Atlas F1 Magazine: The 2004 Italian GP Preview

After the injection of life that was Spa, the circus moves on to the Autodromo di Monza, which hosts the Italian Grand Prix. Despite being slowed down over the years, the circuit retains the essential character of speed, with long, fast straights rewarding outright power and efficient braking. A good lap here requires a powerful engine to deliver on the straights accompanied by low drag to maximise acceleration, good mechanical balance to counter the lack of downforce and effective brake cooling to enable them to stop the car from high speeds at the end of each straight for the whole race. Tyres are a factor, with the high speeds generating a lot of heat, but relatively low abrasion from the circuit. The weather prediction shows there are strong odds on a wet race, but probably dry for the remainder of the weekend.

The Autodromo di Monza has a significant history in Formula One, and can be considered the spiritual home of Italian Motor racing. Despite the chicanes that have marred the long straights for the last decade, it is a significant monument to speed, rewarding powerful engine and precise driving. Although overtaking is not impossible, the circuit does not make it easy; consequently, qualifying is important, so most teams can be expected to look for a two-stop approach, probably with a short first stint. The fastest absolute pace would be from a single stop, if traffic was not a consideration, whilst three stops is a valid option if the driver is convinced they can make passes.

All the teams tested in Monza last week. This tends to promote a good understanding of the circuit, the tyres to choose and the probable race day characteristics, which in turn tends to result in processional racing. However, the Michelin runners were distracted by the need to identify the cause of the punctures that ruined so many races in Belgium: failure to find a specific cause has resulted in myriad test miles lost from the evaluation of new tyres and components. This may lead to a Bridgestone advantage.

The tyres themselves have to be carefully chosen. The circuit has relatively high grip, which keeps wear rates down, implying a soft compound would be beneficial, except that the long straights lead to high tyre temperatures, which is mitigated by using harder rubber. Of course, if the weather forecast is accurate, this could be the first wet race of the season � in which case, Bridgestone currently has a clear advantage.

Cars will be set up to minimise drag, though some downforce is required to stop the car from sliding through the fast Curve Grande: insufficient grip here leads to accelerated wear, whilst too much would compromise straight line speed. In attempting to cut drag, minimising cooling vents for brakes and engine can lead to blown engines � they are at full throttle for 70-75% of the lap � and long brake pedals before the end of the race.

Although performances in Canada are typically a good indicator for Monza, the fact is that Renault failed to get either car to the finish whilst McLaren are racing a completely reformed vehicle. Add Williams and BAR's progress to that mix, and it is clear to see that things have changed noticeable in the Michelin camp. Bridgestone, on the other hand, have had an eye on improving Sauber's performance, so the privateer outfit could fight for points � or perhaps a podium if the circuit is wet enough.

Having said which, in front of their home crowd and with both Championships sown up, Ferrari clearly remain favourite.

"Monza is the fastest race track on the Formula One calendar, and that makes it a very fun circuit to drive. I've driven round the track in a couple of other formulae, but it's especially enjoyable in an F1 car. You can feel the speed because it's one of the few remaining circuits with really long straights. Heading down the start-finish straight, you reach one of the highest speeds on the F1 calendar - in the race the cars are travelling at over 360kmh. But the first chicane is first gear and very slow, so the braking is very heavy. The braking point is important and you've really got to concentrate hard to hit it perfectly.

"When you're arriving at such high speed it's easy to brake either slightly too late or slightly too early. That makes for good racing, and in the race it's a very good place for passing. The chicane is very tight but the kerbs are quite flat and you can ride both of them. You exit the corner in first gear and you need good traction because you accelerate up to seventh round the Curva Biassono, taken flat, into the second chicane, the Variante della Roggia. It's quite a bit faster than the first chicane and taken in second gear. The kerbs are much higher and you bounce off them a lot more, so a lot more car control is needed through there. I've seen lots of passing there as well, so it's another possible overtaking spot - even if it's a bit more difficult than the first chicane. From there we reach fourth gear on the way up to the first of the two Lesmo corners.

