Atlas F1 Magazine Writer
Following their dominant performance in Australia, the big question coming to the Malaysian Grand Prix is whether Ferrari are clearly ahead of their rivals, or if it was just the circumstances that benefitted the World Champions. Atlas F1's Tom Keeble previews the second race of the season and analyses the teams' chances of success
Analysis
Malaysia is a hugely technical circuit, putting tremendous demand on the drivers and their cars. There is a reasonable expectation for thunder-storms during the race, so the teams will have to consider compromising their race set-up in order to react to the rain, should it arrive. This would involve softening springs, running fuller tanks to improve flexibility, and some compromise to the aerodynamics.
On the other hand, if it remains dry, then the question will be, how does the revised pitlane speed limit affect the race? Last year, the only way to go was a two-stop strategy; however, this season, shaving a few seconds off that trip though the pits makes three stops a more attractive option. This could work to the benefit of the teams whose tyres are graining worst, as the penalty for making even four pitstops is not entirely untenable.
The majority of the leading teams can be expected to make three stops if they believe the race will be dry – or the rain will come very early – otherwise the compromise option really demands a two stop approach, along with careful consideration of how the tyres are used.
Clearly, Bridgestone have improved their game this year, putting the onus on the Michelin to deliver something that can put their teams back into contention against Ferrari. It is quite a concern, if the Italian outfit remains so dominant, that Bridgestone can start focussing on the needs of Sauber, pushing them up the field to score regular points too.
So, the big question that needs to be answered is: can the Michelin runners do anything about Ferrari's fantastic start, or is the season going to follow the same pattern as 2002? There is some chance. Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso have both exceeded expectations here in the past, and have better cars this year. Kimi Raikkonen won impressively last season, and it was the scene of a solid Williams 1-2 in 2002 after Ralf Schumacher conclusively beat Juan Pablo Montoya in the season opener. Then again, that famous Williams victory proved to be the calm before the Ferrari storm...
A Lap of Sepang with Alex Wurz
Crossing the start line at the Sepang circuit, you reach a speed of 190mph/303kph in seventh gear on the long pit straight before braking dramatically for the tight complex, which incorporates a downhill gradient. The right-hander is taken at 53mph/85kph in second, with your speed dropping slightly for the left turn that follows immediately. As the track is fairly wide at this point of the track there are often good opportunities for overtaking under braking. Accelerating out, the track leads to the long right-hander of turn three that sweeps you round onto a short straight.
Pushing hard on the throttle, you reach some 180mph/290kmh in sixth gear before braking sharply, dropping down to 64mph/103kph in second for the tight right-hander of turn four. On the exit, you quickly flick up through the gears as you approach the flowing left of turn five, which is negotiated at 160mph/225kph in fourth gear. The tighter right of turn six follows and requires a slight touch on the brakes, bringing your speed down to 109mph/175kph still in fourth.
Another quick sprint along a short straight comes next, at speeds of 152mph/244kph, on the approach to the two right-handers of turns seven and eight. Turn seven is taken at 120mph/193kph, the slightly more open turn of eight sees your speed increase by 10kph. As you exit the corner, you continue to push hard on the throttle along the straight that leads to the very tight turn nine. Braking hard as you enter the complex at the back of the circuit, the left-hander, is negotiated in second gear at 50mph/80kph. On the throttle as you exit, you build and maintain your speed through the long, right-hander of turn ten, reaching some 131mph/210kph in fourth gear.
Turn eleven, a 90-degree right-hander is taken at 77mph/124kph. Another short burst of power takes you to turn twelve. Keeping your speed through the corner, you then dab the brakes, dropping to 110mph/176kph in third for the slower right hand of turn thirteen. Flicking down a gear, the sharp right of turn fourteen swings you round almost 180-degrees at some 71mph/114kph onto the straight that runs parallel to the start-finish straight, separated by the massive grandstand. Powering along the straight and 181mph/290kph in seventh, you then braking sharply to negotiate the hairpin of turn fifteen, at 66mph/106kph in second, which flips you back onto the start-finish straight to begin another lap.
Team by Team
Ferrari
The dominance Ferrari showed in Australia has stunned the remainder of the paddock. Few teams were prepared to recognise that this car could have moved forward so significantly, when the pace was already so high. It turns out that the secretive testing was not because the car was off the pace - it was to ensure the maximum surprise when it arrived at the season opener.
For Malaysia, there has been talk of a Bridgestone tyre that has Michelin-like hot weather properties. Even if that is true, this is probably going to be Ferrari's toughest race: a number of the Michelin runners are known for having good races here, the weather could throw a stormy spanner in the works, or the heat could require the engine to be significantly detuned to ensure a finish.
