Atlas F1 Magazine Writer
The Monaco Grand Prix could see Michael Schumacher achieving yet another record as he fights for his sixth consecutive win of the season. He has won there five times already. Can anyone stop him this weekend? Atlas F1's Tom Keeble previews the sixth round of the 2004 season and rates the teams' chances of ending Ferrari's streak
Analysis
The circus makes its annual pilgrimage to Monaco: the most punishing circuit on the calendar, and by far the most prestigious to win. It is Michael Schumacher's playground, with the German winning there five times in his career - a feat equalled only by Graham "Mr Monaco" Hill, and one short of Ayrton Senna's six. There is no doubt at all that Schumacher is a hot favourite to equal Senna's record by winning again this year.
However, it is by no means certain that Schumacher will win: despite being in a dominant car last season, Juan Pablo Montoya took the race win with Kimi Raikkonen close behind, as the tyres Bridgestone had taken to the race, whilst excellent over the distance, failed to provide the qualifying performance to get the German near the front of the grid.
Which illustrates completely what Monaco is about: here, more than anywhere, qualifying well is vital: accordingly, this is where Michelin's first lap advantage is best set to make a dent in Bridgestone's race day advantage. The relatively low tyre wear could extend that advantage to keep the start of the race interesting too.
Most drivers are expected to opt for a two-stop strategy: after factoring in where the other cars are going to be on the circuit, and their speeds on varying strategies, and the impact of the extra fuel on effective qualifying positions, this is the only obvious approach - unless someone is gambling on rain, in which case, the better their estimate on its arrival, the more closely they will be targeting a fuel load to match, and prepared to sacrifice qualifying positions.
And then again rain could be an interesting player on Saturday: with showers likely on the day, anyone whose run coincides with a shower has little to lose from loading up on fuel. If they are quick enough to stay in front of an early stopping driver on a three-stop strategy, then they will be able to make up positions faster than trying to do so from a straightforward two-stop strategy.
With individual performance at such a premium in Monaco, there are a handful of drivers who are normally worth watching. Obviously, Michael Schumacher is expected to perform well there, as are a number of established names but there are a few other drivers who might stand out. Top of that list, Jenson Button was in fine form last season before an accident in Saturday practice ended his weekend. Similarly, when Felipe Massa made his debut with Sauber, his performance was outstanding for a novice. Cristiano da Matta made a similarly impressive debut last season, at least in qualifying.
When it comes to the race, the drivers on Bridgestone rubber can generally be expected to struggle a little in qualifying, but be in a solid position to make up places during the pitstops, provided they are a few laps out of sync with the drivers immediately in front of them. Accordingly, whilst an early first stop on lighter fuel is ideal for the Michelin runners, to make the most of Bridgestone's race time advantage, getting out of step is important: so a very short or long first stint is called for, in order to try and find clear track to make up time.
It is rare to see any on track passing, but between drivers making mistakes - inevitably, a few drivers will hit the barriers - this race is all about qualifying, race day strategy, and individual driver performances.
A Lap of Monte Carlo with David Coulthard
A lap of the Monaco Grand Prix circuit starts on the pit straight, which has a gentle curve to the right along its entire length. You reach 170mph/273kph in sixth gear before braking hard as the track inclines for the infamous tight, bumpy, right of Sainte Devoite, which is a virtual 90-degree corner taken at 50mph/80kph in second gear and is usually the scene of first corner incidents. Accelerating up the Beau Rivage climb, your speed reaches 170mph/273kph in sixth gear as you approach the long left of Massanet, which is negotiated at 85mph/136kph in third. Keeping close to the inside curb through Massanet, you dab the brakes slightly for the bumpy right of Casino Square, which is taken at 80mph/128kph, still in third. A burst of acceleration follows, reaching some 130mph/209kph in fourth gear on the downhill approach to the bumpy right-hander of Mirabeau. Keeping tight to the right as you reach the hairpin, you shift down through the gears to take Mirabeau at 50mph/80kph in second gear. This is a possible overtaking opportunity.
