Saturday October 30th, 1999
Down to the Wire
Qualifying analysis, by Michele Lupini
If tomorrow's Japanese Grand Prix ends in the order the grid lines up, Eddie Irvine and Mika Hakkinen will have even points - with the same amount of wins each. But as they both have two seconds as it currently stands, Mika will become champion by virtue of having scored an extra second position, while Ferrari would be constructors' champions.
That is but one parameter that can come into play and indicates just how close the 1999 World F1 Championship has panned out to be, providing one of the most intriguing grandstand finishes in all time. But both title protagonists had a less than ideal qualifying session at Suzuka today.
Hakkinen started well, matching Michael Schumacher's provisional pole exactly, before edging into a slender five hundredth's pole after the pair's second stints. But when Michael went into a strong 3-tenths pole and Mika went out to chase that time, he became involved in an incident with Jean Alesi.
Jean was ending a fast lap and found a slow Hakkinen in the chicane. The Sicilian skipped the chicane to spin past Hakkinen as Mika was heading onto his final run. "The incident was unfortunate, but things like that happen and I don't think it was anybody's fault," Mika admitted in his usually straight manner afterward.
Mika avoided contacting the Sauber but ended in the sand trap before heading off on what appeared a remarkably fast lap on dirty rubber, behind Irvine, aborting it, likely at the news of Frentzen's late fourth. "I am disappointed that I'm not on pole, especially as I think I could have gone quicker on my last lap," Mika said. "We have improved the car and it's feeling good. It's particularly consistent which I think will be really good for us in the race tomorrow."
Irvine, on the other hand, had a lackluster run, getting into an early fourth behind David Coulthard. But despite a good-looking first sector in his third run, the Ulsterman got it all wrong under braking and crashed the Ferrari heavily.
"Just before my accident, we had made a major change to the front end of the car which was a big improvement," Eddie admitted, "But it made the car more nervous and I lost the back end and crashed. My neck might be a bit stiff but it's not going to be a problem tomorrow."
He hitched a ride back to the pits in the doctor's wagon, to fetch his spare car, but was also a victim of Alesi's shambles, arriving at the chicane with incident in progress. He continued on a second lap, but could not improve, while Heinz-Harald Frentzen did, enough to drop Eddie to fifth and the third row.
But Irvine found some use out of that run in the mule. "It was useful to use the spare as we learned something which we can use tomorrow to improve the car," Eddie confirmed later.
Coulthard, in third, is looking forward to the race: "It doesn't mean that we will be in the same order when we come out of the first corner," he said. " Hopefully we will be reliable and hopefully get the result that we are focusing on."
"I am pleased with fourth place, but I do not want to be involved in the Championship fight," said Frentzen later. "I just want to finish as high up as I can - David my contender in this race and I will be aiming to win as many points as possible - it should be very exciting." The Frentzen/Coulthard duel is another intriguing battle that will be resolved tomorrow…
The rest of the field was strung out behind the top five, with Olivier Panis slipping onto the third row almost unnoticed behind the qualifying action up front for his last race. His Prost Peugeot teammate, Jarno Trulli was next up, from a continued on-form Johnny Herbert in the Stewart-Ford's last race, Ralf Schumacher's Williams and Alesi managing tenth - despite disrupting the session.
Then came Villeneuve, Hill - in his last-ever qualifying session as a driver, Barrichello, Fisichella, Wurz, Zanardi, Diniz, Zonta and local hero, Takagi leading the usual suspects out back.
But it's up front where all the action is, and where much of the world's focus will be tomorrow. And the result will be anyone's bet.
Commenting on his qualifying performance, pole man Schumacher said: "This is further confirmation of the high performance level of our car at the moment. We made some progress this morning and improved even more this afternoon."
Schumacher can probably help his teammate best by winning the race. But will he simply storm off into the distance in a straight fight with Hakkinen, or will he attempt to concertina the top runners to keep his teammate in touch for another Ferrari tactical masterstroke?
"We have to look at what is the best way to help Eddie for tomorrow," Schumacher went on, "because we are working as a team. Eddie can be sure he will have everything available. The best thing I can do to help him and the team is to win the race and the constructors' championship for Ferrari."
Mika Hakkinen has to go for broke. A win will win him his second world championship on the trot. But he has to deal with Michael Schumacher first, so the battle to win will be supreme, between Hakkinen, who has everything to lose, and Schumacher, who has nothing to lose.
Irvine needs only fourth to win the title if Hakkinen is second, but he too has problems in Frentzen, although in race trim, the Jordan hasn't matched the Ferrari from this position on the grid so far this season. "Being on the third row is not ideal, but it is by no means a disaster. At least I am on the clean side of the track," concluded Irvine, who has the distinction of winning two of his three races so far from the third row – sixth in Australia and fifth in Germany…
But, as they say in typical racing parlance, it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings, and boy, is she gonna yell tomorrow.
The 1999 FIA Formula One World Championship stands poised on the tightest of edges, set to go town in perhaps the most intriguing tactical battles the sport has ever witnessed.