Atlas F1 Magazine: The 2004 Belgian GP Preview

Circuit National de Francorchamps, bounded by the towns of Malmedy, Stavelot and Francorchamps in the Ardennes, hosts the Belgian Grand Prix. This circuit is well loved by the teams and drivers, and renowned for letting a driver's skills make some difference � particularly through the renowned Eau Rouge. The size of the circuit, with a variety of corners and straights over undulating ground ensure that finding the perfect setup is nigh impossible. Overtaking is possible, particularly as tyres wear, and there is often rain at one end of the circuit whilst the other is dry. Accurate weather predictions are rare.

As the Formula One circus returns to Spa after a one year sabbatical, it is well to remember that this has been Michael Schumacher's playground from the outset: he has won six of the last eleven races there. Rain is expected over the weekend, and would come as no surprise in the race. However, this only serves to improve the odds on a Ferrari victory, as they are on the preferred tyre.

The circuit remains a favourite of the drivers, and with some reason. Due to the technical nature of the lap, which includes medium and high speed corners on top of the usual for Formula One slow corners, alongside high lateral and vertical stresses and relatively low downforce, there is a real opportunity for a talented driver to wring speed from an underperforming chassis.

The tyre war is going to continue. Michelin have been working hard to bring their teams up to Ferrari's pace, but this is one circuit that is likely to throw a spanner in the works � it is rare to have a dry weekend here. Changes to the Bus Stop chicane and pit entry are intended to slow the cars down a little, but should not have much impact. It remains to be seen if the redesigned corner affects overtaking, as this has been a favoured spot in past years.

Challenge could come from a number of sources. Jenson Button, if he demonstrates the form shown in Germany, is the most likely to take the fight to Schumacher; however, with the team still apparently in shock over his pending departure, this could be a forlorn hope. Renault's recent form, whilst sufficient for podium finishes, has not threatened to win them races.

If McLaren have resolved their race pace issues, then Kimi Raikkonen has a realistic chance of giving Schumacher a tough race; meanwhile, Williams hope their revised aerodynamics will work well, which would offer Montoya the package to hunt for a podium finish � though he will not be expected to beat Schumacher.

Spa is a circuit that offers some overtaking opportunities; however, if it is dry, then once the field has sorted itself into pace order this could a processional affair. However, showers during qualifying to shake up the grid, or the race to add confusion to the drivers' strategies, should result in significant on track action.

Although the two pit-stop approach was clearly the best to run in 2002, three stops is likely to be favoured this year, as a lighter load to fight for a better grid spot is wise. Teams expecting rain during the race will carry more fuel than their rivals, and run softer suspension.

On the power along the short start-finish straight at Spa Francorchamps, you reach 180mph/280km/h in sixth gear as you approach the La Source Hairpin. The tight right-hander is taken at 35mph/56km/h. You accelerate downhill out of La Source, reaching some 181mph/290km/h in seventh gear before arriving at the renowned Eau Rouge. Taken flat out, the track drops before climbing steeply left, right then left again at speeds of up to 180mph/290km/h still in seventh gear.

It is vital to maintain your speed through Eau Rouge as it leads onto the fastest section of the track, the Kemmell straight, which sees you reach 206mph/330km/h. You then brake hard for the right-hander of Les Combes, which is taken at 87mph/140km/h in third. The left-right flick of the third gear Malmedy chicane follows immediately and sees your speed increase slightly to some 110mph/177km/h through the corner. A quick burst of acceleration, reaching 165mph/265km/h, takes you to the Rivage hairpin. Braking hard you negotiate Rivage at 69mph/112km/h in second gear.

The downhill right-hander is off-camber and you can experience understeer. Accelerating out of Rivage, you then dab the brakes for a 100mph/160km/h left hander, before once again getting on the power along the short straight that takes you to Pouhon. Entering the fast double apex left-hander at 133mph/215km/h in fourth, your speed increases to 170mph/272km/h through the corner. A short burst on the throttle takes you to the right-left chicane of Fagnes, entered at 87mph/140km/h in third gear, your speed increases slightly for the second section to 106mph/170km/h. Along another short straight, you reach 156mph/250km/h before braking slightly for the double apex right-hander of Stavelot.