Nevertheless, their complete command of the opening event leaves Ferrari hot favourite for a repeat performance.
Williams
Despite the result in Melbourne, Williams still believe they are the team best positioned to challenge Ferrari - but they recognise that there is going to be a real struggle to wrest the crown from the World Champions this season, without a considerable improvement to the package in ambient temperatures.
Of course, with Ferrari and Bridgestone telling the world that they have come up with a solution to Michelin's hot weather advantage, there is serious concern that by the time Williams are in a position to challenge the Italian marque, they will have too large a mountain of points stacked against them to do anything about it.
However, Williams still believe that the heat of Malaysia should bring them back into contention for the race, but certainly they expect to come away with two cars in the top four, if the race is event free, and Renault's fast starters don't make up too many places on the grid. Naturally, the last thing they want in this race is rain!
McLaren
By McLaren's standards, Australia was an unmitigated disaster. Having spent the weekend trying to unlock a decent performance, then losing an engine in the race - after being passed by a Sauber, of all things - they are facing the fact that there is a lot of work to be done before mounting a realistic challenge for race wins.
Frankly, the team see little chance of resolving their problems before getting back to Europe. Whilst the car is considerably better than last year, it is simply not performing as well as some of the competition: without an inventive strategy and bundles of luck, they are even expecting to struggle with containing Renault and BAR.
On the positive side, since the last race, McLaren have identified some new set-up options that eek greater speed from the chassis. There is a price: tyre wear is increased considerably, so attempting to leverage this approach would force the team on to three stops, and still offer little saving in terms of overall race time.
Renault
Collecting a podium in Australia has fully justified Renault's program in preparation for this season, and they are clearly set to make the likes of Williams and McLaren work to surpass them.
On of the more interesting points is, last season, Renault were able to set their car up to work on the softer option Michelin at almost every race: clearly, this produced a benefit, as their performance was impressive even without a leading engine. It worked so well that this season, their car is again designed with tyre wear a significant consideration, and they will go into each race expecting to run with the option tyre.
Sepang is likely to suit this Renault too - the circuit rewards a car for each area of strength, so having great balance, mechanical and aerodynamic grip, backed by a solid engine, and fit drivers, whilst perhaps not the strongest in any of those areas, will offer the team a competitive package. Of course, Williams are expected to fight back, McLaren often produce surprises here; but Renault know both teams are vulnerable, and they are set to take points and podiums away from anyone who drops the ball.
BAR
Australia showed the paddock at large that BAR's winter testing performance was not only for real, but they could translate it to the track when it mattered. The team had their cars set up and at a respectable pace practically from the outset, and looked good for most of the weekend. At their best, they are pushing Williams and Renault, and certainly had the measure of McLaren. However, the car is eating through the tyres somewhat quicker than expected: not good for a high wear circuit like Sepang.
Nevertheless, to say that BAR are looking forward to Malaysia would be an understatement: Jenson Button normally goes well there, and this year they have a car that could well scrap for points at every event. Indeed, if Michelin has an advantage, they can see the Englishman coming away with his first podium. Considering that Takuma Sato is no slouch either, there's a buzz going around the BAR team that has never really been there before.
Sauber
Sauber's Australian performance was fairly interesting. In principle, given Bridgestone's performance at the circuit, they should have been seeing a positive weekend, but in practice, Giancarlo Fisichella's poor qualifying left him struggling to pass Heidfeld's Jordan: not the best of signs.
On the other hand, Felipe Massa managed to pass Kimi Raikkonen's McLaren before it expired: whilst the Mercedes engine might already have been giving up power, it is a good sign that at any circuit where Bridgestone works well, Sauber are going to be looking for points. Heading to Malaysia, despite heat that favours Michelin runners, Sauber had normally performed above expectations, and clearly hope to capitalise on that experience to score again. Rain would only help those chances.
Jaguar
Despite scoring no points in Melbourne, Jaguar came away with a generally positive feeling about the weekend. They are convinced that if Mark Webber's gearbox had held out, then they could have held on to the Williams. Certainly, whilst the car is not exactly soft on tyres, the wear rate is markedly better than last year, and prospects are looking up.
For Malaysia, Jaguar are looking for Webber to scalp BAR: they believe their outright pace is good enough, and with a solid qualifying it could work out. For their second car, they expect Christian Klien to string together a consistent performance for the whole race, but want him to bring the car home in one piece rather than take risks. Track time is vital to his development, and his grace period is not quite over yet.
Toyota
Toyota were frankly dismayed by their Australian demonstration, and are working hard to resolve the basic lack of downforce that seems to be their shortcoming. On the positive side, the car was relatively well balanced, and has been looking after the Michelin tyres better than some of their rivals.
