The Stars Align
By Will Gray, England
Atlas F1 GP Correspondent
In a season that brought virtually no surprise on race weekends, the real competition seems to be held in board rooms, as the Formula One drivers battle for the remaining spots in the 2005 line up. Marked as one of the biggest reshuffle in years, as many as thirteen driver changes will be made by next season - and there's plenty of surprises and disappointments left... Will Gray, Atlas F1's GP Correspondent and Paddock Resident, reviews the ten teams and their twenty seats - who's going where, who is being left out, and what question marks remain hanging
Stability has been the key to Ferrari's supreme success over the last six years. Nothing is going to change in 2005 and by the end of next season, if all goes according to plan, World Champion German Michael Schumacher and his Brazilian teammate Rubens Barrichello will be the longest-running partnership in Formula One history. And one of the most successful.
While some teams believe change is the key to keep things fresh, Ferrari's internal motivation, which is displayed regularly by the enthusiasm of Schumacher and technical director Ross Brawn at the track, seems to be all that is needed to keep the scarlet destroyer gunning down the opposition and sailing towards title after title.
Jean Todt's 'dream team' of Brawn, Schumacher and Byrne have never been more stable and the testing team, too, is strong with Luca Badoer continuing to perform as the workhorse and Italian Formula 3000 driver Vitantonio Liuzzi tipped to be the Maranello young gun for 2005 in the same way Brazilian Felipe Massa underwent a 'training year' in 2003.
The weakest link can only be the motivation of Barrichello and, aside from a shock retirement of one of the key men or a surprise technical stumble, he is the only reason the Italian team could break down. Whether it is his own doing or not, he appears to be slipping further into the shadows this year but like Schumacher et al, he is under contract until the end of 2006.
That means that even if Barrichello is now discontent with taking second best, he is guaranteed a well-paid and successful - if relatively unchallenging - career until 2006 and the instability of decisions over future driver line-ups will only begin after next season. That means Barrichello will continue doing what he is told so Schumacher can lead the chase for yet another title.
In perhaps the most enticing and intriguing team change for 2005, Williams will endure or enjoy a wholesale clearout. They are yet to confirm their final two-car line-up but have already secured their main man for the future in Australian 'superhero' Mark Webber, the universally popular and highly talented Jaguar driver who they claim fits their mould to perfection.
Ask a Jaguar insider how good Webber is and, even after the announcement of his departure, you will find a fairly consistent answer: Very, very good. A quick look at Webber's results - which famously reveal he has never finished higher than he did in his debut race - suggests he is more king of public relations than he is king of performance racing. But that, it seems, is not quite true.
Jaguar insist the numbers never lie, and they have plenty of figures to back up exactly why Webber has been snatched away from them. Results may not yet be in Webber's bag, but the leaping cat's engineers, thanks to clever computer simulation, can tell you the exact lap time their car should do if it is driven to its absolute limit - and Webber is never very far away.
He also has had the measure of every one of his teammates and while it is clear to see that none, with the possible exception of Briton Justin Wilson last year, have been out of the top drawer, the claims that Webber has always enjoyed the better equipment, most recently claimed by Williams's test driver Antonio Pizzonia, are widely rebuffed by insiders as simply untrue.
Webber is raw racing, refined. And that is why Sir Frank Williams believes the Australian is the man to take his team back to the top. That and his ultimate concentration, his commitment, his workmanship, his attention to detail, his out-and-out belief, his personal competitiveness and his vibrant and positive personality.
All those qualities are easy to note from his recent 24-Hour bike ride. His competitive spirit and attention to detail were displayed by the fact he took the time to gather his team together and discuss their optimum strategy. His compassion and commitment were apparent afterwards, when he promised to return to Jaguar next year to join in again.
Webber is what Montoya is not. Williams enjoys the Colombian's raw racing, but it still needs refining to make him complete. It is true that Webber has not yet competed at the very top level in Formula One, let alone against a very competitive teammate. But even Schumacher admits he should be able to cope and Williams are very much hoping he will.