"It's taken in third gear at over 180kmh. It's quite a long corner, and you need to keep up your speed all the way through. On the exit you need to get on the power early, and you make it up to fourth again before dropping back to third for the second Lesmo. That is taken at similar speed but it's tighter, almost right-angled. It has a short apex and you just clip the apex and let it drift. After that you head down the back straight, all the way back up to seventh gear. You go round a left hand kink then down the hill under the old oval circuit before coming up again into braking for the Ascari chicane. Ascari is a great corner - it's fast, taken in third gear and one of my favourite parts of the circuit.

"You use a bit of the inside kerb on the entry, then you're on full throttle through the right-hand kink and then the left back onto the back straight. We make it into seventh gear again for quite some time on the run-up to the last corner, Parabolica. It's not as long as the start-finish straight but depending on the wind, we get up to the same kind of speed as the first chicane. We generally run quite low downforce at Monza, so the main difficulty is that the car's grip is lower and under braking you get a bit more movement than at other circuits.

"Parabolica itself is very fast with a very long exit. So you brake but you keep the speed coming into the corner - which can be taken in third or fourth depending on the gear ratios. You don't drop much below 200kmh all the way around and it's hard on the neck because of the lateral G-Force. On exit you get early on the power and you let the car drift as much as possible, coming out of the corner on the very outside as you prepare to start another lap."

Despite Schumacher's winning streak being broken in Spa, the team are widely considered to be hot favourites, particularly as they are looking to deliver a win for their home crowd. However, Ferrari have demonstrated some weakness at the lower downforce circuits this year.

In Canada, the other truly low downforce circuit, Schumacher won from sixth on the grid through excellent strategy rather than outright speed; the last race at Spa also saw downforce levels reduced, and Kimi Raikkonen in a McLaren clearly won on merit. Whilst the Canada performance could be argued as due to Michelin having a relatively strong weekend, the Belgium result looks like a genuine indication that the performance gap is closing, even if the safety car did have some impact. Consequently, if Ferrari are not right on their game this weekend, they should not be expected to win.

Of course, if it rains in the race, then the Italian outfit clearly expect to make the most of their Bridgestone wet weather tyre advantage to dominate.

Although BMW like to claim they have the most powerful engine on the grid, there are only a couple of circuits that rewards an emphasis on horsepower at all costs � and Monza is one of them. Despite being off the pace for most of the season, recent developments have brought some solid rewards.

Ralf Schumacher continues to be out, so for this race Antonio Pizzonia will be standing in again. Unlike his previous outings, the Brazilian has just had a chance to test extensively here, so he faces a smaller disadvantage to Juan Pablo Montoya. If he can stay on top of his game, he should be able to match the performance of his more experienced teammate in qualifying, though his race-craft remains in question.

Considering their recent performances, it would be easy to overlook Williams as contenders for this race, but the team were clearly much improved in Spa. If they have ironed out their reliability gremlins, then they should run strongly in Monza � and are probably looking at a podium finish.

Despite winning the Belgian Grand Prix, McLaren are not heading to Monza as favourites, even to head the Michelin runners. Whilst Spa demands a good engine to power up the hill after Eau Rouge, there is room for compromise with the aerodynamics and the driver can make up for minor handling deficiencies to boot. Heading to Monza, any power shortcomings will be exposed, and whilst an excellent chassis is a bonus over the kerbs, outright horses will count.

McLaren have improved enormously with the introduction of their revised car, which includes a new Mercedes unit that is considerably improved on the plant that started the season; however, the team are giving away power to BMW, Honda and Ferrari, whilst Renault seem to have better acceleration from their less powerful engine, with at least as strong a chassis. Clearly, besting these teams is not going to be a cakewalk.

Nevertheless, as they so ably demonstrated in Spa, write McLaren off at your peril. Their package favours higher speed technical circuits, so it ought to be decently competitive. Monza might not favour the team, but they have momentum, and will be ready to pick up the ball if anyone drops it.

Following a disappointing result in Spa, Renault are looking for a recovery of fortunes in Monza. Their aerodynamic package is the class of the current field, with an exceptional low drag package that offers the team more downforce for their drag penalty than any other team on the grid, a high torque engine that works well under acceleration, and excellent braking. Whilst absolute power is considered lacking, the overall package is strong: this team hope to do well in Italy.

