Imola was not supposed to be a Ferrari victory - certainly not in such a dominant fashion. But the Scuderia's 1-2 finish, ending a weekend where the team topped the timesheets in every single session, must surely suggest that Michael Schumacher's record-equalling 5th World Championship is just a matter of formality. Richard Barnes draws some conclusions from Sunday's race

Imola has never been a happy hunting ground for Ferrari. After Didier Pironi's infamous snatched victory over teammate Gilles Villeneuve in 1982, and Patrick Tambay's era-ending win a year later, the Scuderia struck out on San Marino home soil until back-to-back Schumacher victories in 1999 and 2000 broke the drought.

Even then, the wins were the result of rival mistakes and Ross Brawn's tactical acumen, rather than any inherent Ferrari superiority. Qualifying tells the tale of inherent mechanical superiority, and Schumacher's only Ferrari-powered pole at Imola (prior to Saturday) was in the supposedly uncompetitive 1996 car. Last season the losing pattern was resumed, with Schumacher barely making the second row of the grid and running in the minor placings until the car let him down for the first of only two mechanical retirements in 2001.

Against that background, Ferrari's rivals had reason for approaching the Imola weekend with optimism. 'Our season starts at Imola' has become a popular refrain in F1, as though the continental shift alone would level the playing fields and eradicate below-par early season performances. Ferrari squashed those false expectations with the most emphatic Imola victory in 20 years. And, even with the cool spring temperatures working more for Bridgestone than their Michelin-shod rivals, the F2002's dominating performance and flawless reliability give the impression that Michael Schumacher's record-equalling fifth WDC title is now a mere formality.

It's an eventuality that was difficult to argue against, even before Schumacher had aced Melbourne with the hybrid F2001c. With the F2002's reliability concerns now put to bed, the prospects for a close season look increasingly remote. As the mild spring weather gives way to the heat and humidity of the North American and European summers, the fortunes of Williams-BMW and the other Michelin runners will be revived. By that stage it may be too late, just as it was for McLaren's Mika Hakkinen in 2000. Schumacher has already eased 14 points clear of the chasing pack, and recent history has proven that you cannot give Michael Schumacher that sort of head start.

The man is simply relentless. In the 40 Grands Prix since Malaysia 1999, Schumacher has recorded 32 podium finishes, two minor points finishes and only six retirements - two of those from first-corner accidents. Coming from an unattached and career-obsessed driver in his early twenties, such a run would have been impressive. Schumacher is approaching middle age, with a wife and young children to consider, and his streak started after recuperating from a potentially career-ending accident. It's a level of sheer single-minded commitment that would have had even Enzo Ferrari shaking his head in disbelief.

Ayrton Senna could demoralise opponents with races of individual brilliance, punctuated with fairly frequent retirements. Schumacher just wears the opposition down remorselessly, taking points at every opportunity. With a seasonal reliability figure of around 90%, Schumacher doesn't need to win every chance he gets. The opposition does, and Ralf Schumacher's facial expression and muted voice in the post-race press conference said it all - Imola was a precious opportunity lost.

With a quarter of the season already gone, Williams are not the only team licking their wounds. Honda and Mercedes, both with a pedigree of recent title wins, have had their pride stung by national rivals Toyota and BMW. That has been perhaps the most surprising revelation as the season's opening stanza has unfolded - that the teams who have progressed most are those who have chosen not to take on a corporate engine partner, namely Ferrari, Renault and Toyota.

In Ferrari's case, early season success was expected. For Toyota and Renault, the results have been a welcome and refreshing development. The conventional thinking dictated that it was simply too great a task for any team, let alone a totally new outfit, to design and manufacture both engine and chassis successfully.

Toyota's success to date, albeit more from rival attrition that outright performance, has demonstrated that Maranello is not the only factory that can put together an entire racing package. It doesn't matter that Toyota are not close to finishing regularly on the podium yet. They may only have scored two Championship points thus far, but that's two more than Honda, who are supplying two better-established teams. In addition, the Honda teams boast one ex-World Champion in Jacques Villeneuve, and another highly-rated challenger in Italian Giancarlo Fisichella.

VIlleneuve's ambition was largely the cause of his own current plight. But in Fisichella's case, the only rational conclusion is that fate has once again dealt him a throwaway hand. For Fisichella, the frustration has been compounded by Jarno Trulli's mediocre form at Renault.

It was hoped that Trulli would realise the potential of the new Renault, if only in qualifying. Yet it is teammate Jenson Button, so outclassed by Fisichella for most of 2001, who has emerged as the more consistent points-scorer for Renault this year. To be fair, Button was completely at sea in the ill-handling 2001 Benetton, and his racing form seems proportionately linked to the quality of the chassis underneath him. Still, there's no doubt that Fisichella would be revelling in a car that can currently match the McLarens.

After McLaren's impressive pre-season testing, David Coulthard had legitimate high hopes of being the leading driver in the field. After Imola, he doesn't even have the consolation of being the leading British driver in the field. It would be easy for Ron Dennis to lay some of the blame at Coulthard's door, or bemoan Mika Hakkinen's sabbatical as a major factor in McLaren's disastrous season. To his credit, the McLaren chief has not passed the buck. He's all too aware that the drivers can only do so much, and that the MP4-17 is simply not good enough to win races.

The 2002 season is now a lost cause for McLaren-Mercedes. Each design has an evolution ceiling, and the team have seemingly reached theirs. During the heydays of the 80s and 90s, there was an easy solution - dump the current engine supplier in favour of the new kid on the block. It was an evolution that saw McLaren switch from TAG to Honda, Ford, Peugeot and finally Mercedes in their quest for glory. That game of 'musical engine suppliers' is no longer an option, and Dennis will have to find the answers from within and not outside the current organisation.

It will be a tough task for McLaren to regain the edge of the late 90s. Ferrari are at the peak of development, and Williams, Renault and Toyota are all at different and promising stages on the upward curve. There are still teams who have the option to court new engine suppliers in their quest for greater competitiveness, but the trend is towards longer-term partnerships and teams becoming wholly owned by the major manufacturers. For the long-established team bosses like Ron Dennis, Sir Frank Williams, Flavio Briatore and Eddie Jordan, this new-found and enforced engine monogamy will represent uncharted waters. For Ferrari, the bespoke engine is merely a continuation of decades of racing tradition.

Likewise, the major manufacturers previously had the luxury of treating F1 as a temporary showcase. They could enter against very limited competition from other major manufacturers, spend their way to the top and then withdraw gracefully, claiming 'mission accomplished' when their particular engine design had outlived its innovative and competitive edge.

With major manufacturers queueing up to announce their long-term commitment to the formula, Ferrari's current domination can surely not withstand the onslaught of corporate dollars and technical innovation from all quarters. Williams-BMW still look best-equipped to topple Ferrari from their lofty throne. If they somehow fail, the smart medium-term money would have to be on either Renault or Toyota.