning, plus threats during race

Here's a statistic which illustrates the story of the season so far: Bahrain has an annual rainfall of less than 75mm. Yet, on race day morning, it rained fully 10mm of those! And, whilst the average high temperatures for March/April are 26°C, clear sunny skies can mean surface temperatures of upwards of 50°C. But on Sunday the track temperature was only around 30°C. Michelin's runners were, again, hampered by uncharacteristically cloudy weather.

But, fear not, for a glimmer of hope was provided by Williams – in this case via Ralf Schumacher, who, after his robust defence of a retaliating Takuma Sato ended in gyration, fought back up the order and into the points.

His post-race comments bear repeating: "All in all, I am not too disappointed because I have seen from the data that I was running close to Ferrari's pace, whenever I had free track ahead. This leaves some room for hope." Quite...

But, hat trick to the weather thus far.

With F1 now heading for a (later by one week) start in Europe – and with Indianapolis' event pulled forward from end-September to late June, expect considerably hotter weather in forthcoming races. Of course, warmer temperatures do not automatically imply little or no cloud cover, but, during European summers, skies are generally clearer than in the Southern Hemispherian or Equatorial March. Think back to Barcelona and Budapest, Monaco or Montreal, Magny-Cours or Monza last year.

So, as unseasonal weather has aided Bridgestone's Ferrari thus far, so could future weather patterns assist Michelin's teams. As said, don't hurl your TV sets away just yet; in fact, book that Formula One holiday now, whether to Spain, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy or the Americas!

You're Chairman of the biggest motor manufacturing group in Europe, you market cars under seven different badges covering all market sectors, you know you need to get into Formula One (not least because your market competitors are), but your ex-Chairman, Ferdinand Piech - grandson of Dr Ferdinand Porsche – who still lurks powerfully in the background is, despite having a family history steeped in motorsport, totally anti-Formula One. In fact, during his reign, he consistently criticised the cost-effectiveness of F1 as a marketing platform, and turned down numerous opportunities for the Volkswagen Group to enter the category. But you are in charge now, even if put there by him.

Then you attend the Bahrain Grand Prix. You get spotted, obviously, in Sakhir, and suddenly people remember you were the man who signed off BMW's re-entry into F1 (then walked out over the Rover debacle), were the man who employed Gerhard Berger as Motorsport Director. So, why were you there, in Bahrain, of all places?

Okay, you attended the Spanish Grand Prix on numerous occasions - but you were CEO of SEAT at the time. Okay, you attended the German rounds, but, well, you are German and VW is German. Visiting the Chinese Grand Prix in September, too, would raise fewer eyebrows, for VW presently sells more cars in China per annum than it does in Germany - with astronomical sales increases forecast for the emerging country in future.

So, F1 is on your radar, but you have a problem. In fact, you have numerous problems: you can't enter as Audi – its unique selling features (quattro systems and aluminium space frames) have no place in F1; Volkswagen is successful enough and cannot risk its staid name through possible failure in the sport; SEAT is not marketed world-wide, and is, to many, still a Spanish Fiat; Skoda is neither international nor a real brand (yet), and is committed to rallying in any event. Lamborghini, for the moment in any event, suffers from an identity (and performance) crisis – and could not, for 10 years, at least, have the cache of Ferrari. Plus, the disastrous early 90s Larrousse-Lamborghini connection still lingers.

Somebody mentions Bentley, but the image is too mixed up with BMW's Rolls-Royce brand (the purchase of which you masterminded), plus the Green Machines had been chosen to do duty at Le Mans – against Audi initially, then (utterly successfully) in their own right once the Four Ring Chariots had moved into privateer hands.

You have the additional problem of risking brand values if one or other badge wins – should the Group win under, say, Volkswagen, how many customers would still choose Audi or Skoda? If under SEAT, why buy a Golf? Worse, the chosen brand suffers whilst the team hones itself – much as Mercedes paid enormously in the mid-nineties, and Jaguar and Ford are now. Not to mention the effects on Renault during its Benetton days and the aftermath of the Prost/Peugeot partnership.

So, what do you do?

You remember your own the illustrious Bugatti trade mark, and use that as conduit. Ettore Bugatti, an Italian, moved to the French-German Alsace region and founded his eponymous company there in the early 1900s. The company was mega-successful – its name appears on numerous Grand Prix trophies, including German, Belgian, Monegasque and French cups – until family tragedies and the World War destroyed the good name that single-handedly brought glory to le Bleu. Why, it even beat the Scuderia Ferrari-Alfa Romeo, Auto Union (Audi) and Mercedes-Benz entries pre-war! And, your Group is preparing the Veyron supercar – with 1000bhp and hi-tech everything – for market later this year.

Suddenly, as Bugatti, the Group can make a low-profile, high-prestige entry without jeopardising its mass brands. And, when Bugatti wins, each brands' empathises its ties – much as Fiat, Lancia and Alfa-Romeo do when Maranello wins. F1's constitution does allow you to enter as a new operation as Bugatti (12 teams are permitted; ten are presently active). Why, the FIA (and Bernie Ecclestone) may even waive the bond required as guarantee of goodwill should VW so insist. But, as Toyota has proven, turn-key projects, even with limitless funding, do not ensure immediate success.

Hence your best option is to buy a team. Some are for sale, some always are - even if Ferrari, Williams, McLaren, Renault, Jaguar and Toyota are spoken for, or not available at present. But, four are…

BAR? Honda connections and tobacco connotations count against it despite the team's very real potential. And, there are too many shareholder issues for comfort. Jordan? Too small a factory, plus the very real problem of Eddie Jordan's irrepressible profile (and the Vodafone scandal). That leaves Minardi - too small, with minute premises, plus no guarantee that it will even qualify for travel or TV monies.

Oh, and Sauber. Suddenly it all fits. Peter Sauber would love a car manufacturer to bring lasting honour to his name and team, and majority shareholder Credit Suisse would welcome an out at the correct price, having bought equity when Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz disposed of his shares after a tiff with Sauber over the hiring of Kimi Raikkonen instead of Red Bull's then-protege Enrique Bernoldi. In January 2001 the Swiss outfit announced plans for the largest wind tunnel of any F1 team (completed December 2003), and rumours have it that a long-term VW contract justified its erection. Certainly, Peter Sauber did not deny same when questioned in January.

Sauber jointly owns an engine research company (Sauber Petronas Engineering) – established to improve Ferrari engines (!) - plus, of course, VW and Ferrari's sister company Maserati are known to be working towards joint road vehicle and transmission projects.

And, although Mateschitz is no longer a shareholder of Sauber, Red Bull still pumps millions (at last count $20m for 2004) into the team on a purely commercial basis. The drinks company's other motorsport project of this season? Volkswagen's Paris-Dakar programme with the Touareg…

Sauber has a Germanic culture, means ‘clean' in the tongue, is based in an Italian/German/French country, and races under a particularly evocative, almost Bugatti, blue. Being Swiss, the company falls outside EU laws – important when one of your companies is Czech, important when Europe is legislating maximum working hours and arrest warrants.