Atlas F1 Magazine Writer
Formula One moves into the unknown for the first time since 1999, for the first ever Middle East Grand Prix in Bahrain. The new track, the intense heat, and the sand are just a few of the challenges the teams will face in the Kingdom. Atlas F1's Tom Keeble previews the third round of the 2004 season and analyses the teams' chances of success
Analysis
Going to a new circuit is always something of an unknown, but there are some things that can still be worked on before the teams even arrive. They all have fairly detailed plans of the track, and a good understanding of the surface that has been laid. They all have a good idea of the temperatures expected.
What remains unknown are some potentially critical factors: how much sand will get on to the track, how badly it will affect wear and grip, and how much will get in to the works: in fact, being unable to change engines for the weekend could be problematic for a number of teams. If sand is getting through the air filters over the course of the weekend, there will be significantly increased wear, and engines won't be completing race distances.
The new circuit will offer Formula One's new boys their chance to show that they are able to keep up with their more experienced peers, on what should actually be a level playing field. Should the grip levels drop, then it could be informative to watch who starts spending their time off the black stuff.
Of course, it is made slightly more interesting by knowing that Michelin ran two sets of tyres there on last year's Williams, as Marc Gene demonstrated it to the public just ahead of the Malaysian Grand Prix. Quite why none of the other teams took up what was an open invitation to run at the circuit will probably never be known, but in the meantime, it does offer Michelin and Williams at least some idea of what tyres to take to the event.
Even so, there still plenty of doubt over the best number of stops to make. If the sand stays off the surface, tyre wear should be quite low, making two stops the optimum strategy. However, it offers little over a three-stop approach – with the added bonus that unexpected wear rates are easier to handle. Few are expected to consider four stops, as overtaking would be a requirement to make it work, but as a strategy, it might work for a team that can't get a handle on their wear rates.
Regarding competition at the front, if there is any circuit that is more likely to suit the Michelin profile than Malaysia, then this is it. Whilst Juan Pablo Montoya was clearly not in a position to challenge Michael Schumacher in Sepang, there is less likelihood of a cooler race day at this weekends event, potentially offering the Williams drivers what could be their only chance to run at a par with Ferrari in the first half of the season.
A Virtual Lap of Bahrain with David Coulthard
Although I've yet to drive the circuit, we obviously have information regarding the track available to us and can say that a lap of the new track at the Bahrain International Circuit begins on the long start-finish straight, which is just over one kilometre. We will probably reach the highest speeds on the circuit along the straight before braking hard for the slow tight right of turn one.
A short burst of power takes you to a left hander, which we may take quite quickly, keeping on the power through the turn, before the slight right of turn three that flicks you onto the second and shortest of the four straights. We will power along here, probably in top gear before dropping down the gears for the tight right of turn four. The sweeping left-right-left of turns five, six and seven follow, and we think this will be a very quick sequence as we meander through the back of the circuit.
We then will pick up speed on the exit for the short run down to the hairpin of turn eight. Another quick burst takes you to the two left handers of nine and ten, which will probably start off quite fast and then see us slow for ten. This then swings you round onto the third main straight that runs parallel to the start-finish straight. We should pick up significant speed before braking for the long left double-apex of eleven. It will probably be important to maintain our speed through here, as it leads onto another long and fast sweeping section of the track.
This then takes us to the long right of turn 14 which swings the track round onto the final straight. Powering up through the gears before braking for the final two right handers, which take you back onto the long start-finish straight to start another lap.
Team by Team
Ferrari
Having shown the field a clean pair of heels in the opening races, Michael Schumacher is clearly well set to continue the perfect start to his 2004 World Championship challenge. Even if the temperature eliminates Bridgestone's advantage at this circuit, the team have by far the best reliability record in the paddock, a package that is well understood and quick to set up, and a team that rarely drop the ball.
Add to the equation a likelihood of changing grip levels, if from the sand rather than water, and it is easy to see why this team are expecting at least one podium, and believe they can win the race.
Williams
Bahrain probably offers Williams their best chance to win a race in the first half of the season, before the circus heads to Europe and the cooler tracks that suit Ferrari and Bridgestone. However, in order to achieve a win, they will require at least a modicum of luck, as there is little doubt that Michael Schumacher was not flat out all for the whole race in Malaysia.