However, things are not cut and dried. Besides Ferrari, BAR are showing improved low-downforce pace, whilst Williams and McLaren have both upped their games. In looking for a win, the team will be risking retirements from stressing the package to its limits; defending their second place in the Championship requires the consistent scoring of points � preferably outscoring BAR, in particular. It is going to be an interesting weekend for Renault.

Following a disappointing result in Spa, where tyre failure and accidents terminated their drivers' races, BAR have something to prove in Monza. And they might manage to do so, too. Their Honda engine is well regarded in the paddock, whilst the low downforce package is clearly not too shabby either.

Progress in recent tests have given the team reason to believe they are on top of their game: fighting at the front is on the cards in Italy if they have the right tyre from Michelin. The balance between a quick qualifying lap for track advantage and outright race pace is delicate, requiring second guessing of the other Michelin-shod competition.

If the team keep their act together, they should score well in Italy, with solid expectations of a podium. And should Bridgestone be off their game, that elusive first win is a possibility.

Heading to Monza, Sauber are rather hoping to benefit from Michelin's distraction over identifying their blowout problems. If Bridgestone have stolen a march, then Sauber are best placed to take advantage of it, as a small gain in race day pace pushes them strongly up the field. For the same reason, a wet race would be an ideal aid to the outfit's prospects, offering the team a genuine shot at a podium finish.

Having integrated Ferrari's engine effectively into their chassis, Sauber head to Monza with a power plant that is rated as one of the best in the field, both for power and reliability. Their new wind tunnel has yielded some rewarding developments to the aerodynamic package, allowing the team to significantly reduce drag as the season has moved forward, whilst Bridgestone have been paying more attention to their second placed team whilst Ferrari were dominant. The strong performance in Spa was no accident: Sauber are looking for more of the same.

Despite claiming sixth place in Spa, Jaguar never really looked competitive over the weekend, except when there was rain to level the playing field; the outfit are not expected to do much better in Monza either, so they are not going to give any of the front teams much to worry over.

Claims that the team's Cosworth CR6-V10 engine is one of the more powerful on the grid have not been reflected in performances on the track. Reliability has frequently been a problem, so getting the cars to the end of this race is going to require some careful tuning and a good forecast of track temperatures: reliability issues for the competition are the most likely way the team will score points, but getting the cars to the finish is going to be problematic.

Heading to Italy, Toyota are looking forward to what could be the race of their season, as they are hoping to finally be able to show off their strongest asset � the engine that propelled them so strongly in Spa. Olivier Panis has good experience and is capable of pulling a strong performance out of the car, whilst Ricardo Zonta is still out to prove he deserves a race seat next year.

Realistically, the strong engine is not going to completely overcome problems with the chassis, which means that the Japanese team are going to struggle to make it into the points without the aid of retirements. The five leading teams are looking very competitive, whilst Sauber with their Ferrari engine are threatening to be a real handful if Bridgestone have done their homework properly. Toyota are going to have to work to score points this weekend.

Following a rather lackluster showing in Spa, Jordan are expected to continue with their form by providing a buffer between Minardi and the rest of the grid. Their prospects are very polar: if the weather forecast finally proves accurate and it rains on Sunday, then their Bridgestone tyres could well let them fight to score a point. Otherwise, the best the outfit can hope for is to try and keep their cars running, and shoot for embarrassing a Jaguar driver.

As usual this season, Minardi are expected to do nothing more than make up numbers. Their outdated car and particularly engine are expected to be shown up, even though this is a relatively easy circuit for their inexperienced drivers to learn. Aiming to get their cars to the finish and praying for rain bringing mayhem is their only decent chance of scoring points, as the grid is showing more reliability than ever. The chances of them scoring points are minimal and would certainly require more than half the grid failing to finish.

Heading to the Italian Grand Prix last year, the Michelin teams were reeling from 'tyregate' � after the Bridgestone runners complained that Michelin's tyres deformed over the course of the race to finish outside the defined limits, thereby offering their teams an advantage. After being dominant for the season, Michelin spent the important test sessions ahead of the Italian Grand Prix ensuring they had a tyre that complied with the letter of the law, whilst Bridgestone got on with testing their development rubber.

