This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: Money on Montoya? Mercedes Lighting a Fire

Money on Montoya?

Juan Pablo Montoya's dominance at the German Grand Prix, even before it was known that his throttle was limited to 93 percent, has led to the odds being shortened considerably on the Columbian taking the Drivers' Championship by the end of the year.

Even knowing that Ferrari have improvements to come through on the car, they are expected to do little more than help the team stay ahead of McLaren and Renault unless Bridgestone can close the apparent gap to Michelin: as it stands the Maranello-based outfit are significantly compromised in their ability to defend the championships.

Despite the results in Germany, Bridgestone do not seem to be especially concerned - it seems they believe their choices for that event were too conservative, handing Michelin a performance advantage. As it got hotter, the temperatures played towards Michelin strength, offering more grip to their relatively softer compounds. For the remaining races, Bridgestone have tested and already planned out the tyres they intend to use, and are happy that their strategy is going to work out.

At the time the program was set out, Ferrari tested a lot of rubber in the quest for improved performance, but the data is keyed to a preference for a slightly conservative approach that limits risk that the tyres wear badly. Adjusting the program to take less conservative tyres to future events is on the cards: depending on the temperatures, it should bring the difference between the manufacturers performances back to Silverstone levels.

Of course, if Bridgestone are mistaken again, then both championships will be wrapped up in the USA!

Mercedes Lighting a Fire

Since McLaren handed on the mantle to Williams as Ferrari's strongest challenger, things have been looking down at Mercedes: if there is one thing more frustrating than being stuck behind Ferrari, is being outpaced by a BMW-powered car. It has not helped that the public at large are being told by the media that the car with which McLaren is competing this season is "last year's" model, whilst the new one has failed to make it out of the starting blocks, despite being launched in May.

Of course, close followers of the sport - a surprisingly small percentage of the viewing public - appreciate that the MP4-17D is new in just about every regard, and hardly comparable with the car that started this season, let alone the one that ended last. Even through winter testing, it carried the back end being proposed for the new car, and development has been ongoing ever since. It puts it in to perspective that most teams 'new' cars have not made the progress McLaren managed by developing their old car.

Comparing the situation to that of BMW at Williams, Mercedes do have some room for complaint. The rival team started the season with a package that was off the pace, despite allegedly carrying the best engine on the grid, so Williams and their aerodynamics took the blame for being slow. The irony of Williams winning at Monaco was largely overlooked: it is the circuit that emphasises driver skill over the shortcomings of the package, especially any engine deficit. Little surprise that the noises BMW had been making about their future went quiet, and their agreement with Williams was extended to the end of the decade.

So, being tied to McLaren and the delayed introduction of the new car has cost Mercedes a lot of publicity. Their headline program is not only no longer providing the driving force behind the closest competition to Michael Schumacher and Ferrari, there is limited prospect of a turn around this season, despite the ongoing efforts to improve the engines: that leaves Mercedes looking at their options to prevent it happening again in future.

The 2004 program is now well under way, based on parameters set to account for some lessons learned from the season - particularly emphasising improved fuel consumption. If there is one thing learned from the Renault performance this year, it is that good fuel consumption can go a long way to making up for a power deficit. The reduced weight is also a big factor in the equation for reducing tyre wear. It also opens up a wider selection of strategies for the race, offering a choice between reduced weight or a longer first stint than the competition for Saturday qualifying.

On a different note, Mercedes are actively looking at the possibility of producing a stream of customer engines for next season. The options being discussed currently include a de-tuned version of the current engine, or a second string works engine - which obviously carries a very serious price tag. The only team that is currently being associated with the plan is Jordan, who are supposed to be trying to play Mercedes off against Ford, looking for maximum advantage. There has also been some mention of Peter Sauber being interested in getting back in to bed with Mercedes, but these rumours disappeared a while back: apparently, going from a well established customer deal with Ferrari to a new customer deal with Mercedes was not attractive. Apparently, the underlying reason for talks was based on the idea that Sauber would be running full works engines - the same as McLaren, give or take an evolution.

Mercedes are hoping a customer deal will give them three things - leverage when it comes to votes that go to the teams, as they will gain influence, income to support their development program, but more important than either, kudos as the outfit first prepared to really address the issue of providing a $10 million dollar engine program to the "disadvantaged" teams.