The question is, who will be his teammate? German Nick Heidfeld recently popped up as a leading candidate after it was revealed Williams tried to sign him up to test before the German Grand Prix. They failed - due to money issues over his release from Jordan - but, to use a football parlance, he is available on a free-transfer at the end of the season.
German. Suits BMW. But could he become a bit of a Heinz Harald Frentzen at Williams? Webber said he wants a competitive teammate and in Heidfeld he would certainly have a strong racer. Yet he remains the most overlooked member of the pitlane, snubbed by McLaren in favour of former Sauber teammate Kimi Raikkonen and ignored by Ferrari when they snatched his then teammate Felipe Massa.
The reason for that is more down to a long tie-up with Mercedes than a lack of racing talent. That tie-up is now over but the confidence crippling knock-backs will make Heidfeld even more desperate to create an immediate impact if he finally secures a top-level drive. And desperation does not make a good racing driver, no matter how determined.
Williams do have other options. Italian Jarno Trulli has been taken out the frame after strong predictions that he will join Toyota. But some believe there is still a chance for him at Williams. If not, the options are looking thinner and thinner. All that is left are current test drivers or former Champions.
Test driver Marc Gene blew what little chance he had with his disappointing performances as stand-in for Ralf Schumacher in France and Britain while Pizzonia did little to help his cause by being overcautious in qualifying in Germany. He finished in the points but Williams bosses talked of "solid" and "encouraging" performances rather than "sensational" and "satisfying".
Then there is Jacques Villeneuve, who by all accounts is just dying to get back behind the wheel but is yet to receive an invitation from Williams. He has discussed the possibility with them, but that is as far as it goes. Unfortunately, it is probably as far as it will go, too.
Formula One, however, needs the Villeneuve vibe. Feisty, aggressive, openly outspoken and, when he puts his mind to it, sensationally fast, the Canadian could be a massive success or a disastrous failure alongside Webber. Either way he would give the sport a shake-up.
Having been out-performed by Frenchman Olivier Panis at times and by Briton Jenson Button on most occasions at BAR, he would quickly crumble if Webber got the better of him. And while Williams know how talented Villeneuve is, they also know all too well how fragile his mind is when it becomes unfocussed.
It is a risk. But so is signing a young gun such as Pizzonia. So, on balance, insiders suggest the team is more likely to go for experience than youth. And in that case Heidfeld's unique combination of both could be just the ticket to back up Webber's charge.
As much interest will be focussed on McLaren-Mercedes as on Williams next year, as Formula One's most potentially explosive partnership for years finally gets together. Will 'Ice Man' Kimi Raikkonen be melted by firey Juan Pablo Montoya, or will the hot-headed Colombian be out-thought by the cool collected mind of Finland's finest?
The relationship will be the key to McLaren's future success, and like his opposite number Sir Frank Williams, the Woking team's chief Ron Dennis will refuse to artificially keep the two apart. They will be allowed to go at each other like Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost did in the past. And remember, those were some of McLaren's most successful days.
It is, of course, possible that Raikkonen and Montoya will get on just fine. But the current Williams driver is moving onto what his rival has long assumed as his territory. Raikkonen made Dennis weep we he won his first race, in Malaysia in 2003, and has won a place in his heart like three-time Champion Senna and two-time title winner Mika Hakkinen did before him.
Many believe Montoya, however, is not in the McLaren mould. His vocal and sometimes critical style will not suit them, and his insistence on speaking his mind is likely to be the most difficult area to address following his move. If the team see the need to reduce his open attitude he will not be keen to follow their demands. If he remains open mouthed, the trial will begin.
Montoya enjoyed parity between cars at Williams yet became immediately upset when he believed his teammate Ralf Schumacher was being favoured. One of the reasons he left was that the team's pit calls in France last year upset him. And the problem with McLaren is there is already a natural family around Raikkonen's car that takes time to build. Montoya will not have that to hand.
That said, the partnership is initially sure to thrive in the same way that Button and Villeneuve pushed each other on in their early days together at BAR last year. If the team then fails to nurture its fire and ice, then the weaker of the pair could crumble. If it gels, the internal competition could force the team's performance higher and higher.
