ATLAS F1 - THE JOURNAL OF FORMULA ONE MOTORSPORT
A Question of Timing

By Richard Barnes, South Africa
Atlas F1 Magazine Writer



After the chaotic start to the season, at least as it applied to the form book and grid positions, Sunday's San Marino Grand Prix served to stabilise and define the season along the familiar battle lines - Ferrari and McLaren scrapping it out, with Williams relegated to envious onlookers. The race also served to showcase the most delicate nuances of timing that often sway entire Championships in F1.

More than any other circuit, Imola's legendary kerbs provide not just a stern challenge to mechanical grip and suspension components, but to the strategic minds that must unravel and update the constantly shifting equation of fuel load, tyre wear and track position. On each of the recent Grands Prix at Imola, pitstops have been crucial to the outcome. Running slightly longer on a stint, and using the extra laps to gain time on a freshly refuelled and heavier rival, is often the only way to get past at Imola. And nobody does it better than Ferrari.

Michael Schumacher used the tactic to snatch the lead (and the eventual win) away from Mika Hakkinen at the second round of stops in 2000. A year later, it was Schumacher's teammate, Rubens Barrichello, who pitted slightly later to displace Hakkinen from the podium. In 2002, Williams's Ralf Schumacher was the victim of Barrichello's longer stint. This year, Ross Brawn's tactical acumen prevailed once again, this time for the benefit of his star driver Michael Schumacher. But not before McLaren's 'fill it to the gunwales and let the race come back to us' ethos had almost contrived to once again propel Kimi Raikkonen from grid underachiever to surprise mid-race leader.

If the new qualifying format has boosted one aspect of Formula One racing immensely, it is the sense of intrigue that surrounds qualifying. Under the old 'four flat-out runs on empty tanks' qualifying format, the hardcore analysts had their answers about sheer pace verified immediately in absolutes, down to the third decimal point. Under the new rules, we must wait for the first round of pitstops before attaching significance to the qualifying times posted on Saturday. It may not be a purist's delight, but the new system has created a greater sense of the race weekend 'unfolding'.

In true Imola style, the halfway point found the race delicately balanced, with only the in-lap/pitstop/out-lap factors set to separate the victor from the bunched pack of nearly-rans. After a feisty opening stint that saw him resisting the best efforts of his pursuing older brother, Ralf Schumacher must have known that his chances had vanished at the first pitstop. With Michael unleashed on a near-empty fuel load, the inevitable blinding hotlap was enough to secure crucial track position and the win.

In terms of the season, the timing was also spot-on for Ferrari and Schumacher. Winning in front of the Italian fans, and right at the start of the European leg of the Championship, was vital in rejuvenating the Scuderia's challenge for both Championships. But where the timing had otherwise been perfect for Michael Schumacher's professional goals, the Schumacher brothers' tragic personal loss also made this the most difficult weekend of their respective careers.

As profoundly as the passing of Elisabeth Schumacher affected the whole race weekend and the wider F1 community, it is not within this writer's ambit to make public discussion of intensely private and personal grief. Suffice it to say, the two Schumachers turned up and put on a display of motor racing skill and dedication that would have made any mother proud. To its credit, the F1 establishment also waived its normally rigid procedures out of respect for the Schumacher brothers' loss. As obsessed as motor racing may be with matters mechanical, the sport remains an endeavour of the human spirit. Sunday's events provided a timely if tragic affirmation of that.

McLaren's rising Finnish star Kimi Raikkonen once again emerged from the race in better finishing shape than had seemed plausible. Critics of the Finn will doubtless credit his continued good fortunes, but Raikkonen has had his share of bad luck too. Without the pitlane speeding penalty in Australia and the reversed finish at Brazil, Raikkonen may well have extended an already healthy Championship lead even further.

To his credit, and in stark contrast to McLaren stablemate David Coulthard, Raikkonen seems totally unconcerned about discussing the 'what ifs'. Instead, the Finn simply gets on with it and leaves the exhaustive after-the-fact analysis of missed opportunities to those more willing and able to indulge themselves. His consistent ability to extract maximum points from each Championship opportunity, whatever his grid position, has earned him a deserved early Championship lead.

