This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: Taking Off the Downforce Mercedes Eyeing the Future

Taking Off the Downforce

With the changes to Hockenheim, the only big low downforce challenge on the Formula One calendar is Monza, where from the team perspective, low drag, high engine power and smooth delivery are traditionally key to a good race.

Of course, it is not that simple. The circuit calls for excellent balance in braking, decent mechanical grip to maximise cornering speed with negligible aerodynamic assistance, and of course, benign behaviour over the vicious kerbs that characterise the track. All of which are influenced massively by the tyres. The construction of the tyre controls how well the kerbs are absorbed: under current regulations, the flex in the tyre wall offers more travel than the suspension itself, and it's the most critical factor. Of course, it's still got to hold its shape at speed (Monza is the fastest on the calendar), or it will come apart, so excessive flex is bad news. The more effectively the kerbs are handled by the tyres, the stiffer the teams can make the suspension, in order to sharpen response to steering input - vital for giving the drivers faith to carry speed in to corners.

At the last test, Michelin tested some promising tyres, which certainly have good speed over a qualifying lap; however, the pace fell off over a race distance, leaving question marks over how competitive they will be alongside the incredibly consistent Bridgestones. As things stand, the Michelin runners believe that the balance of power should be similar to Spa, as long as it doesn't rain.

Not all the Bridgestone runners agree. Sauber are looking for an upturn in fortunes here: they have an effective low drag solution, Ferrari power and a suspension set-up that worked well with the tyres they tested. As they are lacking the extra twenty horsepower some of their rivals boast from qualifying engines, they do not expect Saturday's grid position to be representative of race day's pace, so any driver in the top ten is expected to have a solid shot at scoring points.

Coming out of the test, Sauber's biggest concern is that brakes are going to be marginal for the race. Pushing hard over the full race distance is going to put huge strain on the brake disks: the effect can be helped by increasing the cooling, but only at the cost of increased drag.

Williams are also keeping a weather eye on an almost identical marginal braking situation, though it is not their biggest concern. If the weather stays dry, then the limits of the BMW power plant are going to be tested. They have a cooling issue, leaving them the choice to compromise by increasing the cooling, and consequently drag, or risking the engines expiring. On the other hand, a wet race would immediately solve the heating problem, but puts them onto Michelin's wet weather tyres: these have certainly made a significant step forward since they were last seen in a race, but they still have nothing close to matching Bridgestone's intermediate tyre. Unless there's an absolute deluge, requiring a full-wet race with limited opportunity for Bridgestone to wheel out their intermediate's, rain will make it awkward just to score points, let alone finish on the podium.

Mercedes Eyeing the Future

It's safe to say, Mercedes are not overwhelmed by the results they have seen this year. More to the point, the blame for McLaren's lack of results is being placed fairly firmly at their door, which does little to improve the worldwide image of the company.

When Mercedes climbed in to bed with McLaren in 1994, they had plans to win Championships. Sauber did not seem likely to provide the platform they needed, but the clear power of the unit proved sufficiently attractive to Ron Dennis at McLaren, that he initiated what became a very powerful combination. Through '95 and '96 the Mercedes engine demonstrated ever more impressive power, though reliability was a big problem. By '97, the engine was good enough for McLaren to win races, before the team took advantage of a major chassis rule change to produce a dominant car.

Since then, things have been going downhill. Mika Hakkinen might have won the Driver's Championship in '99, but Ferrari beat McLaren to the Constructor's Championship by four points. The following year, the gap was 18 points, and last year, seventy-seven. This year, Ferrari are out of touch, and Williams are not looking likely to surrender second place overall.

The reason for the decline is being put at Mercedes door, and particularly on the ban of exotic materials in the engines. It oversimplifies the situation - the power gap was closed before the ban came in to effect - but there is no denying the public perception that McLaren put together a decent chassis, and only need a bit more speed to make the car competitive.

Being seen as a weak link is not, of course, the image Mercedes want to be associated with. Accordingly, they are looking at options for the future, with a view to, at least, ensuring that the company image is maintained, and all options are under consideration, including the possibility of selling up the 40% stake in McLaren, and getting out all together. Though that is the last resort: even rebranding to offer Chrysler a platform for competing against Ford on the global scene is preferred to that.

Mercedes are more competitive than that. Provided they can prevent the company image eroding, they are intent on turning this around, to give BMW and Ferrari a run for their money - and the engine rule change for the 2004 season is key.

Research is already under way on developing an engine that will last a full race weekend, without compromising on power. A viable solution - offering considerable improvement to fuel consumption - is set to be discarded on the basis the overall power deficit will cost too many places in qualifying, and leave the car uncompetitive around the pit-stops. It is still being considered for Monaco (2004), where this concept would permit McLaren to run the full race distance without stopping at all, if they have tyres that can handle it, and the fuel tank to run it.

With McLaren planning a revolutionary car for 2003, Mercedes are anticipating reliability issues blighting the season; they have a new engine on its way for the next year, which is supposed to develop the same power as the current BMW engine, so they are not expecting to set the world alight. However, having been together in the buildup to '98, Mercedes believe that McLaren will iron any gremlins out of the 2003 car, then evolve an even better one for 2004. And they are intent of having the best engine on the grid to power it.