Renault found their lead man several years ago in Fernando Alonso and despite having Mark Webber on their books they continued to stick with the Spaniard, who has so far only delivered a small amount of what is promised. But the team have openly targeted the title for next year. And they have openly admitted Alonso is the man they want to do it with. So now is the time for him to shine.
The team, according to their statements, decided to split up what has been a successful combination of Alonso and Italian Jarno Trulli because they were gelling too well. To take on the potentially turbulent team at McLaren, the one-sided Ferrari and BAR-Honda teams and the strong, fresh face at Williams they decided they needed a change.
Trulli has always been up and down, praised for his abilities on a single lap but criticised for a lack of concentration during races. Those two elements of his make-up were there for all to see in the space of 10 weeks this year, when he claimed pole and victory in Monaco and then lost a podium place on the final lap of the race in France. And the latter came at a vital time.
Right in the middle of contract talks, when Trulli was looking to escape from current manager Briatore's reins but still remain at Renault, he was criticised by the team and even put the normally mild mannered Pat Symonds in a rage. Claims of Trulli's resurgence were quickly forgotten and any hope of manipulating a deal was brought to an end. If, indeed, there was ever any hope.
It is widely understood in the paddock that Briatore's driver links have long steered the Renault's line-up, yet that is not necessarily the case. Trulli insists he made the decision to leave, and indeed he announced it before the team. It was probably down to the fact he could not stay without staying with Briatore. Yet a non-Briatore driver has been taken on in his place.
Fisichella is not only a non-Briatore driver, he is an ex-Briatore driver who left Benetton in a similar manner to Trulli this year, after he refused to agree to continue under the flamboyant Italian's managerial wing. A move to Jordan netted him a surprise victory, and a move to Sauber this year served precisely its purpose - as a season-long parking lot.
Now Fisichella has his chance, and he has to grasp it. He has matured in all areas since his first stint with the team, the team claim. Well, he speaks slightly better English, he won a race, and he will have clocked up another 51 races since he was there. But in those races, thanks to relatively poor cars, he has only secured 32 points.
That said, he has got the better of Felipe Massa at Sauber this year. After a slow start, he clocked up one seventh, two sixths and one fourth. Massa, on the other hand, has one fifth and one eighth. Williams rate him and, in fact, if rumour is true, they signed him to secure his free release from Sauber then swapped him with Briatore to obtain Webber.
And the reason Renault did not want Webber is simple - they want success for Alonso. Briatore admitted that they needed good back-up for the Spaniard but have they secured that? Trulli and Fisichella have always seemed interchangeable during their careers, their talents different but their temperaments seemingly similar and their career paths interconnected.
Fisichella was reserve driver at Minardi the year before Trulli made his Grand Prix debut in 1997. Fisichella raced for Jordan that year then joined Benetton and Trulli switched to Jordan in 2000. The pair swapped in 2002 when Trulli joined Renault and Fisichella moved to Jordan, and now Fisichella has continued the musical chairs by replacing Trulli back at Renault.
Perhaps it is Fisichella's race-long consistency that has endeared him to Briatore but then again perhaps it is simply that Trulli would not agree to his demands and Fisichella, conveniently desperate for a top drive, fitted the bill perfectly. He will be fast, he will keep Alonso on his toes, he will pull Renault up a gear. But he will, probably, ultimately be beaten.
David Richards' squad is of only two teams at the front of the grid who look set to remain unchanged for next year and the stability and unity smack of a British Ferrari. The key personnel are virtually all secure, Honda have signed to continue in the long term and Jenson Button is their unpolished version of Michael Schumacher.
The only question mark sits over Takuma Sato, who is on his second of three years contract - but with only an option for next year, which the team has yet to exercise. The diminutive and unstoppable Japanese driver's no-backing-off style has been praised by the team and fans alike. Yet, it seems, that is no longer the way of Formula One. Points mean prizes and, with the current points system rewarding consistency, Sato's car has let the team down this season.
Button is clearly the key man, and his talents are obvious. When he scored his first podium, many believed it would be a flash in the pan. It was not. He went on to score six in seven and continues to notch up top scores, with the last race in Germany seeing another second ticked off in the box. But like the podium in the past, that first win remains elusive.