The development programme is running flat out back in the UK, but Ferrari are not sitting on the laurels either; neither team really expect the gap to close before the British Grand Prix, unless one of the tyre manufacturers makes a breakthrough. Considering the job that Bridgestone did over the winter, Michelin are convinced they can find half a second a lap, but when they'll find it is not being advertised.
In the meanwhile, it is vital that Williams take advantage of the high track temperatures expected at Bahrain in order to minimise the points difference, and keep the Championship open. And to do that, they need both drivers firing on all cylinders for the whole weekend: something that clearly wasn't the case in Malaysia.
McLaren
You might have thought that 2,000 miles of testing since the Malaysian Grand Prix would have been a good way for McLaren to improve their performance for the next event; however, the emphasis has been on improving reliability, over anything else. On the positive side for McLaren fans, a fair amount of the time was spent setting up the car on new tyres, which should translate to a better baseline to work from than before.
Considering their less than amazing performance to date, you would have thought McLaren would be dreading another fly-away race before they have had a chance to bring improvements online; however, they see Bahrain an opportunity to make the most of their years of experience, as there is a reasonable chance that other teams will be dropping the ball.
The lack of reliability has been frustrating, as being this far off the pace means every lost point is dropping further behind BAR and Renault, let alone closing the gap to Williams and Ferrari. Accordingly, the team are expected to take a fairly conservative approach to the race – aiming to be reliable to maximise their points haul, ahead of outright performance. The odds are strongly against a podium finish, but both drivers are capable of finishing in the top eight.
Renault
Renault believe that Bahrain should give them another chance to upstage Williams, provided they can get the car properly dialled in. According to simulations of the effects that sand has on the circuit, there could be surprisingly high wear rates. In this case, Renault's softly-softly approach to using tyres is going to be hugely beneficial, permitting them to run softer rubber than their main rivals.
Both drivers are working well with the team, and are capable of putting the car on the podium on a good weekend. That said, if BAR continue the form they showed in Malaysia, and Williams don't drop the ball, targeting the podium is optimistic, but both cars should finish in the points.
BAR
Following the podium in Malaysia, there is little doubt that BAR fancy their chances of repeating the trick in Bahrain, though no-one is are under any illusion that Ferrari, Williams or Renault will let it be easy.
From their race simulations, BAR expect to be as competitive in the desert as they were in Malaysia: though quite how it will pan out depends on some unknowns, particularly the wear rate as the biggest factor. If it is high, then Renault are the team to beat; if it is low, then they hope to push on Williams again.
Button is on a roll, and the team are rallying behind him – and whilst the last performance has undoubtedly raised expectations too far, the atmosphere is very positive; however there are some question marks still over his teammate. Whilst some hope that Takuma Sato will start to emulate Button, and improve his consistency, others fear the Japanese driver has a long way to go. This is critical, as getting both drivers scoring points now is vital to the team's prospects of finishing well in the Championship this year: every point lost now is going to prove expensive by the season close.
Sauber
Whilst Sauber have hardly set the world alight this year, there campaign already includes a World Championship point, and they have the first new aerodynamic components from their in-season programme coming out to Bahrain.
That said, this is not expected to be a Bridgestone track, so the team are very interested to discover just what they will have to do in order to get on terms with BAR, Renault and McLaren, let alone Williams and Ferrari. Accordingly, they are fully expected to lean on the reliability of their Ferrari engines, and look for points from attrition, rather than outright performance.
Jaguar
This circuit could offer Jaguar one of their better chances to score points this year. Although the R5 is still chewing up its tyres far quicker than the team would like, the outright performance that Mark Webber has been able to wring out of the car on a flying lap has given the whole team some considerable motivation.
That a front row qualifying position that was effectively wasted by a slow getaway in Malaysia was, in hindsight, perhaps a bit of a blessing: it offered sponsors a 'mishap' as explanation for the car's rapid descent through the field, whereas a clean start would have shown that half a dozen laps left the other Michelin runners with a distinct advantage over the lap.
Of course, a 50 percent reliability record is not something to take to a circuit that promises to stretch cars to their limit: detuning is not really an option, or there is no chance of getting in to the points, even if it did improve reliability. At a circuit with changing conditions and potentially elevated wear rates, there is every chance that Jaguar can again offer some excitement in qualifying, but they are clearly going to do well take points away from this race.