The new points setup is designed to reward such consistency, and Raikkonen is fulfilling the team's aims admirably. McLaren were never going to hold back the Ferrari charge indefinitely, Raikkonen's job is to ensure that Michael Schumacher gets no ten-point gifts to smooth the path to another record-setting title. If the Finn can restrict Schumacher to a slender two-point differential every time the German wins, as happened at Imola, Schumacher will be hard-pressed to overhaul the current 14-point Championship deficit.

The challenge of depriving Schumacher would be daunting for any driver, let alone one in just his third season at the highest level. Yet Raikkonen's challenge is legitimate, not least for the technical unknowns that lie ahead for the remainder of the season. The greatest of these unknowns is the relative strength of Ferrari's F2003-GA against McLaren's new MP4-18, and again timing is the key. Ferrari plan to debut the 2003 car at the next GP in Spain, McLaren could wait until the British Grand Prix in July to roll out their 2003 challenger.

Historically, that should play into Ferrari's hands. They have proven extremely adept at developing a car throughout the year, and the Spanish debut will give them three-quarters of the season to develop the car to its full potential. McLaren, by contrast, are prone to designing quirky machines that often prove unreliable for the first few races. It was a failing that cost Mika Hakkinen a third straight WDC triumph in 2000. If McLaren do wait as long as July, they will have a scant five races in which to sort out the new car before the season finale in Japan. The Woking engineers argue that it's precisely because of unreliability concerns that they have delayed the debut of the new car. Although, if the MP4-18 performs flawlessly during testing only to succumb to the mechanical stresses of genuine competition, it certainly won't be the first F1 design to do so.

If Ferrari's new F2003-GA is competitive and reliable out of the box, Raikkonen may find himself in the tense situation of having to adjust to a new design's teething problems at the very time that Ferrari and Schumacher are coming on strong and eroding if not obliterating his Championship advantage. On the other hand, any failures at all on the new Ferrari may put McLaren in the enviable position that Ferrari enjoyed with the F2002 last year - a healthy lead in both Championships, and able to afford the odd design teething problem.

Williams remain the dark horses, although it would take nothing short of design catastrophe from their two manufacturing rivals to bring the Grove-based outfit back into the reckoning for either Championship. Even if McLaren and Ferrari were forced to continue running their 2002 cars for the remainder of the season, they still look too fast and reliable for a dispirited Williams effort.

The lack of genuine competitiveness from the Williams should play to Raikkonen's advantage. Schumacher has been most fallible when faced with a lone stand-out rival - Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve, Mika Hakkinen - in a straight one-on-one duel for the WDC. As he demonstrated so brilliantly during 2001 and the early part of 2002, Schumacher excels in emerging from a tightly knit pack of multiple potential winners, using his relentless consistency to wear the others down over the course of the season.

Yet Raikkonen has displayed the same Schumacher-like ability to emerge from a competitive pack and make things happen for himself at just the right moment, to hang in and maximise points and let the opposition defeat itself over time. Already this is shaping up as a season in which the balance of missed opportunities, rather than any individual race heroics, will settle the WDC.

It's also a season in which the debut timing of the new cars from Ferrari and McLaren has added significance. One half of that equation will be addressed at Spain in two weeks time. Although, in keeping with the trends of a surprisingly competitive season, the F2003-GA's much awaited debut may well pose more questions than it answers.


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Volume 9, Issue 17
April 23rd 2003

Atlas F1 Exclusive

Stirred But Not Shaken
by Timothy Collings

The Arbitrationists
by Biranit Goren

Interview with Jean Alesi
by David Cameron

San Marino GP Review

2003 San Marino GP Review
by Pablo Elizalde

Requiem for a Lightweight
by Karl Ludvigsen

Ann Bradshaw: View from the Paddock
by Ann Bradshaw

A Question of Timing
by Richard Barnes

Stats Center

The Race in Action: San Marino
by Marcel Borsboom

Qualifying Differentials
by Marcel Borsboom

SuperStats
by David Wright

Charts Center
by Michele Lostia

Columns

Season Strokes
by Bruce Thomson

Elsewhere in Racing
by David Wright & Mark Alan Jones

The Weekly Grapevine
by Tom Keeble



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