You enter the bumpy downhill bend at 95mph/152km/h in third before accelerating to 150mph/240km/h in fourth on the exit. This takes you onto the long sweeping left-hander of Blanchiment. Flicking up through the gears you reach 190mph/305km/h in seventh gear before braking hard for the revised bus stop chicane, which has been made less acute. The pit lane entry has also been relocated to mid-way through the chicane away from the racing line.

The chicane is now a right-left flick and is negotiated at 56mph/90km/h and takes you back onto the pit straight to start another lap.

With Spa dominated by Michael Schumacher for the last decade, there is no doubt that Ferrari head to the circuit as hot favourites. The impressive form of the reigning World Champion shows no sign of abating, and without a solid step forward by Michelin to aid their closest rivals, there is little the competition can be expected to do about it.

Rubens Barrichello, despite failing to match his team leader so far this year, goes well at Spa and is expected to score a podium finish. The car itself will show limited improvements as Ferrari's development efforts are mostly focussed on getting their 2005 car designed; however, with the performance advantage the team have demonstrated throughout the season, this doesn't mean that their rivals will have succeeded in closing the gap.

Rain is a common feature of the race, but with Bridgestone apparently continuing to hold a distinct wet weather advantage, this should only serve to improve the relative performance of Ferrari.

If Spa has been a happy hunting ground for Michael Schumacher, it has been something of a frustration for Williams in recent visits. The characteristics of Spa mostly match Williams strengths - it rewards a strong engine and effective mechanical grip � but the teams aero package could be stronger in high speed corners. This, alone, should stop them providing a real challenge to Ferrari.

However, the remaining Michelin runners are going to have to be on the top of their game to stay ahead of the Grove outfit. Juan Pablo Montoya is respected for excellent car control, which should be a factor as the weekend progresses: the team are looking to him for an outstanding weekend. Whilst Antonio Pizzonia does not have the experience of Ralf Schumacher, who is again replaces, he has raced at the circuit in other formulae, and is keen to demonstrate his place is justified; this might see him overdriving and underperforming, or he could finally demonstrate the promise that Williams insist has been shown in testing.

The team will continue with their new "traditional" nose and other aerodynamic developments, and are expecting good things from Michelin's tyres. Like all the non-Bridgestone runners, they are hoping the weekend stays dry.

The biggest question mark heading to Spa is probably over the performance that McLaren can muster for the race weekend. That the car is transformed from the dog they started the season with is unquestioned, but quite the level of performance they will put together is something of an unknown.

In France, the latest package was disappointing. David Coulthard had qualified third � testament to his pace at the circuit and the progress the team were making � but on race day, the car was eating its tyres so the results were not so good. Heading the Spa, the team are expected to have improved the wear issues, and their high speed package has more improvements coming through. Furthermore, with both drivers now able to be confident in the handling of the car, they can be expected to make some differences individually.

Whilst McLaren cannot be expected to beat Ferrari at this circuit, if they can get the car set-up well, then a strong qualifying performance and respectable race should be on the cards: they could even target a podium finish.

Despite holding on to second place in the Constructors' Championship and scoring a podium in Hungary, Renault must have some concerns about their rivals as they head to Spa. The French outfit have the best chassis on the grid with an excellent aerodynamic solution, so they are able to give their drivers a solid platform to work from. However, this is a circuit where the emphasis on acceleration away from a slow corner � a feature of most of the stops on the calendar � is minimised; rather, carrying momentum through high speed corners and mid-range acceleration is the order of the day.

This is not to say the team are going to be off the pace. Although Jarno Trulli has never shone here in the race, his improved form this season is a real factor, and he is expected to have a good weekend. Similarly, although Fernando Alonso has only been here once, in a Minardi, he is recognised by the team as an excellent driver with the potential to make a difference. Accordingly, it will come as little surprise if either or both drivers has a strong race and can get a little extra from their cars. Nonetheless, getting on a par with Ferrari is exceptionally unlikely � the team are going to be looking just to get both cars to the finish in the points as they tyre to defend their Championship position.

Things did not go entirely according to plan for BAR in Hungary as both cars disappointed in the race after solid qualifying sessions: Jenson Button never looked like catching Montoya, let alone Alonso who had jumped past the BARs from fifth to third at the start. This did not appear to be the same car that had looked capable of challenging for the lead in Germany. Whether this is related to the fuss over Button's pending departure or the team simpler were not quite on a par with Williams and Renault remains to be discovered.

