Grand Prix of Luxembourg Preview
Nurburgring, Bonn, Germany 25th - 27th September 1998	by Ian Burley, England

With just two Grand Prix left this year, including this weekend's at the Nurburgring in Germany, the drivers' Championship score is perfectly poised with Mika Hakkinen and Michael Schumacher tied on 80 points apiece. The bare arithmetic gives the Finn a theoretical chance of wrapping it all up this weekend should he win while Schumacher fails to score. This is because should the scores end up tied at the end of the last race in Suzuka, Hakkinen's better record of second places will secure the title. The irony is that Hakkinen can win the Championship on Schumacher's home soil, but Schumacher must wait until Suzuka if he is to pip Hakkinen to the post. Quite simply, both drivers must go all out to beat the other this Sunday and, if possible, by a good points margin. Defensive strategy is no longer an option. But who has the momentum to come out on top this weekend? For Schumacher, already twice the champion and once, ignoring his subsequent disqualification last year, runner up, it's a familiar situation. Last year prior to the Nurburgring race, the scores only separated Jacques Villeneuve and Schumacher by a single point, with the advantage in favour of the German. The big difference was that Schumacher was in the position Hakkinen finds himself today - the Championship leader on the slide. For Hakkinen, this is completely new territory - his best Formula One Championship finish to date had been 4th back in 1994. Schumacher lost his fight for the Championship last year, but knows what it's like to triumph over this kind of adversity in the past. This weekend, we will find out for the first time whether or not Hakkinen, too, has what it takes to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. On the face of it, Schumacher is in the ascendance and he knows it. "Of the last three races of the season I was most worried about Monza," said the German, "as I didn't think we had the most competitive car at that track, but things could not have turned out better." When asked about the Nurburgring, Schumacher added: "I do not see why we shouldn't be very competitive there. The Ferrari has shown to work very well in similar circuits and I expect to be somewhere near the front. Everybody at Ferrari is working incredibly hard and remaining focused on the job until the last race is over, but there are always some factors you cannot control." Hakkinen, on the other hand, consistently maintains an optimistic and calm face on things, but the cracks are beginning to show. "I have to admit," said the Finn, "I am nervous about the situation at the moment. We're having mechanical problems just a little bit too often this year." Yet Hakkinen can still see a positive side of things: "Reliability is something you cannot worry about at the end of the day," he said. "You let other people do that. If things go for you, they go for you. If they don't, they don't. But we still have the best car. The reason why I say that with confidence is because you only have to look at David's performance in the race before his engine blew. He was pulling away well because his car was in good trim." As if to convince himself, Hakkinen declared: "I know I can still win the Championship. Of course I can, because there are still two races to go and 20 points at stake." The Nurburgring should be a re-assuring place for Hakkinen - he knows he can do well there; last year at the Nurburgring he achieved his first ever Grand Prix pole position and lead most of the race until his Mercedes V10 let him down. Car unreliability and racing mis-haps have ruined many a race for Hakkinen this year as well. What has been ruin to Hakkinen has been welcome hope and success to Schumacher. However, although the Nurburgring is technically a 'home' venue for Schumacher, he has only won there once before and last year's race was a complete disaster after he qualified poorly and his brother, Ralf, crashed into him on the first lap. More so, McLaren have the quickest car and only unpredictable conditions during the qualifying hour have prevented a McLaren being on the front row. But as the season unfolded it has become less obvious that McLaren will dominate the race itself. After all, McLaren has been without a win since Germany. Problems with gearboxes, engines, suspension and lately brakes, have all hampered the McLarens to varying degrees this year. The two most competitive teams in terms of points scored since Silverstone back in July have been Ferrari and Jordan. Despite their undoubted pace, McLaren have been making a dog's breakfast of the races. At Monza two weeks ago McLaren was expected to re-establish itself at a circuit which suited their car ideally. But no - McLaren briefly showed their pace and then their race promptly disintegrated through mechanical maladies. Meanwhile, Schumacher and Ferrari, helped by clever tactics and a titanic effort to hammer the F300 into a McLaren-beater, have been getting better and better, spurred on by McLaren's faltering campaign. Ferrari are bringing their short wheelbase F300 this weekend, which is thought to be better suited to the tighter nature of the