A short spurt of gas takes you to the Grand Hotel Hairpin, the tightest, slowest corner on the circuit, which requires full lock to negotiate it and sees the track continue to plunge downhill and your speed drop to below 30mph/48kph in first gear. Two sharp right handers follow both in second gear, with a maximum speed of 55mph/88kph, the second of which leads you to the entrance to the Tunnel. You have to be careful here as the armco on the exit is not straight. Pushing hard on the throttle, you sweep through the covered right-hand curve, which is the only flat out section of the track. You reach the maximum speed on the circuit, 175mph/281kph in seventh, as you burst back out into daylight by the sea wall.
Braking hard for the left-right Nouvelle chicane, your speed drops to 30mph/48kph, before accelerating out along the run to Tabac. This fast left-hander is taken at 89mph/143kph in third. Entering the swimming pool complex, your speed increases to just over 130mph/209kph in fourth gear for the first section of the left-right kink, before braking to negotiate the slower, revised section, which now sees a tighter entrance, at 70mph/112kph. Another short period of acceleration follows as you continue along the harbour front, which sees you reach 120mph/193kph in third on the approach to the Rascasse. This sharp, right-hand hairpin, which poses a difficult braking manoeuvre as you swing round 180-degrees is taken at 30mph/48kph in first gear.
A short uphill straight leads to the final corner, which is taken in second at 45mph/72kph, before accelerating up the hill along the pit straight to start another lap.
Team by Team
Ferrari
After an almost impeccable opening to the season, Ferrari are clear favourites to win again in Monaco. Considering their performances to date, there is little evidence to contradict the expectation of another Schumacher win.
The team have a weather eye on the competition: Williams and BAR are most likely to interrupt the winning streak, though Renault have a good record at this circuit, and even McLaren can't be ruled out, as their drivers may be able to make something of the package there.
Nevertheless, Ferrari have the best package, and the acknowledged current master of Monaco driving for them. The most interesting question has to be, where will Rubens Barrichello finish? In the past couple of seasons, the Brazilian has finished well behind his teammate, and with their focus still on Schumacher, there is every danger that he will, again, be struggling to work his way through the pack as he struggles from a poor qualifying session.
Williams
Although Williams have passed the mantle of 'most likely to challenge Ferrari' to BAR, they cannot be written off, particularly here. Despite only winning in Monaco three times, they have frequently been in a commanding lead before engine failure, or a puncture, or other misfortune has deprived them of a win.
Not so last year: Juan Pablo Montoya's win sparked the big turn around for the team, and gave their season a well needed boost. Whilst this year's Ferrari has a bigger advantage, and Button in a BAR is threatening to leave them behind, the team have tremendous experience of setting the car up for Monaco, and both their drivers go very well there: Ralf Schumacher's scintillating pole and Montoya's win in 2003 were not by fluke.
Unfortunately, winning this year is looking very difficult, unless Michelin have come up with something very special, and Button drops the ball. Indeed, Williams have to be concerned about fending off Renault and perhaps McLaren, who can be expected to go well here, ahead of their attempts to close on Ferrari. After all, these teams are on the same tyres, so the parallels being drawn are more clearly a measure of the cars relative merits, rather than something that can be put down to the tyre war.
McLaren
Despite having a miserable season to date, McLaren have some hope for salvaging their price in Monaco. The circuit is notorious for permitting drivers to overcome shortcomings in their cars, particularly when they are short on power. Considering David Coulthard has won there, and Kimi Raikkonen finished second last year, both drivers have demonstrated they have the talent to perform well.
Whilst there has been very little said about what is wrong with the car by McLaren, general opinion holds their biggest problem is that the Mercedes engine is simply underperforming - leaving the team particularly exposed on power circuits, and struggling at the others.
If this is the case, then Monaco offers the team their best opportunity for a mini-revival, and they could move up the grid a handful of places - and though they are not expected to challenge Ferrari, there could be opportunity to take good points away from Williams, Renault and BAR.
Renault
So far this season, despite scoring points with both cars at every race, Renault's performance has generally been eclipsed by Williams or BAR, so they are widely considered to have only an outside chance of getting on terms with Ferrari at any circuit. However, Monaco is something of a special case.
Their car has excellent aerodynamics, and possibly the best brakes - more importantly, it inspires confidence in the drivers, which is vital at a circuit where an inch makes the difference between a perfect lap, and broken suspension. Accordingly, Fernando Alonso and particularly Jarno Trulli are looking forward to the potential the place offers.