In qualifying at least, there was evidence that Bridgestone were back on form, as Michael Schumacher delivered pole position for Ferrari and the supporting tifosi. His scintillating lap slipped him just ahead of a charging Juan Pablo Montoya for Williams, whose minor mistake at Variante Ascari probably cost him the top spot.

Rubens Barrichello's form continued well, claiming third spot, lapping a quarter of a second off front row pace after locking his brakes into the first corner; having beaten Schumacher in the previous three qualifying sessions, the Brazilian was understandably disappointed to see normal service resumed. Nevertheless, the second Ferrari was comfortably ahead of Kimi Raikkonen in the McLaren: the team was never on the pace of either Williams or Ferrari, so claiming fourth was excellent, as it placed him ahead of Mark Gene's fifth: the Spaniard was standing in at Williams for an injured Ralf Schumacher. Considering he had just stepped in to the car for the qualifying sessions, Gene's effort was excellent.

Jarno Trulli qualified in sixth for Renault, a second off the pace, but comfortably ahead of Jenson Button in a Bridgestone shod BAR: the team was looking in the most competitive form they had shown all season. Whether this was due to Michelin's recent discomfort putting them off their stride or a BAR affinity for the circuit is unlikely ever to be known, but the team always looked capable of showing top ten form: indeed, Jacques Villeneuve had the second BAR in tenth place, behind David Coulthard, who disappointed in the second McLaren, and Olivier Panis, whose Toyota fell short of the expectations generated by a reputation for the grid's most powerful engine.

Other notables include Jaguar's Mark Webber, who fell outside the top ten with eleventh, a casualty of the improved form of BAR, and Renault's Fernando Alonso, whose traction control let him down at the first chicane, causing him to spin out and finish qualifying dead last.

Race day was sunny after an overnight storm, but that didn't help Jordan, whose Giancarlo Fisichella was forced to pit after the formation lap.

Michael Schumacher made a solid start, staying ahead of Montoya, despite braking too late for the first chicane. Trulli exploded into third spot, making the most of Renault's excellent launch control, whilst Raikkonen led a fast starting Coulthard for fourth and fifth. Marc Gene dropped to sixth, with Panis and Villeneuve close behind. At the back, Justin Wilson's Jaguar failed to leave the grid, causing Jos Verstappen to take evasive action. As the Minardi swerved, it was collected by Fernando Alonso in the second Renault, spitting the car into the air. Despite the airborne experience, Alonso's Renault only lost a front wing, which was restored in an immediate pitstop, which incidentally saw the car topped off with fuel.

At the front, Montoya took advantage of Schumacher's poor first corner to attack into Curva Grande, getting alongside by the second chicane. Hard but fair driving by the German saw him hold on to the lead, costing the Williams momentum and allowing Trulli to attempt a pass into the first Lesmo. However, the Columbian held on to the position, then the Renault lost drive and stopped with a hydraulic problem.

The race quickly settled, though the Ferrari's looked stronger as the laps mounted. Schumacher's lead grew to four seconds after ten laps whilst Barrichello closed up on Montoya.

On lap eleven, Coulthard kicked off the stops, followed in by Panis. Raikkonen and Gene stopped on the next lap from fourth and fifth, returning in the same positions. Barrichello stopped in lap thirteen, with Schumacher and Montoya following suit a lap later. The Columbian was three seconds behind Schumacher after the stops and proceeded to close the gap fast, though he never got close enough to challenge for the lead.

Behind the leaders there was little action, barring Alonso's charge through the pack as he recovered from the disastrous opening lap.

The second round of stops saw no change to positions, though Barrichello discovered Raikkonen close on his tail after the McLaren driver raised his pace; however, there was little action besides retirements and Alonso continuing to work through the field, before the processional race reached an anti-climactic finish.

Points paying positions - pitstops

1. M.Schumacher    Ferrari 2
2. Montoya Williams-BMW 2
3. Barrichello Ferrari 2
4. Raikkonen McLaren-Mercedes 2
5. Gene    Williams-BMW 2
6. Villeneuve    BAR-Honda 2
7. Webber Jaguar-Cosworth 2
8. Alonso Renault 2

Classified: 13 from 20 starters

Fastest lap: M.Schumacher, 1:21.834

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