ATLAS F1 - THE JOURNAL OF FORMULA ONE MOTORSPORT
Musical Chairs

By Karl Ludvigsen, England
Atlas F1 Senior Writer



By the time you read this, Patrick Head will have briefed the entire Williams staff at Grove on the team's second consecutive one-two victory in a Formula One race. He took them through the entire weekend, from first qualifying to the last laps of the race, describing in detail what went right and what didn't. There won't have been much of the latter; the BMW Williams outfit scarcely put a wheel wrong at Magny-Cours. But Head's deeper insights into every aspect of the blue-and-white operation penetrated all aspects of the squad's operations, picking up and reporting the glitches that stood in the way of an even more dominant performance.

After the briefing, Patrick Head took questions from his team on a wide range of topics. Some of them touched on the speculation about next season's driver pairings, because Formula One's Silly Season starts revving up right about now. The buzz is especially loud this year because seven drivers run out of contract at the end of this season. They are Jacques Villeneuve, David Coulthard, Jarno Trulli, Nick Heidfeld, Heinz-Harald Frentzen, Antonio Pizzonia and Jos Verstappen. In addition, it seems likely that Giancarlo Fisichella will be a free agent after Jordan forced a halving of his pay for 2003, against the terms of his contract. That produces a lot of players for the next round of musical chairs.

So it's an opportune time to take a look at our current class of drivers and to try to see whom should be picked for what team and why. Or - to look at it differently - to try to scope the field the way the teams do - or should do. I'm going to start with the flat statement that 36 is old enough for a Formula One driver these days. Yes, I know that Nigel Mansell was a winner at the age of 40 in what passes for the modern game, but he was an exception. By the age of 36 you should have given your best to the sport and have served your teams with the full advantage of the racing know-how you've acquired.

With many drivers entering Formula One in their early 20s, much of that know-how is now being gained during Grand Prix seasons - somewhat to the dismay of present incumbents. "What's happening with the younger guys is that they haven't got the experience of the lower formulas now," said David Coulthard after his nasty avoidance of a slowing Fernando Alonso at the Nurburgring. "The mistakes that you made in the lower formulas, you now make in Formula One. If you're going to lift, you should pull off line. I had to do that [referring to Spa in 1998 and his tangle with Michael] to learn that I shouldn't do that."

Of course karting plays a big role in the development of today's drivers, and they learn a lot on the kart tracks before at least a year or two of seasoning in minor formulae. But as Coulthard says, there's still a lot to learn - especially about today's high-tech Grand Prix cars. So age has significant value. But there's a point at which strength, fitness, eyesight and reactions must give way to Father Time. The modern record shows that in Formula One that point is reached for the majority of drivers by 36.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the ages of our current drivers, together with some other parameters. They stack up as follows:

                                F1      POINTS   F1   
                                ENTRY   PER      YEARS
                         AGE    AGE     YEAR     LEFT 
Alonso, Fernando         21     19      20       15   
Pizzonia, Antonio        22     22       -       14   
Button, Jenson           23     20      13       13   
Raikkonen, Kimi          23     21      42       13   
Wilson, Justin           24     24       -       12   
Heidfeld, Nick           26     23       7       10   
Webber, Mark             26     25      11       10   
Montoya, Juan Pablo      27     25      60        9   
Schumacher, Ralf         27     21      37        9   
                                                      
Firman, Ralph            28     28       -        8   
Trulli, Jarno            28     22       9        8   
da Matta, Christiano     29     29       -        7   
Fisichella, Giancarlo    30     23      13        6   
Barrichello, Rubens      31     21      31        5   
Verstappen, Jos          31     22       2        5   
Coulthard, David         32     24      53        4   
Villeneuve, Jacques      32     25      31        4   
Schumacher, Michael      34     23      91        2   
Frentzen, Heinz-Harald   36     27      19        0   
Panis, Olivier           36     27       7        0   

I've divided the table in the middle. Those above the break have nine or more years to give to the sport, with young Alonso having an incredible 15 years left to compete. Those below the break have eight years or less to contribute before retirement. As a team owner, one rule of thumb could be that it would be best to have one driver from each group - one young hotshoe and one experienced older head. The teams that currently enjoy that status are Renault, McLaren-Mercedes, BAR-Honda, Sauber-Petronas and European Minardi. Teams with two from the younger group are Jaguar-Cosworth and BMW-Williams, while those with older pairs are Toyota, Jordan-Ford and Ferrari.

