Down to the Wire
	by James Alexander, Australia

We're down to the final round and four points separate the antagonists. It's going to be close. The above comment sums up the finale to a degree. Two drivers, two teams, one race, four points. It has come down to the wire in a season where expectations have not been fulfilled and we've had another very close title race instead. Last year, it was Williams and Ferrari. This year, it's the latter and McLaren. In a year where we saw cars narrower than F3 cars and grooves in our tyres, the racing has been surprisingly close after the first two rounds. Usually with such a dramatic rule change, one team would have all their figures and equations correct and have a significant advantage. It certainly looked that way in Melbourne and at Interlagos, with the McLarens storming away with the two victories, practically lapping the entire field. Instead of romping away with the constructor's title and the driver's championship being an intra-team affair (a la Williams 1996), we've had another nail biting finish (a la 1994 and 1997). Unusually, the beginning of the 1997 and 1998 seasons bear some resemblance. In both there was a team with a significant advantage and the team suffers a mid-season slump, allowing the other teams to catch up, significantly Ferrari. Ferrari have made it their goal to win the championship this year, and after a disastrous start in Melbourne, the team has not really looked back. Out of all the teams, their reliability has been astounding, and their drivers have had the knack to keep the car on the road 95% of the time. The team has consistently made progress throughout the year and caught up to McLaren. This was significantly evident at Magny-Cours, where the McLarens could not find a way past the Ferraris especially around the back half of the course. While that track is not suited to passing in general, the relative advantage that had been gifted to McLaren in the first seven rounds was under pressure in France. However, Ferrari would not be in a position where it is without McLaren's unreliability and Michael Schumacher. Only in France, Hungary and Italy have the Italian team outraced McLaren. In every other case, McLaren have proven themselves the class act of 1998, although Ferrari must get the award for most improved over the course of the season. Once again, Schumacher has proven himself the king of the wet, although his Silverstone victory was surrounded in acrimony and he nerved himself out of a convincing Spa victory. One of the largest factors in this year's battle has been the rubber, as the top four teams have been split into the Goodyear and Bridgestone factions. At the beginning of the season, the Bridgestones seemed to have the wood on the Goodyear. As the season continued, Goodyear made impressive strides into the Bridgestone advantage, and Goodyear was definitely on par by Canada. At Suzuka, five weeks after McLaren's win in Luxembourg, Ferrari have it all to do, and with an intensive rehearsal schedule (as you could call it), they have tried to squeeze as much performance out of the car as they can. McLaren know they have the psychological and realistic advantage, after a brilliant race stratagem which squeezed the maximum performance out of the car at the Nurburgring. Another factor is the Schumacher Under Pressure one. In the other two close battles that he has had in a championship, he has been leading the championship and was able to turf off the opposition in order to claim his prize (supposedly). However, this year he is in the position of the follower into the final round, with four points between him and Hakkinen. He has to hope that McLaren falter for a championship to be gifted to him, or give the drive of his life. We must not concentrate on the top two positions for 1998 however, as three teams fight for the bronze place in the constructor's championship. Originally it was to be between Williams and Benetton. However, Jordan has emphasised its point with an opportunistic victory in Spa and a number of strong podium finishes in the latter half of the year. The battle between Jordan, Williams and Benetton is very close, with any of the three teams capable of taking the third place outright. All three have worked extremely hard on developing their chassis, while Mecachrome and Mugen have been frantically attempting to draw more power out of their engines. It will be a battle between the Mecachrome and the Mugen plants down the main straight along with the chassis. While Suzuka has only been the final round of the season for two years, the Japanese track is always the scene of some brilliant races, whether it be wet or dry. Mansell had an enormous off here in 1987 which gifted the championship to Piquet. In 1988, Senna secured his first championship with a brilliant drive after a major starting error. In 1994, Hill and Schumacher had a brilliant battle on a soaking wet track, and once again in 1995 Schumacher showed his brilliance in the wet. Hill finally secured his first championship with a win over Villeneuve in 1996, and 1997's race was a brilliant show of teamwork. The drivers find the track absorbing and the TV cameras always capture the track at its very best, with the undulations that are only reminiscent at Spa and possible Interlagos, although that never appears on the television. All in all, however, it comes down to the Championship battle, between a first-time contender and a double World Champion. Schumacher knows what he must do now, and I can see him doing it. Trouble is, we have yet to see what Hakkinen can come out with. If nothing else, it should be a thrill to watch.

James Alexander	© 1998 Atlas Formula One Journal.
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