Renault have an enhanced aerodynamic package to maximise downforce, and are confident that the car is going to perform well. Their engine optimisation should offer the drivers a smoother power curve at slow speed, which continues to lend confidence to the drivers. Whether all this is enough to take the fight to Ferrari is in doubt, but BAR and Williams are clearly lined up in Renault's sights: taking points away from these teams also strengthens their hold on second in the Championship. Furthermore, Renault are all too aware that if Bridgestone have got it wrong, then Ferrari are more vulnerable here than anywhere else, and they are aiming to be in a position to capitalise.
BAR
After the results of the last few races, popular opinion holds that BAR have inherited the mantle of 'best of the rest' from Williams, and they are widely seen as the best chance to beat Ferrari at this race.
Last season, Button was in electric form before having a high speed accident coming out of the tunnel in Saturday practice: it took him out of the race, but has demonstrated that he can really leverage the best performance from the car. Whilst Takuma Sato has been overdriving, his performance in Spain showed that he is capable of reigning himself in. However, his only appearance at Monaco, with Jordan in 2002, was nothing to write home about, particularly as he spun out on lap 22.
Honda is right behind the team, and has another minor evolution of their engine available for the race. Increased torque is a key requirement for this circuit, given the frequent acceleration out of slow corners. Similarly, an evolution to the aerodynamics should help keep the pressure on their rivals.
Considering the shape BAR are in, Button is optimistic about taking pole, and they do offer a genuine chance to beat Ferrari - but only if Bridgestone have their strategy wrong, or at least a couple of other cars can qualify ahead of the Ferraris: otherwise, expect to see the scarlet cars passing during the pitstops, as they have for the last couple of races.
Sauber
Monaco should be interesting for Sauber: both their drivers can go very well there - Massa's debut in 2002 was impressive, before a brake failure pitched him head on into the barriers, whilst Giancarlo Fisichella has finished on the podium. Race strategy is going to be vital, as their Bridgestone tyres will offer a disadvantage compared to the initial lap their Michelin rivals will be qualifying with, but they are expecting to have good race pace.
The team don't have a lot to bring for the car, barring some aerodynamic enhancements and suspension changes to minimise the impact of the high ride height, and the tight hairpin, but they have hopes of being in a position to take the fight to McLaren again.
Jaguar
If things go to plan, a Jaguar in the hands of Mark Webber should at least make qualifying interesting, as they ought to be able to turn in a respectable single lap performance. However, the team are still struggling to get as much from their tyres as their rival Michelin runners, so they are expected to fall off the pace as the race gets older.
Whilst this is bad news for Jaguar, it is worse for those who qualify behind them, as they are going to find that despite being able to pass during the pitstops, the cars in front of the Jaguars are likely to have opened up sufficient space to remain ahead.
Recent work to improve the wear problem and bring on downforce for the race should help to improve the situation, but there is a long way to go before they can close the gap to the front runners.
Toyota
Last year, Toyota surprised most of their competition when Cristiano da Matta qualified tenth - it was an impressive performance, even on a fairly light fuel load. Unfortunately, his race pace revealed the grip problems the team were struggling to master, and he finished ninth.
This year's car is an improvement, but its notorious bump handling and general lack of downforce make it unlikely that they will touch the front four teams this time either: racing Sauber, Jaguar and perhaps McLaren for the last point is the best they can hope for unless the leading teams make a lot of mistakes.
On the positive side, both of their drivers can go very well here, and is capable of putting in a surprising lap: it is possible either could qualify well on a light tank, and at least mix it for the opening laps.
Jordan
The Jordan has some potential, but a lack of downforce at the start of the season, followed up with limited development has not helped much. On the positive side, they are getting more from their tyres than they were at the start of the season, and it should improve their opportunities in the race.
Nick Heidfeld has some good experience at Monaco, which will help the team get the car set up, but there is little doubt that they are going to struggle to get near the points unless the drivers in front make mistakes. Inevitably, Jordan are looking for rain, so they can leverage a Bridgestone advantage, whilst hoping for mayhem amid the competition.
Minardi
The deficiencies of the ancient Cosworth engine should present the team with fewer problems here. Unfortunately, at this circuit, which is renowned for being difficult to learn, let alone master, the inexperience of their drivers is going to be a problem.
If they can keep the car out of the barriers long enough to put together plenty of laps, then there is some chance of getting together a decent race for qualifying and the race. However, unless it rains, and most of the drivers take themselves out of the running, then the best the team can hope for is that their drivers get smartly out of the way as they are lapped.
