Portuguese Grand Prix Preview

ATLAS TEAM F1

Portuguese Grand Prix Preview
Estoril • Lisbon • Portugal

by Toby Waller
England

Estoril

Circuit Length: 2.709 miles / (4.360km)
Race Length: 71 laps (192.351miles / 309.560km)

Damon Hill is a lucky man ... a very lucky man. His body language as he stood by the side of the track at Monza said it all - victory was in his hand, and he blew it. Come the end of the race, though, his championship lead remained intact - and in a somewhat stronger position as well. In fact, it is very likely that the 1996 Drivers' Championship will be sewn up this weekend at the challenging Estoril circuit. Very likely, but not certain, because Jacques Villeneuve knows the track intimately from winter testing and will be as determined as ever to push Hill hard - and hoping to force a mistake similar to Monza. Whilst the most important battle of the weekend will be between Hill and Villeneuve, let's not discount the opposition from taking the top step this weekend. Michael Schumacher won the race Ferrari wanted above all else, but two victories in the dry - both at challenging circuits - means that the scarlet chargers are, indeed, back. With the car pretty much in it's final form, things bode well for reliability, and the possibility of the fourth win of the season for Ferrari and Schumacher cannot be discounted. Benetton are there as well - if Jean Alesi had been able to come in at the same time, or later, than Schumacher, the Monza win could have very well been his. McLaren had a similarly blighted race to Williams - the temporary tyre walls causing the downfall of both Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard. For Hakkinen, had he not required a stop for a new nose, and consequently lost time in mid-field traffic, the race to the flag would have probably been a lot closer. Whilst many would say that Williams were nowhere to be seen last weekend, courtesy of the aforementioned tyres, it has become very obvious that the opposition are almost on a level footing with the Constructors' champions. With the silly season still in full throw, and driver placings potentially altering the balance of power, it could be the news off the track at Portugal that gets the media's attention as much as the battle on it.

Lap Guide
Apart from the moderate weather, there's one main reason why many of the teams spend the majority of their winter testing here - variety. From the flat out blasts of turns One and Two, to the newly added hairpin section - nicknamed "Cadwell Park", because of it's similarity to the British circuit - the Estoril track presents the drivers and engineers with one of the most diverse challenges in the world. After crossing the start/finish line at 180mph, the drivers dab the brakes and flick down into fifth before diving into the fast Turn One and Two - the second corner taken as a continuation of the first. A pair of second gear hairpins - Turns Three and Four - slow the cars down before they blast off again through the flat, right hand kink that is Turn Five. Another hairpin - Turn Six - before the long, right-hand Turn Seven. The cars then enter the new section - added in the name of safety in 1994 - that twists right before entering a steep, uphill hairpin, taken in first at under 50mph. With wheels spinning, the cars shoot hard right into turns Ten and Eleven before slowing down for the left hander that leads into the infamous turn Thirteen. The last corner on the circuit is a screamer - a stomach curdling flat out right-hander that leads back onto the pit straight for another lap.

What Happened Last Year?
A story of domination by Super Scot David Coulthard was so nearly a tale of tragedy. As the leaders dived into Turn One from the grid, the TV cameras focused into the cartwheeling maelstrom created by Ukyo Katayama's Tyrrell. The Japanese was lucky to escape alive, and would not return to the car until Japan. On the re-start, Coulthard led, with Damon Hill falling to third behind Schumacher. It was decided by Williams that two stops, rather than the planned three, would help the Englishman recover lost ground and valuable points for the championship. The strategy would prove his downfall though. Whilst Coulthard gradually pulled away to an unbeatable lead, stop-watches clicked on the pitwall as the Benetton and Williams teams worked out how far apart the dueling pair of Hill and Schumacher would be come the chequered flag. As the stops ended, it was Hill ahead of Schumacher. The Englishman was on heavily worn rubber, though (the Portuguese circuit being particularly hard on tyres) and Schumacher flew past the Williams in one of the moves of the season - cleverly scrubbing himself a clean line at the new hairpin over several laps. It was Coulthard's day, however, and the Scot finally achieved his well deserved first win, just seven seconds ahead of Schumacher. There was also a talented performance by Schumacher's old F3 rival, Heinz-Harald Frentzen, starting from the back after stalling on the formation lap, but finishing sixth. A certain Mr. Frank Williams was probably quite impressed by such a feat.

1995 Results
1.	David Coulthard       Williams-Renault   1h41m52.145s
2.	Michael Schumacher    Benetton-Renault       + 7.248s
3.	Damon Hill            Williams-Renault      + 22.121s
4.	Gerhard Berger        Ferrari             + 1m24.879s
5.	Jean Alesi            Ferrari             + 1m25.429s
6.	Heinz-Harald Frentzen Sauber-Ford           + one lap

Pole Position David Coulthard   Williams-Renault    1m20.537s	
Fastest Lap   David Coulthard   Williams-Renault    1m23.220s    

1995's event was a pretty decisive race in the quest for championship glory, but this year's is doubly so. I'll leave the calculator work regarding the title battle up to you, but how will the remaining drivers help or hinder the championship contenders?