Fortunately for them, Spa is a very different circuit to Hungary, one that will reward both a strong engine and a solid, neutral set-up � both of which the team can supply their drivers in abundance. Their medium downforce set-up, as used in Germany, is apparently better optimised in their package than the full downforce configuration used at the last race, so their relative performance to Renault should improve. Furthermore, if Button can maintain the form he has demonstrated for most of the season, and Takuma Sato can keep consistency to his laps, then this team are going to be the strongest contenders to Ferrari in Spa and expects both drivers to fight for a spot on the podium.

Sauber are looking for Bridgestone to provide them with better tyres in Spa, as their outing in Hungary suffered from Michelin's relative strength. If the circuit is too hot, then despite having an improved qualifying pace, their tyres are not showing the performance of the French rubber, and they will struggle. If it is a cooler day, or there is rain, then Sauber expect have the strength to score points in their own right.

Sauber's aerodynamics have been improved considerably through the season, and the updated Ferrari engine they are running is the one of the best in the field. Their chassis itself may not be on a par with Renaults, but the whole package is sound, and they are looking for the outright performance to keep McLaren, Williams, Renault and BAR honest; finishing ahead of Jaguar and Toyota is an expectation.

Giancarlo Fisichella is Sauber's main hope for the race and they are looking for a strong drive. Fisichella appears to have an affinity for the circuit that should earn the team valuable places. His strength at Spa was demonstrated by a comprehensive demolition of Jenson Button to finish third when both drove for Benetton in perhaps the worst car the outfit produced in a decade. Felipe Massa's only visit to Spa � with Sauber in 2002 � was a disappointment as he qualified badly before suffering an engine failure in the race.

Jaguar's form is better than it was at the start of the year, but despite getting them into the points for two of the last three races, there is little doubt that they remain behind their main rivals, and are fighting to pick up scraps when the regular points scoring teams make mistakes or fail to finish. This should be the case again in Spa.

Mark Webber has earned sufficient reputation as a driver to attract a drive at Williams, but his form at Spa is not really known. His only outing � in a Minardi � was cut short when the gearbox gave way early on, so his experience here is limited. For Christian Klien, this means outperforming Webber is almost an imperative, as it is probably the last chance he'll get to make a name for himself: a conservative qualifying lap or race will do him little good, so he can be expected to explore his limits.

Ricardo Zonta's first outing with Toyota in Cristiano da Matta's place was not outstanding, and nor was their new car, though both seemed to be heading in the right direction. The revised Toyota chassis appears to have better potential than the one it replaces, but the team are still developing their understanding of how to extract the best from it. However, although Spa is a technical track that benefits from a good set-up, provided Toyota can find a relatively neutral set-up for the high speed corners, the drivers have an opportunity to make something of a difference.

The latest Toyota engine is widely respected for its top end power, though the drivability is suspect, compared against the Ferrari unit. Nevertheless, it should help the team overcome many of the ills that might arise from difficulties with the chassis, as this circuit rewards power on the long stretches at full throttle.

Olivier Panis' enormous experience has never really been much of a benefit at Spa. The driver has had equipment failure, or just plain had a bad day, and been outperformed by his teammate for the last three visits. Zonta raced in Belgium for BAR, where he has a retirement and a finish (behind Jacques Villeneuve) to his credit. This experience should at least give him some insight for his second outing with Toyota, but after the difficult showing in Hungary, he needs a good weekend.

Although this circuit allows the drivers to make a difference, they need to have a predicable car underneath them in order to make up time. Getting the Jordan set up properly has been a problem all year. When the car is well balanced, it lacks downforce. As the downforce goes on, the car gains understeer and an evil snap-oversteer that makes it hard to predict in high speed corners.

Nick Heidfeld has never had a good result in Spa, whilst Giorgio Pantano, of course, has never raced a Formula One car there. The Ford engine the team use is a couple of stages behind Jaguar's unit � and despite being a significant upgrade on the one they started the season with, the unit continues to be off the pace and less than perfectly reliable. Consequently, the best hope for the team is that there is a solid rain, letting them leverage the wet-weather advantage of their Bridgestone tyres to scrape into the points.