If history can be used as proof of trend then when that win comes - and it cannot be too long before it does - the floodgates will open. The team are on a roll themselves and if they take another step forward over the winter then Button could be the man to finally stand in the way of Schumacher, no matter who his teammate might be.
Richards hinted recently that now they are in the position to fight for a Championship they will have the driver pairing that can give them the best shot. In doing so, he suggested that Honda had a hand in Sato's signing and, no matter what Richards says about Honda's acceptance of any nationality now, Sato is still likely to secure the second seat again.
In fact, he may well deserve it. He has secured his first podium this year and has failed to do more solely because he has somehow inherited the poor reliability that his predecessor Jacques Villeneuve endured last season. Six failures to finish - all but one in a race when Button claimed a podium - have limited his chances. And if that is solved and he stays, he will be part of a strong pairing.
Sauber admitted even before the start of the season that they could well lose their main driver asset Fisichella when the year drew to an end. Now they know that is true, they have already set about targeting a young gun to fill his place in a bid to continue the driver development trend they worked on with Raikkonen and current driver Felipe Massa.
Brazilian Massa, despite his erratic performances in comparison to Fisichella, is already secured for 2005 - perhaps thanks to his management deal with Nicolas Todt, the son of Ferrari boss Jean Todt, and Sauber's close collaboration with Ferrari. But drivers are clamouring for the second seat as it seems the Swiss outfit is the only top team with space left for 2005.
BAR-Honda test driver Anthony Davidson fits the bill as fast, young, talented and a potential star. He has already shone in Friday practice sessions this year but even he admitted he has had a helping hand with an extra few revs and the odd new set of tyres here and there. That said, he has been consistently fast, deserves a race seat and could help Sauber fight back up the board.
Briton Gary Paffett is also being lined up for Sauber to assess. He could even be in a third car in Hungary after being targeted following impressive performances for Mercedes in the German Touring Car Championship, the DTM. And Mercedes have a history of developing good drivers - just look at Schumacher and Mark Webber. Enough said.
Vitantonio Liuzzi can also claim to be a possible piece of the jigsaw after his impressive performances in Formula 3000. Winning all but one race in the series, albeit with little strong opposition, is not easy and he has done it in style, dominating so strongly that he has been able to play around a little with the field and still claim the chequered flag at the end.
And he could fit into that jigsaw at Sauber. The team appears to be the only privateer that does not need to seek a pay driver for next year because, by all accounts, Fisichella has not been paying for his drive this season. So they will be looking for a man with talent. In Liuzzi they have just that, but with the added bonus of no attachments.
Sauber made money from the transfer of Raikkonen to McLaren and he made money from the introduction of Massa to Ferrari. He would be unable to achieve a similar feat with either Davidson or Paffett but Liuzzi could fit the pattern. But then he could go for experience with a surprise pitch for McLaren exile David Coulthard. It is a tough call which way to go.
It could be all change again at Jaguar next year. At one time, there were questions whether they would actually continue in 2005, but now the question marks are more directed at driver line-up than team future. The official team line is that Klien is 'expected' to stay there next year, but insiders are not so sure and many team members would like a change.
Webber, to many at Jaguar, is a hero. His qualities have helped the team to perform above their station this year, with a front row grid spot in Malaysia (albeit thanks to the change of regulations) but the car has let him down. And with a lack of cash on the table from Ford, the team needs someone like that to carry their Formula One hopes again next year. Or some extra cash.
David Coulthard could be the ideal man. He may not have shone against any of his teammates during his time at McLaren, but he is British, knowledgeable, has the experience of racing for a top team and has won races and was once runner-up in the Championship. Only Eddie Irvine and Johnny Herbert have brought similar knowledge to the team in the past.
Many Jaguar team members are keen on securing Coulthard, if only because the attachment to his name would continue to suggest they are a team with resources much greater than they could honestly boast. His knowledge from McLaren could, perhaps, assist Jaguar's design team too, although the only area they are lacking seems to be in the engine department.
