Grand Prix of Japan Preview
Suzuka Circuit, Mie-Ken, Japan October 30th - November 1st 1998	by Ian Burley, England

The suspense and the tension are almost over. This Sunday the champion will be crowned. It seems an age ago when the two McLaren Mercedes of David Coulthard and Mika Hakkinen crushed the competition in an almost embarrassing manner in Melbourne, Australia at the beginning of the season. Then, the argument was over which of the two would McLaren boss, Ron Dennis, allow the privilege of taking the title. This weekend, those concerns will be an irrelevance. After the Italian Grand Prix, the season was back to square one, the two leading protagonists tied on points with just two races to run - but this time the fight is between one McLaren racer, Hakkinen rather than Coulthard and the perennial Michael Schumacher for Ferrari. This weekend, the flying Finn stands on the verge of the championship with two crucial advantages over his German rival. Hakkinen has a four point lead and one more race win than Schumacher as they go to the final race in Japan. Incidentally, McLaren needs just one more point to secure the constructors championship. The arithmetic goes like this: Hakkinen must ensure he loses no more than four points to Schumacher. This means the Finn is champion should he win or come second, no matter where Schumacher finishes. Second place is good enough for Hakkinen even if Schumacher wins because although he may find himself tied with Schumacher on 96 points and 7 wins apiece, Hakkinen will have the luxury of an extra second place - 3 to 2 seconds in this instance. Schumacher can tie the scores on 90 points each by finishing third and Hakkinen not scoring at all, but Hakkinen will have that crucial extra win in hand. So Schumacher's task is very clear - he must win with Hakkinen finishing no higher than third or he can finish second with Hakkinen not scoring any more than a single point in sixth place. For Schumacher, anything lower than second place means the title is Hakkinen's. Hakkinen: 1st - Champion 2nd - Champion 3rd - Champion if Schumacher doesn't win race 4th - Champion if Schumacher doesn't win race 5th - Champion if Schumacher doesn't win race 6th - Champion if Schumacher finishes no higher than third 7th or lower - Champion if Schumacher finishes no higher than third Schumacher: 1st - Champion if Hakkinen finishes no higher than third 2nd - Champion if Hakkinen finishes no higher than sixth 3rd or lower - Hakkinen is champion If sheer effort were to be the decider, Ferrari would undoubtedly propel Schumacher to his third championship. The team has been undergoing an exhaustive test programme, at Ferrari's private test tracks, Fiorano and Mugello. Reports indicate that only the fading of the light at the end of the day has seemed to limit the team's enthusiasm to run further laps. Ferrari also worked with Goodyear at Mugello on wet weather tyre development, flooding the circuit with 700,000 litres of water. Although it hasn't rained at a Japanese Grand Prix for a few years, in the last few days the area of Suzuka has seen rain pouring down almost non-stop which means that a wet weather race is a distinct possibility. Last year, Ferrari sprung a technical surprise at Suzuka with a flexible front wing - which was subsequently banned for the 1998 season, but a year ago the Ferraris were unbeatable at the magnificent Japanese circuit. This year, we are told that Ferrari will have another 20 horse power for qualifying at least, which makes the Ferrari V10 the first 3 litre non-turbo motor to develop over 800bhp. Ferrari has benefited from unrivalled reliability this year - Schumacher's only mechanical failure being at the opening race of the season. Squeezing out an extra 20 horsepower is some achievement when you consider how highly stressed these engines are in the first place. The reliability envelope at Ferrari will be tested as never before. Yet we've seen this all before - prior to the Luxembourg Grand Prix five weeks ago Ferrari tested until the cows came home but Hakkinen won for McLaren in convincing style. McLaren haven't exactly been twiddling their thumbs, either. Like Ferrari, McLaren have been testing at two different venues - Silverstone and Barcelona. With McLaren, the emphasis has been on reliability - McLaren's Achilles heel this year, plus tyre testing with Bridgestone. The Japanese tyre giant is putting in a huge effort to find the best compound and construction for McLaren. Last year, Bridgestone's best result was second place with Damon Hill's Arrows in Hungary but now, little more than a year on second place, in the drivers championship not least, is unacceptable. The supporting cast aren't necessarily quite as removed from the centre-stage as might be expected. Williams, Benetton and Jordan are all involved in a close fight for third place in the constructors championship. Despite using mainly test drivers over the last few weeks, Williams' recent return to form continues to strengthen. Reigning world champion he may be for just a few more days, but Jacques Villeneuve has unfinished business at Suzuka. It's the last time the Canadian will drive a Williams and the two times he has visited Suzuka for a Grand Prix, his race has ended in disaster. In 1996, with a minute chance of stealing the championship in his rookie year, Villeneuve suffered a lost wheel and twelve months later he was the victim of a combination of Ferrari team tactics and eventual disqualification for passing under yellow. It would be ironic if Villeneuve played a direct role in the outcome of this year's championship after he survived that infamous clash with Schumacher at the final race in Jerez last year. Villeneuve has gone well in recent races and would undoubtedly like to end his championship reign with a bang rather than a whimper. We all hope the 'bang' will be more metaphorical than literal of course. And we mustn't forget that Heinz Harald Frentzen secured the lap record in Suzuka last year. Some think Benetton could benefit from the