This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: The Ferrari Gauntlet Goes Down Toyota on Target

The Ferrari Gauntlet Goes Down

Whilst anyone who has spent any time following the sport will tell you "testing times don't count," the hours teams spend keeping tabs on their rivals gives a solid hint at a different story.

Of course, they are not just working off the timesheets - for the most part, someone has been keeping tabs on what has been going on around the pits, noting how many problems the car appears to have suffered from, and when it comes out on new rubber, or returns to the pits after a single flying lap.

They are also all too aware of the tendency for performance to follow patterns, so hearing that Ferrari's new F2003-GA has, like its predecessor, comfortably broken the Fiorano track record on the first day of testing, even if it was running light, gives the impression that the car is already faster than its predecessor, and is still expected to see some eight weeks of development before making its debut when the circus returns to Europe. Worrying news for the competition.

Through the last season, outside qualifying, anyway, there was rarely an adequate indication of the full capabilities of the F2002. Having such a dominant package allowed the team to stay relatively well clear of performance margins. Being able to avoid using the last 250 (or more) rpm of the engine in the races was a key element of excellent reliability: it is the absolute limit that suffers the greatest internal forces - i.e., producing the most wear - and generating the greatest heat. Playing safe with larger than strictly necessary cooling ducts for the engine and brakes in hot races is always a good bonus, and of course, there's never any need to gamble on whether or not the car will run one last lap ahead of a pitstop, or run out of fuel.

Like last year, Williams have made a strong step forward, and they believe there will be circuits where they'll give at least the F2002 drivers a real run for their money. However, just like last year, if the competition's performance is too good, Ferrari have the option to fly out their new car, looking for performance at the risk of reduced reliability - though they would have to be expecting clean sweeps with the car, as the new points system rewards reliability so well.

On the other hand, signs and portents notwithstanding, the Championships are not a foregone conclusion. There is at least one team who believe that naming the car after Gianni Agnelli, not to mention labelling it 'the best Ferrari ever,' is reason enough to ensure this season is less successful than the last.

The form demonstrated by McLaren in early testing has already had Michael Schumacher looking over his shoulder. Not only do Michelin no longer have to compromise between Williams' and McLaren's requirements, but the whole rear end has been redesigned, optimising the synergy between the chassis and rubber. This partnership might not have the maturity of Ferrari and Bridgestone, but Michelin are smarting, and have been making huge steps forward over the off-season. That partnership, and those steps forward, are also benefiting Williams, of course, as the teams are sharing the tyre development workload.

Whilst, again, Bridgestone shod Ferrari are looking as hot favourites for the titles again, with Williams, McLaren and Michelin working so hard, these teams are looking forward to a somewhat different, and at least a closer season.

Toyota on Target

Before they started in Formula One, there was some scoffing at Toyota in the paddock. The car they built and tested for the year ahead of their entry to the series was woefully off the pace, and their decision to base the team in Germany flew in the face of the accepted form for success.

Then, arriving in Melbourne with a new, inexperienced team, and promptly qualified fourteenth, then scored a point. Whilst the team's (in-house) engine takes a lot of the credit for their performance, there is no denying the paddock's surprise that the marque made such an impact - and it was plain that the race team were learning, and fast, with each event. They made mistakes - some even costing points, which is something to boast about in an inaugural year - but usually seemed to have a solution the next time out.

Where Toyota really fell short last year, was their pace of development through the season - they just could not live with the way every other team were able to make noticeable progress at most events. Their own efforts produced only one really big step forward, and a handful of small increments. It moved them from four percent off the Ferrari pace, to only two and a half percent, but drifting back through the grid.

The slow development was not all due to inexperience. From fairly early in the season, it was apparent that whilst the chassis had some limitations, the aerodynamics offered the biggest problem. Rather than worrying too much about fixing the car, the decision was made to stick with the original game plan, treat 2002 as an exploratory year, work on identifying the issues properly and getting the 2003 challenger under way: Gustav Brunner would be involved in designing this one from the ground up.

Winter testing has revealed a few surprises. Firstly, the improvements to construction of Michelin's tyres are working well with the new chassis, improving mechanical grip in low speed corners and stability over bumps and curves. The new aero package is a big step forward too: one figure 'leaked' offered an efficiency improvement of fifteen percent over last year. If it's accurate, it is phenomenal - and accounts for the drivers' delight in testing the new car, even before doing any real set-up work.

Getting information on how the engine has moved on is proving tricky. Last season's unit was claimed to be one of the best in the series, but figures were sketchy and whilst respectable, varied considerably, depending whose 'inside line' was being offered. It's a similar story this year, but the competition (in this case, Williams) have been paying attention, and believe this engine's peak power is only around 25bhp short of BMW's engine, though the delivery is not as smooth, and either the low end torque or traction control, needs work.

In aiming to make a big jump up the grid, Toyota had to develop the whole package. What they're testing now demonstrates a huge leap forward, and the results look promising. Absolute testing mileage is good, largely because there have been relatively few reliability problems. The new drivers are settling in and performing, and the car is already about three seconds faster around Barcelona than it was last season.

Given such a solid step forward, it's no wonder that the board are expecting to score points consistently this year, and see a potential podium spot on the horizon.