This year the rumour mill surrounding the so-called silly season seems to have more impetus than normal for the time of year, so what follows is my personal take on where F1 pilots may be going (and why) in 1998. My thoughts are a combination of conventional wisdom, grapevine and inspired guesswork and are of course as unofficial as these things ever get.

Ferrari
Michael Schumacher is tied up for a couple more years courtesy of the good people at Shell, who are his principal underwriters. As for the second seat, Irvine's contract option expires at Hockenheim and he has been under a lot of scrutiny from sources within Italy and at large. While Irvine wants to stay, Schumacher also wants him to stay and thus he should remain as the number 2.

Irvine has had an excellent season, however his run of three podium finishes may have come too early in the season to secure his seat, and his bad luck at Silverstone where 2nd place was in the bag didn't help either.

The fact that retirements are due to factors beyond his control cuts little ice in Maranello and speculation abounds that Keke Rosberg, the manager/mentor of Mika Hakkinen, is pushing hard to get his charge into Ferrari.

Difficult one to call but I think that Schumacher would prefer Irvine to Hakkinen and that should swing it to the Irishman. The token lame duck Italian coming in as No.2 can not be completely discounted either.

Williams
Look for Jacques Villeneuve to stay through 1998 and possibly 1999 as well, despite talk of deals with a new Reynard team with British American Tobacco support. Heinz-Harald Frentzen has been the subject of a lot of speculation due to some rather lacklustre performances recently, although Verstappen did punt him off at Silverstone.

Heinz-Harald Frentzen has a 2 year deal, and realistically should be given a bit more time, but believe it or not Damon Hill's name has been mentioned to possibly return to the team that dispensed with his services so easily last year after he won the silverware. Can't see it happening despite the patriotic frenzy that greeted Hill's 6th place at Silverstone. The song will remain the same: Villeneuve and Frentzen.

McLaren
Change, but with whom? Up to Silverstone it appeared that Hakkinen was out the door, but he was inspired in England, topping the practice sessions until a last ditch effort from the Williams pair saw him relegated to third on the grid. With Hakkinen using left foot braking again, he seems to be flying. He comfortably held off Villeneuve until the Mac in back did the big firework and probably would have won.

Coulthard has suffered some appalling luck since his win in Australia in the first race this season (several years ago I'm sure it seems to him) and is coming under increasing pressure. Mercedes have made no secret of their desire to see a German Driver in the silver arrow and soon.

Here's how I see it. Coulthard goes to Jordan thus pleasing Gallaghers (Benson & Hedges parent group) who would love to have a British driver.

Benetton
Rumours abound of a possible Audi-led takeover of Benetton who are facing restructuring in the off season. This will impact any moves on the driver front but it's a safe bet that one or both incumbents are on the move. With the recent announcement of Fisichella racing for them in 1998, it appears certain that this will be the case.

If Audi do take over they may indeed want to retain Berger who is still one of the most popular drivers around. Sauber have also made overtones to Berger but now appear to have been offered Wurz instead in a move surprising this observer given young Alex's super performances thus far. It may be that Wurz will be on a Fisichella-type contract whereby Flavio Briatore will retain the rights to the talented Austrian.

As for Alesi, it looks now that he will never fully realise his potential and may be heading down market next year, replaced by the aforementioned Fisichella.

Jordan
Eddie Jordan is probably the best spin-doctor in Formula 1 at present and it shows. He loses Peugeot engines and replaces them with Mugen Honda's and it comes off as he planned it like that all along. Having secured financial backing through the millennium, and now with the inside track on a possible full-time return to F1 by Honda (who will celebrate their 50th anniversary in 1998/99) Jordan looks as well set as they have at any time in their comparatively brief history.

This year's driver line-up has been one of the revelations of the season. Choosing two virtual rookies with little experience was second guessed by a lot of folk in the world of F1 (including perpetual whiner Martin Brundle) but both have shown pace and ability. Therefore, they are targets of many other team managers.