Bridgestone/McLaren push, but insiders - still reeling from the recent resignation of team boss Dave Richards - have been quick to blame Bridgestone tyres designed for McLaren for their performance woes. Alexander Wurz hasn't raced F1 in Suzuka before and Giancarlo Fisichella will be hoping to use his superior knowledge to find a two point advantage in order to finish the season in front of his Austrian team mate. Quiet confidence can be found at the Jordan team. Ralf Schumacher ends his two year alliance with the team before departing for Williams and can still overhaul team mate Damon Hill in the championship. Hill, on the other hand, is keen to make up for a poor outing in the Luxembourg race. Mugen Honda, like Ferrari, has come up with a special evolution engine for Suzuka and the word is that the Mugen Honda V10 is now up there with the Mercedes and Ferrari V10s in terms of power. The Jordan chassis has been transformed in recent months and Hill went on record saying that the team ought to be aiming for a race win in Suzuka. Talk like this will only serve to worry the tacticians at McLaren and Ferrari. Should a third party indulge in challenging for the lead, all sorts of careful calculations and permutations will be rendered useless. Meanwhile, the leading number twos, David Coulthard and Eddie Irvine will have their parts to play. Indeed, last year Ferrari lead the way with imaginative team tactics which saw Irvine dictate the pace for the first half of the race. Irvine usually goes spectacularly well at Suzuka and will be a primary weapon in the battle to win Schumacher the crown. Schumacher himself is outwardly relaxed and scotched rumours that he was annoyed with his teammate for not standing up to Hakkinen more effectively in the Luxembourg race by openly considering the possibility of giving Irvine his debut win in Suzuka if Hakkinen went out. Of course, Coulthard could win the championship for team mate Hakkinen by keeping Schumacher off the top step of the podium. That would finish a job he started at the first race back in Australia when the Scot shocked everyone by giving up his lead position to Hakkinen, thus keeping to a secret pre-race agreement. If Schumacher can be generous in success to Irvine, so can Hakkinen - he certainly owes it to Coulthard. As for basic tactics - Suzuka is a long and abrasive circuit. Two stops are usual here, but three could be on the cards as the teams fight for track position and avoid traffic. It's unlikely that a winner will come from outside the top five teams, but you can never discount Jean Alesi, who has a special affinity with Japan through his Japanese wife, Kumiko Goto. In recent weeks Alesi and Sauber have been testing alongside Ferrari, who supply Sauber's Petronas-branded engines and the lap times have been respectable. Barrichello has been setting impressive times in his Stewart Ford during tests at Silverstone and it will be the final race with Stewart for the popular Dutchman, Jos Verstappen. Ford's 1998 Zetec-R V10 has been pretty unreliable this year, but Ford constantly remind us that the engine is a mere baby which was born a scant ten months ago. Reliability and power are now said to be fine after recent testing. The Prost team, meanwhile, have much renewed optimism regarding their new B-spec AP01 car which has a completely redesigned gearbox and ancillaries. The car has shown so much potential that the team decided to take what is really an experiment on wheels to Suzuka. Only one car has been built and both Jarno Trulli and Olivier Panis had to draw lots to decide who would drive the car - with Trulli ending up with the big smile. Arrows is a team in turmoil. Hardly any testing has been done since Luxembourg, the team has no technical director, finances are shaky and their in-house engine remains the least effective on the grid bar none. Popularly regarded as the prettiest car in F1 today, the Arrows of Mika Salo and Pedro Diniz are, nevertheless, unlikely to fare well this weekend. However, both Salo and Diniz say their car felt good at their one and only test last week. Their main competition will be tail-end charlies, Minardi and Tyrrell. For the Italian team, most of the focus is now on the 1999 car, but Shinji Nakano will be racing at home on familiar territory - quite the opposite of his young Argentinean teammate, Esteban Tuero. It's a very sad race for the Tyrrell team. Suzuka will be the marque's 451st (not including the Matra team run by Ken Tyrrell in 1969) and final race since their official debut in 1970, making way for the new BAR team next year. Few recall that Ken Tyrrell's fledgling team won its one and only constructors championship in only its second year. Better known is the fact that Jackie Stewart won two of his three titles with Tyrrell in 1971 and 1973. The team won 23 races in its 28 years, but is unlikely to improve that record this weekend, even with the undoubted speed of new local hero, Tora Takagi. Tyrrell's F1 swan song could also be that of Takagi's team mate, Ricardo Rosset, who has proved that money and success in F3000 don't automatically equate to more of the same in F1. This is the third year in a row in which we have been treated to a fight to the finish. On paper, Mika Hakkinen has the edge - especially after his cool and masterful performance under intense pressure at the Luxembourg Grand Prix five weeks ago. Yes, Schumacher has been there and done it before but last year he lost at the last hurdle in a straight fight and he lost badly to Jacques Villeneuve. Then again, Hakkinen has it all to lose and Schumacher all to gain. Whatever, Hakkinen has shown that his lack of experience at this level isn't necessarily a problem. Perhaps Schumacher's recently found experience of his own fallibility at the hands of both Villeneuve a year ago and more recently, Hakkinen at the Nurburgring five weeks ago, will prove to be the deciding factor. We'll find out on Sunday.

Ian Burley	© 1998 Atlas Formula One Journal.
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