This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: Evolution, not Revolution? Ferrari's second string

Evolution, not revolution?

As we are at what is, arguably, the most exciting part of the season for speculating over the future potential of teams, it's no surprise to hear all sorts of rumours about how teams are progressing with their 2002 challengers.

Despite finishing solidly on top in 2001, Ferrari are now expected to have something very special for next year. Initial rumours of an integrated engine and gearbox continue to gain strength, along with noise of a significant improvement to the aerodynamics. Looking into this a little harder, and it's clear to see why there are also rumours that next year's car is going to be an evolution of the 2001 challenger, or that Ferrari would even start the season with last year's beast.

Integrating the engine and gearbox holds some serious challenges. In this case, it appears the route is through eliminating the current clutch mechanism, relying instead on software to match revs for changing gear. Though none of the rumours make mention of how the engine will engage from neutral into first gear, which is the only really complicated part of the process. Apart from the nanometer accurate precision construction of the gears, of course. And the fact that a single flawed tooth would cause the gear to fail.

And then, of course, there's access to the gearing. Just a handful of years ago, one of the most important elements of setting up a car was getting the gearing right, and drivers would regularly ask for a change between sessions. It's not a nice job, but fifteen minutes was about the longest it took to drop the gearbox off the car, extract the gears, change them over and reverse the process. However, these days the computer simulation of circuits is so good, teams turn up with the right gears in place, and it is rare to make any changes. So, if Ferrari's fully integrated approach denies direct access to the gearbox, necessitating an engine change to adjust the gearing, then a full engine change is in order.

Of course, that's another area where the team benefit. A full engine and gearbox change can be brought down from a flat out 45 minutes by more than five minutes.

Given the complexity of manufacturing this type of solution, a backup plan is only wise: and Ferrari have the resources to keep two development programs in operation.

All gains being made with the construction of the monocoque, systems (brakes, mainly) and electronics are being applied to the old car, along with an aerodynamic evolution to maintain the balance. Apparently, significant gains have been made with the sidepods, despite being reconstructed in line with 2002's more stringent safety requirements, offering improved downforce from the middle of the car, but requiring a revision to the air flow from the front wing to gain maximum effect.

So, with an affective backup plan in place (give or take: testing the changes provide the same results on track as in the wind-tunnel, and their extra supply of 2001 spec engines is not a problem), Ferrari can leave it very late to reveal their new challenger, working long and hard in the wind-tunnel to maximise development, and minimise the reaction time available to the other teams to copy their innovations. Most parts can be tested on hybrid versions of the old car.

And if the revolution fails, well, then evolution might just be enough to get the job done.

Ferrari's Second String

Despite Prost's reprieve by the French court, permitting them to operate until the middle of next year under the watchful eye of the receiver, there is plenty of talk about what should happen to the highly desirable Ferrari engines, should the manufacturer default.

There's a lot more to this than immediately meets the eye. First, none of the teams want Prost to fail: if they drop out, then the vacant slot on the grid makes all the teams less valuable, as it is far cheaper to buy the vacancy than it would be to buy a team - even one in as difficult a position as Prost GP. Even more so, Bernie Ecclestone doesn't want a gap on the grid; it's bad for business. Despite its miserable performance over the last couple of years, the Prost team is a respectable crowd puller of French-speaking audience. More to the point, it could be used to show that Formula One is not the booming business that Ecclestone likes to claim when positioning it to TV audiences.

Accordingly, it is no surprise to hear the rumble on the grapevine telling a tale of intervention: Ecclestone had a polite conversation with Ferrari about the benefits of providing engines at cost, being flexible on payment deadlines, and generally operating as a benevolent benefactor all round.

That's not, really, the sort of thing Ferrari want to hear. Technically, they can supply Prost with 2001 spec engines for around six million dollars. That's the raw cost of building, testing, shipping, running, stripping and testing the units over a year. But it goes nowhere towards recovering the cost of developing the engines, purchasing the original hardware required to build them to Formula One tolerance, or contributing towards offsetting the 2002 budget.

Of course, that's not particularly good for Ferrari business; especially when Sauber are forking out over twenty million for a similar deal. With the world slowdown, it's pretty tough to explain to anyone why they are paying four times the rate for the same gear.

Never one to let an opportunity skip by, Paul Stoddart has been jumped at a chance to transform the Minardi team's future: on the back of the Bernie intervention rumours, is the speculation that Minardi are lining up the engines for themselves, offering to pick up the difference between Prost's payment and the full cost of the units. Then, they would palm their AMT engines off on Prost, which should make Ferrari far happier.

However, the AMT deal with Minardi is already signed for next year, and they are not expected to play ball: Minardi have a far better image than Prost, as things stand, and besides, the engineers remember working with the team all too well under the guise of Peugeot. That aside, picking up the units for next season seems like a practical impossibility, as Prost have made a significant down-payment already, which should guarantee they at least start the season with the Ferrari units. In this case, it seems more likely the rumours reflect machinations relating to 2003, and Minardi relieving Prost of their Ferrari deal without involving expensive legal wrangles.