Atlas F1 Magazine: The 2004 German GP Preview

Whilst the original engine-breaking Hockenheim circuit has been completely revised to make it somewhat anodyne � it tests everything, but not very hard. A good lap here requires medium downforce coupled with as much power, traction, grip and braking as the teams can put together without upsetting the balance of the car. Grip levels are not expected to be too high, but there should be sufficient to promote overtaking. The weather is something of an unknown for most of the weekend, though most forecasts anticipate a wet race, even though they disagree about the other sessions.

In their current form, the honours at Hockenheim have been split between Ferrari and Williams, but the odds this year are most certainly on Ferrari taking home another trophy, even though Michael Schumacher can never take his home event for granted, as it often seems to be his bugbear. However, without luck playing against him, the World Champion is looking good for yet another win.

A three-stop strategy is the best compromise between qualifying well and racing, though a two-stop approach presents some interesting options for dealing with traffic and is arguably better in the event of a poor qualifying session. Whilst overtaking is possible, it is difficult unless there is a considerable difference between the car performances, so it is important for strategies to avoid getting cars stuck behind slower competition.

Bridgestone are looking for a wet weekend � Michelin were very strong here last year, and if the temperatures get up then they will be a handful again, whilst Bridgestone's wet weather dominance has yet to be shown this season. Despite a number of predicted wet weather races, the opportunity has simply not presented itself.

Sauber's improved form has to be worrying the Michelin runners � particularly Williams, who could find themselves struggling to contain the privateer outfit, whilst McLaren and Renault are clearly giving BAR a headache. Nevertheless, if Ferrari are off the pace, there are three teams that are lining up to snatch a race win.

Powering down the pit straight at the revised Hockenheim circuit, you reach 183mph/ 294kph in seventh gear before dabbing the brakes for the fast Nordkurve. Taken at 125mph/200kph, it is important to maintain your speed through this right-hander. Jumping the curbs as you exit, you accelerate along to Parabolica, a tight right hander, which we believe will be negotiated at 68mph/110kph in second and marks the beginning of the new section of the track.

A slight left hander immediately follows Parabolika and flicks you onto a long sweeping left curve. Taken flat out, it is estimated that you will reach speeds of 192mph/310kph in seventh gear, before braking dramatically for the right-handed hairpin that has replaced the Ostkurve. Probably taken at some 43mph/70kph, it is the tightest corner on the track and sees you rejoin the old circuit momentarily. Accelerating out, it is estimated that you will reach 186mph/300kph in seventh before braking for the new Spitzkehre complex.

This begins with a fast right hander that will probably see speeds of 62mph/100kph in second gear. A quick burst of power follows along a short straight, before negotiating a tighter left hander. A slight left kink is followed by a sweeping right hander, which will take you back onto the original back straight. You will again build up speed at full throttle as you burst out of the forest and into the Stadium complex.

The Mobil 1 Kurve marks the entry to the complex and this fast right hander is taken in fourth gear at 105mph/169kph. Next is the long left hairpin of Sachs, shifting down into second it is negotiated at 65mph/105kph. The track then sweeps through a slight left-right kink on the approach to the final section of the Stadium complex and the lap, the S�dkurve. This double apex right hand hairpin is taken at some 95mph/152kph in third and leads you back onto the start-finish straight to begin another lap.

Despite being pushed in France and England by the competition, Ferrari have continued to dominate the scene this year and there is little reason to believe they will do anything else in Germany � certainly they arrive as favourites.

Considering past form, it has to be said that the German Grand Prix has not always treated Michael Schumacher too well. If he is to have an off weekend in the season, or something is to go wrong, this is the place it is most likely to happen - last year saw a puncture four laps from the finish. Rubens Barrichello can go very well here, but is not much luckier � last year, he was taken out at the start.

Even if Ferrari are holding developments on this car for the remainder of the season, there is no doubt it is still the pick of the crop. If it rains, they should be unstoppable, but even in hot dry weather they will be the force to reckon with; particularly while they have the vision to find the space on the track to leverage the best from the package through constructive strategies.

Although Williams' recent revisions have not brought the team the step forward they were looking for, they can never be written off entirely. Montoya goes very well at the revised Hockenheim, and Pizzonia has a lot to prove after being thrown out of Jaguar, then passed over for the last two races in favour of Marc Gene.

The circuit no longer hands the biggest rewards to the most powerful engine, but that wouldn't be the best news for BMW anyway: they no longer carry the reputation as the biggest puncher in town. However, as the team continue integrating changes they have developed for the car, and they continue to make steady improvements. McLaren and Renault might have stepped ahead over the last couple of races, but the team expect to close them back down over the next few events and continue the challenge to get on terms with Ferrari.