Nurburgring. Neither McLaren, nor Ferrari tested at the same venues as each other last week, so it's not easy to compare their progress. McLaren spent the week at Magny Cours and eyebrows were raised when test driver Ricardo Zonta pulled off a remarkable lap almost half a second faster than David Coulthard and 0.6 seconds faster than the next man, another test driver - Juan Pablo Montoya in the Williams. Ferrari, meanwhile, had two test teams - one at their private Fiorano test track and one at Mugello. Despite a largely wasted day at Mugello due to rain, Irvine and Schumacher managed some 300-odd laps. Schumacher teased the assembled press, with the statement: "We have worked on aerodynamics, set-up, tyres and something else..." So who might be able to join in the Ferrari and McLaren party? Jordan is on the brink of over-hauling Benetton and Williams. Jordan's Ralf Schumacher, now confirmed with Williams next season, can get back to thinking about motor racing instead of contracts, though he will be less familiar with the latest modifications to the car which were tested by Hill last week. Jordan's technical director, Mike Gascoyne, says the Buzzin' Hornets will have further tweaks to the side pod aerodynamics, plus new front wing end-plates. Jordan's test times at Magny Cours were inconclusive, but the team and Hill, especially, remain confident that another podium could be on the cards. As both Williams' current drivers are leaving at the end of the season, neither were invited to take part in the tests last week. This won't help Williams' fight to hang onto third place in the Constructors race. That said, Montoya and his test team-mate, Max Wilson, produced some impressive times, though exactly how their work might impact on this weekend's race was unclear, as Williams senior operations engineer, James Robinson, explained: "It is important for us to continue developing the FW20 in order for us to retain our third position in the Constructors Championship, but at the same time we are working on longer term development items for the FW21." Benetton is the other team which started the season so well only to falter in the second half of the year. There is little evidence that Alexander Wurz or Giancarlo Fisichella will have much to cheer about at the Nurburgring. The team points to its Bridgestone tyres as one source of their woes, but their favoured wider front specification tyre will once more be available for this weekend, while some fiddling with the aerodynamics might help stop the rot. Jean Alesi has been doing impressive things with the Sauber on the faster circuits so it will be interesting to see if Sauber's mid-term improvement is maintained at the higher-downforce Nurburgring. Johnny Herbert will be checking the footwell of his Sauber's cockpit for unwanted tools before strapping in this weekend, but on a more serious note it looks like the cheerful Englishman will have to take another back seat to Alesi. The Prost team probably aren't looking forward to the Nurburgring too much - their car's handling and gearbox problems will be exposed much more than at the recent quick circuits. In the mean time, Olivier Panis seems to be a bit fazed by the often superior speed of his team mate, Jarno Trulli. Stewart fans will need more patience. The team confirmed that it had largely written off this season by choosing not to go testing last week, so it will be a tall order for either Rubens Barrichello or Jos Verstappen to make a mark this weekend. Arrows didn't test either, but both Mika Salo and Pedro Diniz say they are looking forward to the Nurburgring as the circuit will better suit their nimble but under-powered car. The Nurburgring is another new circuit for Tora Takagi to learn, but as Tyrrell winds inexorably down to make way for the new BAR marque next year, inevitably they will be less competitive - which is bad news for Tyrrell No.2, Ricardo Rosset. Finally, Minardi - another team which stayed at home last week, preferring to work on next year's contender. At least Esteban Tuero and Shinji Nakano will be well rested after their fortnight off. The weather has been particularly recalcitrant during race weekends this year. Call it Fall or Autumn, whatever, the unusually wet weather which has marked this year's summer in Europe is more than likely to pay a visit the Nurburgring. Undoubtedly, Schumacher will relish damp conditions more than Hakkinen. When you look at the trend over the last few races and the record of Schumacher in previous years, logically it's Schumacher who goes into this weekend's race as the favourite. But a more seasoned Formula One fan might be happier with the conclusion that it's too close to call. If McLaren can get it right for once, they can win at the Nurburgring as impressively as Ferrari did at Monza. If they can do just that and Schumacher's Ferrari fails him, Finland can add a second Grand Prix champion, alongside Keke Rosberg in 1982, to their long list of illustrious World Rally Champions. But Formula One supremo, Bernie Ecclestone, would much rather the title decider was Suzuka and somehow, he usually gets what he wants.

Ian Burley	© 1998 Atlas Formula One Journal.
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