Formula One history is full of drivers who made the wrong choices and moved to the wrong team, in many cases effectively obliterating their F1 career. Karl Ludvigsen looks back at some of the past examples, and at some of the current drivers who might discover soon that they have made a bad decision for the 2002 season

At this time of year I find myself sympathizing with all the Formula One drivers who have made terrible choices for the coming season, choices that will set back their careers either briefly or permanently. Putting myself in their position, I have to admit it isn't easy. How, for instance, are you going to know just how well the team you've signed with is actually going to perform? You have to weigh all the factors involved and - with the help of your manager, these days - make a decision that will have a profound impact on your professional career, indeed potentially even your life.

It can happen to the best of drivers. I'm sure that when Michael Schumacher arrived at Ferrari for the 1996 season he found conditions there far less promising than he'd been led to believe. Fiat boss Gianni Agnelli said that by hiring Schumacher, Ferrari would know for sure that the car was at fault if they didn't perform well. How right he was. Schumacher became the yardstick for Ferrari's progress, first toward respectability - as Bobby Rahal might have said - and later toward success.

I've previously mentioned the selling job that Tom Walkinshaw did to get Damon Hill to join Arrows at a time when the team was far under even its current strength. And then next year Damon succumbed to that Irishman's blarney and closed out his career with a season that was dispiriting at best and degrading at worst. Damon's Williams teammate had the same experience when he was persuaded to throw in his lot with newcomers BAR. BAR, said Jacques, "could have been a similar type of thing [to Ferrari] the way it was being talked about when it started. But it went the wrong way." And it hasn't recovered since.

Even Emerson Fittipaldi was wise enough not to join his brother's team in its earliest years. He encouraged Wilson, but initially from his safe McLaren seat in 1975. He did later join his Copersucar team, of course, but only to endure the extinction of his Grand Prix career.

I'm reminded of Chris Amon, who made some duff driving choices in his day, as even he will admit. Having seen what Matra was doing, I was among those who encouraged him to join them, which he did to pretty good effect. But Chris's March adventure proved much less rewarding than those persuasive chaps, Messrs. Herd and Mosley, pictured it as likely to be.

I don't want to go too far back in history, but I can't forget the promises that Huschke von Hanstein made to Dan Gurney when he was persuading the Californian to join his team in 1961. "We'll have 200 horsepower from our new eight," he told Dan. When Gurney arrived in Stuttgart he found it was only producing 120!

And then of course Gurney was driving for the Brabham team in 1963 through 1965. "It got to the stage where I was looking forward to Dan's taking over the driving altogether," Brabham told me. "Unfortunately, at the end of 1965, he decided he was going to build his own car and drive it. Then of course we went on and won the Championship two years running, first with myself and then with Denny. Dan would have gone on and won the World Championship in our car, several times probably. It turned out all right for me, so I don't mind. I often remind Dan now, of course!"

So who do I think has been snowed into staying aboard and/or joining their teams for 2002? First on the list must be Mika Salo, who showed with Ferrari that he can race with the best. Toyota 2002 will be a huge disappointment for him. I think the same is true of that talented racer Giancarlo Fisichella. Jordan has a knack for plateauing, just not making it past a certain level. I can't see how that's likely to change.

Olivier Panis probably feels he has a good drive at BAR, but he should and could do a lot better. If I were Williams I would be looking at Panis for the near future. And I'm sure Rubens Barrichello feels he's doing the right thing by staying with Ferrari, but he too would do better if he were leading a team, as he showed at Stewart Grand Prix.

There's talk aplenty at this time of year, and I'm afraid that's about all we will have until the testing ban ends. But soon thereafter we'll find out who walks the talk - and which drivers have seen past the boasts of the team chiefs to the substance - or lack of it - of Formula One's glossy racing outfits.