Coulthard is keen to race and has, outwardly, been confident about his future for some time. That suggests that, with Jaguar long-since resigned to losing Webber and Coulthard fully aware he would be without a 2005 drive since last November, the two could well have met. Jaguar, even with Webber, have always had a sort of British feel, and he would well continue that marketing angle.
Test driver Bjorn Wirdheim is a young gun looking for a break but money is becoming tighter at Jaguar and if the team needs more cash, then Red Bull are likely to be eager for more control. Klien gave them a link and the team could be faced with the situation of requiring not only Klien but another Red Bull driver - perhaps Liuzzi - to pay the bills.
So Jaguar is a team that could go two ways. With Coulthard, they could remain a respected force and a British institution, but a team that can only occasionally punch above their weight. With a line-up of Klien, Wirdheim or Liuzzi - both regarded as young but talented - they could either tumble down further or, perhaps, continue the rejuvenation they have enjoyed with Webber.
Talk of the grid for 2005, Toyota will dive headlong into their most important year with former Williams driver Ralf Schumacher at the helm. By all accounts Italian Jarno Trulli - Schumacher's self-admitted favourite for teammate - will be alongside him and with top drivers finally installed in the seat of the car that should be in front, it will be sink or swim time.
The probable line-up at Toyota is one of the most interesting in the pitlane and seems to derive its roots from technical director Mike Gascoyne, who was installed at the team at the end of last year. The hard-headed design boss has worked with both Schumacher, at Jordan, and Trulli, at Renault, and has come away holding both in high regard.
Team building, says Gascoyne, is all about the people. He knows. He is one of the best team builders in the business. His 'bulldog' attitude can make life unpleasant for some, yet when those leave he is left with the people who excel in that environment. And he believes that Schumacher and Trulli are two drivers who will do just that.
Both Schumacher and Trulli have been known for taking their foot off the gas when they are not in the thick of it. Trulli, especially, can put in a faster lap than anyone on the grid but, like Schumacher, if he is on lap 32 of a 67 lap race, in the middle of a long stint with 20 seconds to the next car and 14 to the one behind him, he will often drop his pace. Not next year.
With Gascoyne growling in their ears, both Schumacher and Trulli can be expected to give their best to Toyota. And that best is, actually, quite good. For Trulli, read Monaco 2004 to see proof he can control a race. For Schumacher, look at France 2003, Malaysia 2002, and even his maiden Grand Prix win in San Marino in 2001 and you will find dominant victories from the front.
But that means Gascoyne, for all his growling, will need to come up trumps with his team in the design room to turn things around and give the two superstar drivers the tools to do the job. If they do not have the machine underneath them, their performances will probably tail off. If they have the car to do the job, they are likely to have the motivation to succeed.
JORDAN AND MINARDI
To assess the future line-ups of Jordan and Minardi requires a long-distance crystal ball and even then it would probably be foxed by a late deal to secure some extra sponsorship before the start of the season. The grid's struggling duo are unlikely to finalise their line-up until late and, unless things change, even Jordan will struggle to attract any established names.
This year Nick Heidfeld took the plunge and changed from Sauber blue into Jordan yellow. If he moves to Williams it will have done the trick. Fisichella did the same the previous year, and after his year in storage at Sauber he has secured the top drive he was seeking. But the performance drop-off at the back of the grid could see an end to this trend next year.
Both Jordan and Minardi need pay drivers. Fact. And unless the Sheikhs come to Jordan's rescue, that will continue to be the situation into next year. Even if the rumours of an Arab buyout are true then any big name driver is unlikely to gamble on a team that has a long way to go before they build themselves back to their former glories.
There are, however, few drivers who could fill the seats at the two teams. Current Jordan racer Giorgio Pantano will probably run out of money, test driver Timo Glock is also unlikely to have enough cash so Cristijan Albers, who will test with Jordan later this year, could take his support from Dutch bathroom company Wilux to join up with the team's current Dutch sponsors Trust.
Minardi driver Zsolt Baumgartner is also likely to only have cash for one season and Gianmaria Bruni will probably need to find funding to continue at the team. Belgian Bas Leinders is hanging around in the test seat while South African Formula 3000 driver Alan van der Merwe has had links with the team through the two-seater programme. But there will already be drivers with cheques queuing up.
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