However, in Germany the team are expected to struggle to mix it effectively with BAR, Renault and McLaren, so the starting point for the weekend has to be simply scoring points: they see strategy as the key to performing well, which is a clear admission that they haven't the outright pace to compete effectively at this point.

After proving a revelation at Silverstone, it appears that the McLaren team have brought themselves back in to the fray. It is too late in the year to do much about winning the Constructors' Championship, and the Drivers' is mathematically out of contention too, but some strong finishes are required to bring them back up the rankings.

The revised package goes to the circuit after some Hockenheim specific set-up work was completed at Silverstone, which will display how well the team understand their new car. If they can dial the car in anything like as well as they did for the last two events, then McLaren will expect to be the Michelin team to beat. Both drivers are gaining ever more confidence in the car, and they finally feel they have a machine that is capable of winning races. Of course, they still have to beat Schumacher, but if the rain stays off and the temperatures rise, then that is a real possibility.

That said, if the set-up work is not spot on, the car might qualify well but it will chew up the tyres through the race and drop down the grid.

If there is anything the Renault package is noted for this year, it is that they done a good job in every department. They have a balanced chassis, efficient aerodynamics, excellent braking and high torque. Whilst the package might not be quite as solid as Ferrari's overall, it is respected along the pitlane, and widely expected to go well in Hockenheim. Considering the outfit are down on power, that might seem counterintuitive, but what they lack in top speed is made up by delivering on their impressive torque and they carry a lot of speed through corners, courtesy of the strength of their aerodynamic package. Updates to engine and the aero package will do no harm either.

There is some chance the team will aim for consistency and try for two points finishes rather than running right on the edge of performance and risking reliability issues, but if there is any chance they can push Ferrari, they will take it. Both drivers a capable of running well in Germany, as they demonstrated last year. If the temperature gets up and the rain stays away, then Renault should be a team to watch: they have continued to improve their car and in France, applied some pressure to Ferrari.

After spending most of the season as the nearest thing to being Ferrari's challengers, BAR have been dismayed to see first Renault then McLaren beat them with outright pace at the last couple of events. They have been continuing to develop their car, but discovering their revised aerodynamics and engine have not been as good a step forward as their rivals has been something of a shock.

Although the team are talking a strong line for Hockenheim, there is little doubt that Renault's excellent traction and ability to look after their tyres is going to make them very competitive. In order to beat the French outfit this time around, getting the cars dialled in to the circuit quickly is vital � which is where their third driver is an important advantage: Anthony Davidson's performance is going to be critical. Furthermore, the team really need both drivers to score points.

Beyond the strategic need to beat Renault for the Constructors' Championship, they are worried about the points McLaren are likely to take away. Having apparently sorted out their balance and tyre wear issues from France, the team were strong in Silverstone and can be again in Germany.

Given McLaren's impressive return to form, it would be easy to overlook the massive transformation that Sauber have managed. Giancarlo Fisichella spent the Silverstone weekend on the pace, then raced from the back of the grid to finish in the points after he suffered an engine failure and so didn't take the second qualifying. It is hard to argue that it wasn't on pure merit.

Hockenheim will show off the aerodynamic changes to the bodywork that served the team so well in England, and the upgraded Ferrari engine will certainly not go amiss. Fisichella likes the revised circuit, too: provided they can get the car balanced well enough to leverage the engine, they can go very well. Felipe Massa did not have quite a good Silverstone, but he could go well this weekend: the revised chassis clearly inspires both the drivers' confidence.

Whilst it is hard to see from the results at Silverstone, Jaguar have made progress at the season mid-point; they are heading to Germany with some optimism. Admittedly, Sauber have been more impressive with their progress, and Toyota's updates could prove troublesome for the outfit, but if Jaguar can get their cars to last the distance, whilst unlikely to score points, they might menace Sauber.

Mark Webber seems to be getting his qualifying act together again; Silverstone's performance was on a heavier fuel load than many of the cars behind � perhaps a better strategy would have helped overall, but the team are clearly still behind the Australian and pushing to get him into the points.

Toyota are taking their revised package to Germany after delaying its introduction from Silverstone. They are rather hoping for a repeat of last year � qualifying in the top ten and finishing in the top six with both cars � but realistically are unlikely to play too much part in the midfield.

Whilst the new could represent a considerable step forward, the bottom line is that most of the parts will be running for the first time this weekend. And if it wasn't hard enough to set up a car that is largely new and unknown, if there are a couple of wet sessions, then there is on way the team are going to extract the best from the car.