Minardi will be looking to get their cars to the finish of this race: simply completing the course with their inexperienced drivers and out-dated engines can be considered something of an achievement. The chances of them scoring points are minimal and would certainly require more than half the grid failing to finish.

Last year, the Belgian Grand Prix was struck off the calendar due to issues surrounding advertising, however, in 2002 the event took place with Arrows under the cloud of closure and the Championships won by Ferrari; however, the battle for second place was still being hotly contested.

The last time Formula One visited Spa, the rules were different � with drivers permitted a maximum of twelve laps to set their qualifying time. In the event, despite using only nine of his laps (saving tyres for the race), Michael Schumacher finally claimed his only ever pole position at the circuit. Considering his phenomenal race day record, it is something of a mystery why this had been so elusive in previous years, but in the dominant F2002, no-one was going to deny the maestro his day.

Second on the grid was Kimi Raikkonen, who was demonstrating excellent form with a rapidly improving McLaren. The Finn was quick all weekend, and whilst not a massive threat to Schumacher, pipped Barrichello in the other Ferrari, demonstrating that he was not just making up the numbers. The Williams duo disappointed with fourth and fifth, Ralf Schumacher leading the way as Montoya complained that Raikkonen stayed on the racing line and slowed him on his best lap. David Coulthard, on a harder compound in the other McLaren, qualified in sixth, half a second down on Raikkonen.

Behind the top teams, Jarno Trulli qualified sixth for Renault, ahead of Eddie Irvine in a Jaguar who just pipped Mika Salo's Toyota and Jenson Button in the other Renault. Pedro de la Rosa rounded out the top eleven in the other Jaguar. BAR were off the pace, but Villeneuve qualified twelfth, ahead of Allan McNish in the other Toyota.

Despite the circuit's reputation for inclement weather, the race turned out to be a dry affair. Off the line, Raikkonen was slow to get away which allowed Barrichello to slip through and follow Schumacher into the first corner. Montoya passed Ralf through of La Source, moving into fourth place and punishing the German for taking a wide line through the corner. Coulthard took advantage of Ralf's poor exit to get under his wing through Eau Rouge: the Scot used the slipstream to pass comfortably ahead of Les Combes.

On the second lap, Raikkonen ran wide at Pouhon, letting Montoya through as he struggled to stay in control of his car: however, the Colombian was unable to match the pace of the Ferraris, which rapidly opened up the gap to the rest of the field. The race was largely processional, though there was some action at the back of the pack. Jordan's Fisichella defended his position against Villeneuve, despite the Colombian's aggressive attempts to pass, until lap thirteen.

The pitstops started on lap sixteen, with Schumacher stopping early � holding more than fourteen seconds advantage over Barrichello and half a minute on Montoya, whom he still led on rejoining the track. Ralf lost control at this point, spinning off before rejoining behind Trulli.

Barrichello stopped, rejoining in fifth, before Raikkonen and Montoya stopped together. The Williams crew did a tidier job and kept their man ahead. Coulthard made the most of an extra lap on the track, and after his stop slotted in front of his team-mate.

The race remained processional, with Schumacher opening up a full minute on Montoya by the second set of stops. These started with Salo pitting on lap 27, Trulli coming in two laps later, and Schumacher coming in on lap 30: he rejoined still in the lead, ahead of Barrichello. The Brazilian kept second when he made his stop a lap later.

Ralf pitted next, before hitting 'the wrong button' on the exit, costing valuable time in his quest to pass Trulli, though the Renault eventually retired with a blown engine. Raikkonen and Montoya pitted next, but the McLaren driver's race was shortly over as the Mercedes engine gave up spectacularly, as, shortly after, did the Honda in the back of Fisichella's Jordan.

The race remained processional to the end, though Schumacher backed off considerably for the final laps. It was a dominant display by Ferrari and particularly Schumacher: this was a definitive showing of the World Champion in the dominant F2002.

Points paying positions - pitstops

1. M.Schumacher    Ferrari 2
2. Barrichello Ferrari 2
3. Montoya Williams-BMW 2
4. Coulthard McLaren-Mercedes 2
5. R.Schumacher    Williams-BMW 2
6. Irvine Jaguar-Cosworth 2
7. Salo Toyota 2
8. Villeneuve    BAR-Honda 2

Classified: 11 from 20 starters

Fastest lap:M.Schumacher, 1:47.176

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