Ferrari
Who would have thought after the debacles of Canada, France and Silverstone that Ferrari would win two races - on fairly even terms with the rest of the pack, no less! The Estoril track, with it's mix of slow and fast corners, may suit the Ferrari chassis/engine combination, but how long can the success go on? Scurrilous paddock gossip concerning the sacking of Eddie Irvine to make way for Damon Hill is almost certainly untrue, and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Benetton-Renault
Disappointing in qualifying, but oh so tantalizingly close in the race. Gerhard Berger's hydraulics failed, but Jean Alesi was able to keep Michael Schumacher's Ferrari comfortably at bay for the first half of the race. Estoril should suit Benetton, and the team are well poised for a win before concentrating on next year's car. Could the B197 be driven by Damon Hill though? If popular tabloid gossip is to be believed, then Alesi could be sacrificed so that Renault can carry the coveted number one in their final year. Seems unlikely, but in Formula One ...

Williams-Renault
Both drivers had their race blighted by the tyre walls, but the championship position between them looks in Hill's favour once more. It's ironic that the tyres were their downfall, as both drivers were consulted on the matter and approved the temporary solution to the chicanes. At Estoril - a track that Jacques Villeneuve knows well - he should excel. Beating Hill will be tough, though, and the championship can only be realistically achieved if the Englishman makes a severe cock up of both Portugal and Japan. Hill will be under particularly intense pressure not only to wrap up the championship, but to get somewhere to put his backside for next year. With McLaren announcing the re-signing of Hakkinen, the options are quickly running out.

McLaren-Mercedes
When will McLaren get the win they deserve so much? The gap between Hakkinen and Alesi was 40s - easily lost when a 20s pit stop and ensuing laps behind traffic are the cause. If Coulthard hadn't been snagged by the tyres as well, then surely the two drivers would have at least been challenging Alesi - if not Schumacher. The long straight at Estoril should suit the Mercedes engine, but the twisty bits will probably highlight the chassis' deficiencies. If, as rumoured, Adrian Newey joins the team from Williams, then the 1998 package could be unbeatable - some say Michael Schumacher could be tempted there. Talking of Schumacher's, it was good to see that Ron Dennis didn't fall for the hype and sign Ralf of the ilk for '97. Hakkinen has been one of the stars of the year, and is a good bet for next season - provided the car is right.

Ligier-Mugen Honda
Annoying others with their antics during practice, the duo of Panis and Diniz performed adequately in qualifying but, as usual, moderately in the race - the Monaco win must seem a distant memory now. The team will probably perform averagely at Estoril. Next year they'll have to manage without the benefit of a Tom Walkinshaw designed chassis, but the news that Alain Prost is one step closer to helping manage the team as a French owned, national affair may help put the spark back.

Jordan-Peugeot
Firmly in the mid-field as usual, the team had a fortuitous Monza race - taking advantage of the numerous retirements to finish fourth and fifth. Another chassis that may suffer around the twisty parts of Estoril, the team are more likely to have their carpets worn out by journalists eager for gossip on the Damon Hill / Ralf Schumacher front. Both are favourites to get a drive for '97, but Hill and a Schumacher in the same team? I doubt it. Still, this is Formula One. Next year could be the team's making or breaking, but this weekend will probably be the usual run of the mill effort.

Sauber-Ford
The Sauber team garage has probably never been so packed. With the news mid-week that the incredibly talented Heinz-Harald Frentzen is next year's Premier league new boy, the uninformed media swarmed all over the German to see what was so impressive - Frentzen admirably failed to deliver. Outqualified by team-mate Johnny Herbert, and yet another to stumble over the temporary tyre walls, the German had a troubled weekend. Still, I doubt he's too worried. Herbert, meanwhile, performed admirably once more and looks set to stay with the team next year - unless Jordan or Stewart snap him up. Estoril should hold no surprises.

Footwork-Hart
Along with Sauber, this team seems to be the favourite hunting ground for many of the mid-field drivers without a seat for next year - especially as TWR's effect will be more readily felt next year. Barrichello and this year's driver, Jos Verstappen, look favourites for '97. At Estoril, though, understeer will probably dominate the thoughts and minds of the engineers. It's been gradually cured over the season, but the opposition have gradually pulled away. Another team looking wistfully to next year.

Tyrrell-Yamaha
Engine problems again. The cars started towards the back, and finished - or failed to finish - there. Mika Salo is confirmed for next year, but unless Yamaha can build a convincingly better engine, the team will struggle for several more seasons to come.

Minardi-Ford
Both drivers qualified; both drivers failed to finish - engine problems the cause. The team look likely to change engines next year, and cash assistance from Flavio Briatore - keen to own a genuine Italian team and extend his influences in F1 - should help keep Giancarlo and the boys on the grid for the next few years. Estoril will probably see the team looking at the rear of the competition once more.

Forti-Ford
If rumours are true, then the Italians could be back. Now owning the team fully again, the team may be able to raise the cash to attend Portugal. They are also signatories to the Concorde Agreement - that means they have to run cars in the F1 championship for the next four years. Whether they'll be able to pay the fines for non-attendance at Germany, Hungary, Spa and Monza - or more importantly qualify at Estoril - remains to be seen.


Toby Waller
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