At Ferrari, it's suddenly and strikingly obvious that Rubens Barrichello is too old to be paired with Michael Schumacher. This is a team that urgently needs a driver from the younger category to partner Michael and build for the future. I know he's technically unavailable in the short term, but Jenson Button would be ideal. I see zero chance of his returning to BMW-Williams. Their two drivers are ideally positioned at the older end of the younger group. In 2009, through the end of the current BMW/Williams pact, both would be 33, with a rich blend of speed and experience. Williams would be crazy to break up this pairing.

Weak as it is, Jordan-Ford is likely to be something of a lottery. Firman is unproven, while - and I hate to admit it - Fisichella is bordering on being too old to be of serious interest to a major team on the rise. He could be of possible value to Jaguar, who are certain to give up on Pizzonia and who could use an older driver to pair with Mark Webber. But one hears that there's big-time pressure on the team to hire a German driver to help sagging Jaguar sales in that important market. That points straight to Nick Heidfeld, who would give Jaguar another older driver from the younger group - not a bad combination. Another possible choice - completing the deal that almost went ahead a few months ago - would be Alex Wurz, if Jaguar could afford his release fee from McLaren. I know he's Austrian, but he'd be very acceptable in Germany. After all, Ralf Schumacher races as an Austrian now.

Toyota have to take steps to get a younger driver on board who can grow up with this still-fledgling team. The one to go should be Panis, who has hit the age buffers. The same goes for H-H. Frentzen at Sauber, which could see the return of a more mature Massa to the cockpit plus a new recruit from outside if Heidfeld - as expected - moves. Nick Heidfeld could also be a candidate for Toyota, where he'd be right at home in the Cologne-based team.

I'd be surprised if there were any change in the Renault line-up. Although only 28, Jarno Trulli brings a remarkable six years of Formula One experience to his job, which perfectly complements Fernando Alonso's merits. In France, Trulli served notice that he's still a racer to be taken seriously. In the longer term Renault will be looking to the Briatore farm system to get a French driver into its squad. With a similar balance of age and experience, McLaren is also likely to stick with the status quo at contract renewal time.

When the music stops and everyone tries to grab a seat, it will be interesting to see if there's a place for Jacques Villeneuve. Though at the high end of the age range, the feisty Canadian still has something to give, and Formula One needs all the World Champions it can muster. If Toyota had a housecleaning, Jacques could be in the frame there. He'd certainly bring much-needed skill, determination and experience to that team. Villeneuve and Heidfeld at Toyota - that sounds good to me, but the Cologne outfit would then have to cease its ejection-seat driver policy and hang on to that pairing until 2007, when Jacques will be 36. That is, as I said, the end of the line for Grand Prix drivers.


About the author:
Long time columnist at Atlas F1, Karl Ludvigsen is an award-winning author and historian who managed racing programs for Fiat in America in the late 1970s and Ford of Europe in the early 1980s. He is the author of seven books about racing drivers and numerous books about classic racing cars and engines, all of which draw extensively on the many images in his Ludvigsen Library in Suffolk, England. This autumn will see publication of Karl's long-awaited work, the update of his epic Porsche - Excellence was Expected. It reveals for the first time details of the all-conquering McLaren-TAGs and the disastrous Footwork-Porsches. Information on the book and a pre-publication discount are available at the Robert Bentley website


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Volume 9, Issue 28
July 9th 2003

Atlas F1 Exclusive

Gerhard Berger: So Long to All That
by David Cameron

Articles

Tifosi IPO - the Finale
by Thomas O'Keefe

Ann Bradshaw: View from the Paddock
by Ann Bradshaw

2003 French GP Review

2003 French GP Review
by Pablo Elizalde

Musical Chairs
by Karl Ludvigsen

In the Balance
by Richard Barnes

Stats Center

Qualifying Differentials
by Marcel Borsboom

SuperStats
by David Wright

Charts Center
by Michele Lostia

Columns

Season Strokes
by Bruce Thomson

On the Road
by Garry Martin

Elsewhere in Racing
by David Wright & Mark Alan Jones

The Weekly Grapevine
by Tom Keeble



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