Replacements could come in the form of Coulthard from McLaren and intriguingly a return from CART exile for the sublimely quick Alex Zanardi. Jordan reportedly made efforts to sign Zanardi last year, but Zanardi preferred to stay in the USA to attempt to win the CART PPG Championship.

A return to the Jordan stable for Jean Alesi with whom he won the 1989 F3000 championship is also not out of the question. Jean, by virtue of his Japanese model/actress wife, is extremely popular in the Land of the Rising Sun. In short, the situation at Jordan will be interesting to watch.

Prost
With Peugeot motors and improving Bridgestone rubber and with hopefully a fully recovered Olivier Panis at the wheel, Prost could make a go of it big time in 1998. Not being saddled with Nakano and his yen will probably leave the way open for Jarno Trulli to take the second seat. Trulli has impressed since taking over from the luckless Panis but was outpaced by Nakano at Silverstone. He should, however return to form in time for Monza by when most of the big teams will have announced their plans for next year. Other rumours include the ubiquitous "Hill to wherever" scenario, although it should be noted that le Professeur is a fan of the current World Champion.

Arrows
The distress story of 1997 must surely be the sorry goings-on at Arrows-Yamaha. Damon Hill, if he had opted for this year's Jordan, would certainly have had a chance to win a race or two. In the Arrows with its gutless, spineless motor he is having a trying time of it, so much so to have Tom Walkinshaw (a man not known to mince his words) suggest that perhaps Damon isn't all that he might be behind the wheel, and that (one multimillionaire to another) he wasn't earning his money.

This may have been enough for Damon to seek alternate employment for next year. He is 37 years old and must make a move soon if he is to have any chance at all of winning a 2nd World Championship.

His popularity is still huge amongst the British F1 faithful (ask David Coulthard how many cheers he received for his 4th place at Silverstone compared to Hill's 6th), and as far as I'm concerned can still do the job. The move to Williams is a long shot especially if Williams win the Constructors, but he may find a home elsewhere.

Pedro Diniz will always have a job as long as he keeps signing the checks, although his performances of late have given cause for optimism. Their highly touted test driver, Jorg Muller may also get a run next year.

Sauber
Sauber are very keen to secure the services of a top flight pilot next year and top of the list appears to be Alex Wurz, so impressive of late in his outings replacing the convalescing Gerhard Berger. Bennetton as mentioned, may allow Wurz to go to Sauber to drive alongside Johnny Herbert who is having a reasonable season with the Swiss outfit.

Stewart
The new kids on the block are enjoying an promising season with Jordan recruit Barrichello enjoying his new team and landing an excellent second place at Monaco. Expect him to stay. However this has been their only points finish this year and Stewart are another team hostage to the brittle Ford powerplant.

Magnussen has yet to show any glimpse of the talent he displayed in running away with the British F3 crown a few years back and the jury on him remains out. He is though highly regarded by Jackie Stewart and will in all probability be asked back for 1998.

Tyrrell
One of the teams that appeared to have an excellent driver line-up at the start of the season was Tyrrell with the mercurial Finn Mika Salo slotting in beside the highly rated Dutchman Jos Verstappen. Despite some encouraging qualifying performances all the team has to show is a single 5th place for Salo at Monaco, primarily due to the totally outclassed Ford engines and Ken Tyrrell's usual sponsorship woes. Again it is conceivable that both could stay for another year or both could more on to pastures new.

Minardi
It's sometimes difficult to know who will be driving for Minardi next week, let alone next year. With Briatore's involvement in Benetton for 1998 looking shaky, there are now questions to be answered how Minardi's funding will happen without Briatore's involvement in the sport.

So there you have it. The addition of new teams or the return of previously defunct ones and hopefully new blood from other formula will further muddy the waters. By Monza, most of the major issues will be resolved and then we can get down to discussing the 1999 silly season!

Send comments to: brian.manning@duke.edu