Toyota
Whilst the public face of Toyota appears to be looking forward to racing in Bahrain, the bottom lone is that the team are a long way off the pace, and there is little that can be done about it during the fly-away season. On the positive side, the team have produced a reliable car, so if enough of the competition drop out they might finish in the points. Certainly, they can expect to provide a decent buffer between the points scoring positions, and Jordan and Minardi.
Jordan
With disappointing performance on the track, and only a 50 percent finish rate, Jordan are not the hottest prospect for points in Bahrain. Add Bridgestone tyres to the equation, and they are set to be chasing a long afternoon of frustration. On the brighter side, at least the sponsors might be happy that the cars will be visible for a couple of minutes apiece in qualifying, and for a few seconds when they are being lapped.
Minardi
Minardi's position is remarkably similar to Jordan, except they are expected to struggle even to keep up with the Irish outfit. There is little doubt that they are popular, with some of the most knowledgeable fans, but between a lack of experience in the driving seats, and no budget for developing the car, there is little the team can do to maintain the gap to the better funded teams ahead, let alone close it.
Looking ahead, both drivers are visibly improving as they spend more time in the cars, which should lead to performance improvements in the order of seconds as they gain understanding of how to set up the package effectively. In the meanwhile, the shifting sands of Bahrain should at least be an interesting learning experience.
Flashback 1999
The last new Grand Prix on the calendar was, ironically, the Malaysian GP in 1999: it was the race that saw Michael Schumacher return to the car after a seven-race absence from breaking his leg at the British Grand Prix...and Eddie Irvine led the Championship from a motivated Mika Hakkinen.
Qualifying
Schumacher marked his return to the fold by qualifying on pole, with Irvine close alongside. Ferrari had hit the ground running in Malaysia, and led the competition by a second all weekend.
In this older-format qualifying, the best of 12 laps had seen David Coulthard and Mika Hakkinen filled the second row, with the Stewarts of Johnny Herbert and Rubens Barrichello looking comfortable in the third. With Damon Hill ninth for Jordan and Jacques Villeneuve tenth in the BAR, four World Champions had qualified in the top ten.
Other notables included Ralf Schumacher eighth and Alex Zanardi sixteenth for Williams, and Heinz-Harald Frentzen 14th in the other Jordan.
Race Highlights
From the start, Schumacher appeared to have the legs on the field, as he led comfortably, whilst Irvine fought to keep Coulthard behind. However, this was the race that saw Schumacher in the support role for a change, and he soon slipped back to let Irvine through, before playing havoc with the Scot, delaying the McLaren considerably... at least, until the Scot's car expired on lap 14.
The first round of pitstops saw little change, except Schumacher was now keeping Hakkinen back to make space for Irvine. He did such an effective job that, when the Finn stopped for the second time, he was stuck behind Johnny Herbert, who tussled for the position for several laps before Hakkinen could pass.
It was a masterful demonstration by Schumacher, who played his role perfectly all weekend, and showed that the time out had certainly not harmed his game – if anything it was better then ever. Indeed, Irvine was quoted saying "not only is Michael the best Number One driver – he is also the best Number Two."
However, there was more to come. In post-race scrutineering, the Ferrari's were disqualified, as the barge-boards were found to fall outside the regulations; a decision they appealed. It spawned ten days filled with rumour and speculation, before the appeal dismissed the findings of the race Stewards, as Ferrari successfully argued there case for tighter rules on how the measurements were made, as they demonstrated a circumstance under which the boards were legal.
Points paying positions:
1. Irvine (Ferrari) [ reinstated ]
Classified: 11 from 22 starters
The Bahrain Grand Prix is hosted at the Bahrain International Circuit – a brand new, purpose built track with the Sepang mastermind (Hermann Tilke) listed high amongst the designers. The weekend is not expected to see any rain, and the wear levels are almost completely unknown. Teams are expected to run high downforce settings.
2. Schumacher (Ferrari) [ reinstated ]
3. Hakkinen (McLaren Mercedes)
4. Herbert (Stewart Ford)
5. Barrichello (Stewart Ford)
6. Frentzen (Jordan Mugen-Honda)
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Volume 10, Issue 13
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Interview with David Richards
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