Flashback 2003
Ferrari had brought themselves back into the Championship race in no uncertain terms by Monaco last season, after introducing the F2003-GA and walking away with the Spanish and Austrian Grands Prix. Raikkonen's lead in the Championship was looking vulnerable, and Williams seemed to have lost the plot - politics with BMW over extending the contract were not helping.
Qualifying
Without doubt the best qualifying of Ralf Schumacher's life put him on pole position for the Monaco Grand Prix. Michelin were the tyre of the day, and Ralf made the absolute most of them, putting together a lap that even he struggled to believe had really taken place.
Raikkonen's second place could have been pole, had he not clipped a curb at the Swimming Pool, but the Finn was clearly delighted after being off the pace - compared to Coulthard - all weekend. It put him ahead of a flying Montoya, who claimed third after being well off the pace all weekend, and despite complaints that the car was bottoming out!
Jarno Trulli maintained his reputation as a demon at Monaco, putting in a lap the convincingly took fourth place, whilst Michael Schumacher had his worst Monaco qualifying ever, with fifth spot. Coulthard, Barrichello and Alonso came close behind, confirming the dominance of the top four teams.
Notables from the session include Cristiano de Matta, whose tenth place at his first visit was all the more impressive for convincingly beating previous Monaco winner Olivier Panis, and Giancarlo Fisichella's twelfth spot as next best Bridgestone runner, illustrating how much off the pace the tyre was in qualifying. Jenson Button failed to qualify after a huge accident in practice.
Race Highlights
The race started cleanly with Montoya and Alonso getting excellent starts, so the order after the first corner was Ralf Schumacher, Montoya, Raikkonen, Trulli, Michael Schumacher, Alonso, Coulthard and Barrichello. However, the drama soon started, as Frentzen hit the curb at the swimming pool, and he was launched into the barriers, eventually ending up in the middle of the track and bringing out a safety car.
After restarting on lap 5, the race adopted the usual Monaco procession format, with the leading trio pushing hard at the front, ahead of a slower Trulli, who was clearly holding up Schumacher.
By the time of the first pitstops, Montoya was pressuring Ralf Schumacher at the front, whilst Trulli had held Michael Schumacher up, ten seconds back from the leaders. Whilst Ralf stopped, Montoya put in his fastest time so far, before pitting, only to emerge directly in front of his teammate. Raikkonen stayed out longer, but encountered back-markers, which guaranteed he could do nothing to get ahead of the Montoya; however, Ralf had dropped a long way off the pace on his replacement tyres, so Raikkonen came out ahead of him.
When Trulli pitted, Schumacher made the most of the clear air to put in three spectacular laps, before making his own stop and coming back to the circuit cleanly ahead of the Renault, but fourteen seconds behind the leaders.
The second round of stops was again led by the Williams duo, with Raikkonen flying in an attempt get around Montoya, but failing by a whisker to make the pass from his stop. Further back, Trulli and Coulthard were scrapping hard, including a pitstop that saw the cars virtual occupy the same space, but the Scot couldn't force his McLaren past the Renault.
When the stops had unwound, Michael Schumacher had passed his brother, and was able to close on Raikkonen and Montoya at the rate of nearly a second per lap - though perhaps flattering the performance of the car, as the Colombian was looking after his engine, thanks to some warning lights that came on during his stop, and slowing Raikkonen behind him.
Points paying positions:
1. Montoya Williams-BMW Michelin 2
Classified: 13 from 19 starters
Fastest lap: Raikkonen, 1:14.545
Monte Carlo hosts the Monaco Grand Prix through the streets of the principality. A good lap here requires excellent aerodynamics and handling, though the driver is expected to make a real difference, as bravery and accuracy are vital to a successful weekend. Traditionally, this is the only place where an underpowered engine is not a serious penalty. The weekend is expected to see showers, particularly on Saturday.
2. Raikkonen McLaren-Mercedes Michelin 2
3. M.Schumacher Ferrari Bridgestone 2
4. R.Schumacher Williams-BMW Michelin 2
5. Alonso Renault Michelin 2
6. Trulli Renault Michelin 2
7. Coulthard McLaren-Mercedes Michelin 2
8. Barrichello Ferrari Bridgestone 2
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