This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: Ferrari and Willams Plan for 2003 Silly Season Update

Ferrari and Willams Plan for 2003

At this stage of the year, all the front runners have set their goals for the next season's cars, and are embarking on making the targets achievable.

Central to Ferrari's plans, are a progressive evolution of the chassis, and an aggressive step forward in the engine. Anticipating most of the grid continuing to evolve their current engines, as a completely new unit will be required for 2004, Ferrari are aiming very high indeed, and want to start next season with 1000 bhp from a 90kg unit. Realistically, they would not be surprised or upset at falling 50bhp short of that target, but it is seen as the limit of achievability, and that is the important thing. In 2003, Ferrari do not want to hear about BMW's power superiority.

The rear bodywork is also due to some revisions, with the apparently modest target of a five percent improvement in efficiency. The front aerodynamics need a similar improvement to keep the balance of the car, whilst there is a lot of work to be done on the new gearbox too. Plans for the fuel tank to be enlarged are dependant on new, smaller components around the engines. Fuel efficiency is supposed to remain unchanged, but it is difficult to say whether that is a ballpark or absolute requirement of the new engine, or at which power ratings the comparisons should be made.

Williams are not looking to rest on their laurels either, and already seem to have dedicated a car to an entire winter of testing for Michelin. The chassis is due to undergo the usual evolution process ­ taking the old one, and retracing the design from scratch along the same lines, looking to improve each element in turn. Target setting has taken place with BMW, who they had hoped will decide to build another new engine. If they are, though, then it is happening very late in the day, so it is a fair bet that BMW expect to hit their targets without a new unit. For next season, absolute power is unspecified ­ which is a huge vote of confidence in the engineers. However, fuel consumption in 'lean' mode is to be improved by five percent, and internal mass reduced by one percent. Reliability needs to be brought up to Ferrari standards, aiming for a 90 percent finish rate, so the only other target is to try and keep the power curve smooth.

However, looking at the progress Ferrari have made since this time last year, Williams are all too aware that their chances of closing the gap are basically related to Michelin being better than Bridgestone over the balance of the season, or the Maranello outfit completely dropping the ball in the winter.

Silly Season Update

There's nothing like the prospect of two teams dropping out of the Championship to put the cat amongst the Silly Season pigeons. Arrows' continued struggle to iron out their difficulties with Morgan Grenfell puts the future of the team at stake immediately, whilst Jaguar really have to start showing progress with the new package or Ford is expected to look for an exit next year.

On the driver front, Alexander Wurz is expecting to be racing again next year, though he remains tight-lipped about the prospective team. There is a strong case for him moving to Toyota, helping the outfit develop their cars and infrastructure to match the McLaren approach, whilst Jaguar and Sauber are believed to be interested, if their other plans go awry. Similarly, Jos Verstappen's future could include a return to the fold with Sauber, though he is hoping things will continue to develop with Toyota following a tentative approach last month.

Heinz-Harald Frentzen is still hoping Arrows will keep it together, but he is in some demand if they don't. Toyota, again, appear on the list, whilst McLaren are believed to have made a tentative approach with a three-year testing contract to replace Wurz, in the event of his departure. Rumours that a return to Sauber could be on the cards appear to be wide of the mark, but there is speculation that in the event of Arrows being sold off, Tom Walkinshaw will keep Frentzen and Enrique Bernoldi to drive for a new outfit.

Over at Renault, negotiations over Jenson Button's future are looking interesting, with 'details' being leaked to the media that the Briton can only stay on if he takes a £3.5 million pay cut. On the other hand, he has an offer from Jaguar to play with, if he keeps his package under £5 million per year. Looking further ahead, Jarno Trulli has no need to move yet, as his contract lasts another year before anyone gets to play with options. However, he has had a feeler from Walkinshaw. Whether that is to drive for Arrows or another team, or to establish a route into testing, is not known.

Jaguar's drive forward is noticeably hampered by the outfit's inability to put together a decent car. Should France and Germany fail to demonstrate they are making progress, it is looking like it will be an outfit to avoid over the next couple of seasons. The most popular drivers in the running for seats next year are Mark Webber, Fernando Alonso, and Jenson Button. Webber and Button both come with great reputations for technical feedback (mind you, so did Eddie Irvine), and both are fast. Alonso's speed is not in doubt, though his ability to develop and set up a car are not especially recognised. Any two of these drivers would certainly give Jaguar a couple of chargers to make the most of their efforts, cost less than Irvine, and probably not compromise ­ or even improve ­ in season development, if they can persuade the drivers to take the seats.

Getting away from the drivers, the hunt for engines is continuing. Honda is still expected to drop support for Jordan next year, but there is increasing speculation that they will mitigate losses by bringing Mugen back in to the fold. Given Honda would be expected to foot a large part of the bill for whatever customer unit Jordan uses, it makes sense to keep it in the family, getting the 'customer' arm back up to speed. Better still, if they can bring another team on board, then it would go some way towards defraying the costs of building completely new engines in 2004.

Despite their ties to Ford, Minardi are not currently top favourites for the second customer Cosworth engines, so Jordan going the Mugen-Honda route would be good news for the outfit. The Cosworth deal is going to come down to pocket size, with a year's supply being put at £16 million for the year. If they had the money for it, though, a Ferrari deal identical to Sauber's is supposed to be negotiable at around £25 million for the year, a sum that would represent something over half the annual budget of the team. So it's a pretty good bet that they won't be doing that!