Jordan are taking their Silverstone specification engine and some minor upgrades to the circuit. The car is not going to set the world alight, and they are clearly off the pace of the mid-field, so running Bridgestone tyres at a hot circuit will do them few favours. However, if it rains, then prospects look far better for the team, as they expect to be on the right rubber.

Both drivers are looking forward to the event. It is the home race for Nick Heidfeld, so he is looking forward to some support from the fans, whilst Giorgio Pantano remembers the circuit fondly for providing him with a German Formula Three win. Whilst they are looking for a step forward from their mechanical grip, it is not expected to have much impact on other teams.

On the back of a terrible weekend in Silverstone, Minardi will consider themselves fortunate if they have a 'normal' weekend, and just prop up the grid. Without testing at Hockenheim this year, the team are going to struggle to get their cars set up, and without significant developments to bring forward, even a good set-up will leave them some way off the pace.

Last time the circus went to Hockenheim, it was to see a dominant performance by Juan Pablo Montoya that launched him right into the Championship battle. Whilst not the most impressive race of the season, it opened up the title chase.

Montoya's pole position in Hockenheim came as little surprise, as it merely confirmed that Williams were indeed maintaining their form. He pipped Ralf Schumacher to the spot by a couple of hundredths, reversing the results from the Friday qualifying session. Neither Williams looked like being anywhere other than right at the front of the grid.

Rubens Barrichello, hot off his win in Silverstone, was a couple of tenths off the pace for pole; Jarno Trulli was only a couple of tenths further back again, despite carrying fuel for a two stop strategy, rather than the three stoppers in front of him. The third row saw Championship protagonists Kimi Raikkonen and Michael Schumacher alongside each other; the German seemed to be off the pace all weekend � as he often is at this race � whilst Raikkonen continued to extract solid performances from the McLaren.

Olivier Panis made the most of the smooth surface, putting his improving Toyota into seventh place. Cristiano da Matta was close behind in ninth, with Fernando Alonso splitting the two after struggling with a damaged component in the brake mechanism. Other notables included David Coulthard, who qualified tenth after crashing his car badly in the second practice, and Jenson Button, who landed seventeenth after complaining that his car developed massive oversteer � though going off on the last corner could not have helped.

If Germany was the perfect race for Montoya, Ralf Schumacher's race could not have been much worse. Off the line, Barrichello and Raikkonen closed along the left of the German, but the driver did not see them and moved left to take his entry into the corner. This squeezed Barrichello into Raikkonen, who span and collected Ralf before hitting the tyre wall at high speed.

This caused mayhem in the pack, with Firman taking Frentzen out directly and causing Wilson to run into him. This all caused a safety car to be brought out, with Montoya leading Trulli, Alonso, Michael Schumacher, Webber, Coulthard, Panis and da Matta. The restart saw little change, though Coulthard took Webber at the hairpin; Alonso was being pressured by Schumacher and Montoya stretched out a ten second lead.

Pit stops started on lap 14 with Trulli and Panis diving in; da Matta taking advantage of his team-mate's stop to pass Webber on the track. Montoya and Schumacher pitted on the same lap, though the German was slower due to taking on the fuel for a two-stop strategy against Montoya's three. By the end of the stops, Montoya had a twelve second advantage, and a throttle that would only open 93% of the way. It was aided by Trulli's pace, which was slowing down the chasing pack who could not pass him.

On lap 31, Schumacher passed Alonso as the Spaniard ran wide at turn three, and set after Trulli, who was now 20 seconds behind Montoya. Panis pitted from 6th followed by Montoya, who rejoined in the lead. Trulli and Schumacher stopped together, with no position change; Alonso stopped a lap later and remained behind the Ferrari. Coulthard stayed out three laps more before pitting and returning to the track ahead of Alonso.

By lap 45, Montoya had a 50 second lead, whilst Schumacher was closing on Trulli, who was starting to struggle with worn tyres. After losing a further 15 seconds to Montoya over ten laps, Schumacher forced his way around the Renault. It took Coulthard a further lap to get around Trulli, giving Schumacher some breathing room.

With four laps remaining, Schumacher suffered a puncture to the rear left, half way around the circuit. He completed the lap and pitted for replacement tyres, losing five places in the process. Montoya won by over a minute, whilst Webber slid into a gravel trap making a last ditch effort to grab the last point from Button.

Points paying positions - pitstops

1. Montoya      Williams-BMW 3
2. Coulthard    McLaren-Mercedes 2
3. Trulli     Renault 2
4. Alonso     Renault 2
5. Panis        Toyota 3
6. da Matta     Toyota 3
7. M.Schumacher Ferrari 3
8. Button     BAR Honda 2

Classified: 12 from 20 starters

Fastest lap: Montoya, 1:14.917

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