Juan Pablo Montoya made headlines all year long in his rookie season with the Williams team in 2001, not only scoring his first Grand Prix victory in Italy, but also becoming the only serious contender to World Champion Michael Schumacher on more than one occasion. But what can be expected from the flamboyant Colombian in 2002? Graham Holliday analyses Montoya's chances for the upcoming season

Formula One rookies can be divided into two camps, the relatively inexperienced Buttons and Raikkonens of this world and the Montoyas and the Villeneuves, former heavyweight champions from the stateside CART series.

"I don't think I was the best rookie in Formula One. After 15 years of racing, a CART title, and having won the Indy 500 and the F3000 championship, I can't consider myself a rookie. I'm a very experienced driver," a matter of fact Montoya stated at the end of last year.

He was quite right to point out his 'experienced' status compared to his contemporaries. Although, as he learnt through the running of a whole season, Formula One racing is unlike any other motorsport on the planet. The pressures, both mental and physical, are way beyond anything he went through in the States. From an erratic first half of the season, where reliability was at a premium and his BMW Williams teammate Ralf Schumacher was seen to dominate, to Montoya's late season surge which saw his teammate grasping at straws to gain favourability with an unforgiving team. Of the two Williams drivers it is Montoya who finished 2001 with the lesser number of points, but the greater adulation from all quarters. And it is he who is more likely to have carried that all important momentum through the winter.

A fastest lap at the European Grand Prix and second place, together with a Ralf Schumacher tantrum, saw the turning point of the 2001 season for the Colombian. Pole positions followed at Germany, Belgium and Italy - where he went on to win - and if it wasn't for mechanical difficulties he would have followed this with another victory at the next race in Indianapolis. At the season ending race in Suzuka he was the only driver to even hint at challenging Michael Schumacher who was in a class of his own blazing a trail round the undulating curves of Japan.

While Montoya himself might have rejected the title of 'Rookie of the year', fans and team owners were impressed with his aggressive style which took no prisoners, least of all Schumacher senior. But what can we expect from the 26-year old Monaco resident in 2002?

The way I see it, the clever money is on Montoya running Ralf Schumacher into a hard fought second place in the Williams favourability stakes right from the March 3rd opener in Melbourne. Why? In 2001 he clearly showed his ability to become more and more focused as the season progressed, working closely with the engineers, and arguably most important of all, showing scant respect for his fellow racers. It was telling to see how frustrated Ralf Schumacher became with Montoya throughout the season to the point that he famously ignored team orders to let a quicker Montoya pass at Magny Cours and again at Silverstone. Throwing his toys out of the pram didn't gain Schumacher any friends at Williams and after stern words with the German, Patrick Head told Atlas F1, "I doubt this will happen again." It didn't stop Ralf desperately calling for team orders. The request backfired, as many onlookers agreed with Ralf, except they wanted orders in favour of his rookie teammate.

Montoya for his part seemed nonplussed by the whole affair. Talking to Atlas F1 he said, "I never really had a problem with it. Honestly, I don't care. I mean, hey, the team makes a call and he makes a decision and that's it." If the situation had been reversed it is unlikely that the world would have seen an equally petulant Montoya, "We're pushing each other and it's good for the team," said Montoya at the time.

If, as I believe, Montoya is capable of pushing harder and performing more consistently over the length of the coming season than he did in 2001, it is more likely that Ralf Schumacher's outbursts will start earlier than they did last year. Ralf doesn't have the status or the ability of his brother and that niggles the younger German. While he has matured well after his off track antics during his Jordan days, any driver resorting to the sort of back room tactics he tried during 2001 shows sure signs of desperation.

Qualifying in Melbourne, as always, will be the first indicator of how things will pan out for the season ahead. Montoya managed to outqualify his teammate just six times in 2001. Tellingly these were in the latter stages of the season. If the confident trend he began after Montreal, where he fell off the track for the second race in succession, starts a little earlier this year then there will be no stopping him. The one thing it took Montoya time to learn throughout 2001, as Patrick Head said, was to "take it easy". Not the usual kind of advice one would expect for a racing driver, but Montoya took it to heart, kept the car out of the gravel trap and went on to secure his first race win in Italy.

Early pre-season testing in Barcelona with new test driver signing Antonio Pizzonia at the wheel points towards an unsurprisingly strong showing for Williams this season. Many pundits are already seeing the Williams-BMW as the only real challenger to Ferrari this season. For sure the new car promises much and is likely to be on a par with the McLaren. However, Williams cannot count on the McLarens of David Coulthard and Kimi Raikkonen failing at the starting line again quite so often as they did in 2001. Reliability as ever will be a major factor.

Together with the Coulthard/Raikkonen pairing, who like Williams will also be racing on Michelin rubber in 2002, the Schumacher/Montoya rivalry will be the one to watch. It's well known that they aren't exactly the best of friends. At the beginning of 2001 Ralf Schumacher publicly stated that he would have preferred Jenson Button to remain with the team. But, as Patrick Head reminded him later that year, it isn't the driver who makes the decisions.

Ralf Schumacher is already confirmed as Williams driver through to 2004. Williams hold an option on Montoya for 2003, while still retaining the services of Jenson Button whose time with the newly badged Renault team comes to an end at the close of 2002. It would be a very brave gambler who favoured Button's prospects over Montoya's for the Williams seat in 2003. But if the Colombian fulfills his clear potential it could well be that he ups the ante by ousting Barrichello at Ferrari and going head to head with Schumacher senior for 2003.

He's probably one of the few drivers on the grid who would relish such an opportunity. Such a move would make riveting viewing and might prove decisive in precipitating the release of the stranglehold the elder German has over Formula One. For now though he has Schumacher junior to take care of before any insurgency onto big brother's hallowed ground.