Despite expecting to be short of downforce again in Sepang, the long straights should allow them to flex their engine power, so there is some hope of a better turn out: nevertheless, unless the competition drop the ball, then kick it out of the park, there is only limited hope of points.
Jordan
Australia proved unremarkable for Jordan, even though Nick Heidfeld was able to race in front of Giancarlo Fisichella for much of the day, before retiring with a mechanical problem; however, their performance never threatened to bring home any points.
For Malaysia, where Michelin are expected to be stronger, Jordan are looking to get on terms with Sauber, but otherwise have few ambitions, besides remaining in the running: needless to say, they are hoping it rains.
Minardi
Having failed to get either car to the finish in Australia, despite designing for longevity over performance, Minardi utterly failed to achieve any of their goals. For Malaysia, they are still expecting to be hopelessly off the pace, but this time need to find the finishing line.
Flashback 2003
Following the Australian Grand Prix, there was a very positive attitude as the circus headed to Malaysia – not least because the jury was still out on whether the rule changes worked, as that rain affected race had been well received.
Qualifying
Renault approach was to attack the race, fully intent of leading from the start to finish: so by running relatively low fuel combined with the softer Michelin tyre, they stormed to the front in qualifying.
Michael Schumacher's lap was not to be sniffed at, as he struggled to defend a 100% pole position record at the circuit. Despite an arguable Michelin advantage, the World Champion led the second row, confident that the Ferrari strategy was right, but concerned Renault had seen something that the Italian marque had missed. Coulthard lined up alongside, his confidence clearly on a high after his Australian win.
Whilst Barrichello lined up behind his team leader, Heidfeld was running light and got into the third row, mixing up the field.
Williams struggled with balance throughout the weekend, Montoya putting in a mediocre lap for eighth, just behind Raikkonen, who has locked up into the hairpin. Ralf's lap, meanwhile, was just plain disappointing, leaving him 17th as he struggled to get to grips with the qualifying system.
Race Highlights
The race looked like it should start cleanly, as the pack makes it through the first corner, before Michael Schumacher ran wide in the second, knocking Trulli off the circuit. As the same time, Pizzonia ran into the back of Montoya, removing his rear wing and Verstappen hit Pizzonia: whilst all three are eventually repaired, their races are effectively over.
Meanwhile, Alonso is racing away from Coulthard, Heidfeld, Raikkonen, Button and Barrichello, with Ralf Schumacher in ninth, and Michael in thirteenth. Raikkonen soon passes Heidfeld, whilst Coulthard drops out with electrical problems: Schumacher pits for a new front wing.
On lap 5, Barrichello and Panis both passed Button, whilst Trulli has worked his way through the field to ninth, recovering from the Schumacher's punt, for which the World Champion did not go unpunished; on lap nine he served a drive-through penalty.
By the tenth lap, Raikkonen had brought the gap to Alonso down under five seconds, whilst Barrichello ends his two lap battle with Heidfeld for third by passing the German.
Panis pits from fifth on lap twelve, but the car stops shortly after. The other light-loaded cars start to stop shortly after, dropping Alonso to fourth, Trulli to ninth then Button to fifth. Raikkonen takes advantage of inheriting the lead by stretching Barrichello, before stopping on lap nineteen; Trulli attempts to pass Firman for seventh, but goes wide.
The second round of stops take place from lap thirty three, as Raikkonen stretches his lead over Barrichello to twenty seconds. Webber retires with a mechanical problem, as Trulli's stop goes wrong, costing time in the pits. Michael Schumacher passed Button and Trulli for fifth, but lost the positions again when he pitted. Ralf Schumacher sits in fourth, having seen little action.
In the closing laps, Pizzonia demonstrates his inexperience, spinning into retirement, and Trulli spins whilst attempting to pressure Button into a mistake, leaving him right in front of Michael Schumacher. On the final lap, they both pass Button, whose tyres had deteriorated badly: Raikkonen wins convincingly over Barrichello, whilst Alonso scores his first podium.
Points paying positions:
1. Raikkonen (Michelin) 2 stops
The Malaysian Grand Prix is hosted at Sepang – a relatively new, purpose built enclave that has been on the calendar since it was completed in 1999. The weekend is normally punctuated by thunder storms. Traditionally, the circuit is tough on tyres, and this year will require a near-maximum downforce set-up.
2. Barrichello (Bridgestone) 2 stops
3. Alonso (Michelin) 2 stops
4. R.Schumacher (Michelin) 2 stops
5. Trulli (Michelin) 2 stops
6. M.Schumacher (Bridgestone) 4 stops
7. Button (Bridgestone) 2 stops
8. Heidfeld (Bridgestone) 2 stops
Classified: 13 from 20 starters
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