ATLAS F1   Volume 6, Issue 33
		Schumacher's Watershed
		by Richard Barnes, South Africa

Whatever other qualities it may possess, the twisty 4-kilometre Hungaroring circuit does not favour World Championship leaders. Over the last decade, only two WDC leaders have won in Hungary - Ayrton Senna in 1991 and Michael Schumacher in 1994. By mid-afternoon Saturday, the 2000 Hungarian Grand Prix seemed set to break the trend. Schumacher, calm and determined after his recent first-corner mishaps, turned in a qualifying performance of Senna-like dominance. On a circuit tailor-made for the German's pointy style, and with Mika Hakkinen apparently back in his mid-season doldrums, the race result seemed a foregone conclusion. It mattered not that Rubens Barrichello's poor qualifying pace belied the Ferrari F1-2000's apparent dominance; this was Michael's track, and Michael's show. Even without his teammate at the front to help him, Michael's street-circuit smarts would surely see off the McLaren challenge. Yet Hungary's tradition would once again hold sway over the form book. Hakkinen's turnaround in race trim was staggering, and undoubtedly the drive of the season. However, the lasting impression of Hungary 2000 was not Mika's brilliant drive. Instead, it was how neatly the race epitomised the rollercoaster ride that is modern Formula One. From the early to mid-Nineties, the World Drivers Championship was a series of one-man shows - Nigel Mansell in 1992, Alain Prost in 1993, Michael Schumacher in 1994 and 1995. From 1996 onwards, the whole complexion of the WDC has changed. Nowadays, it doesn't seem to matter who leads the championship, nor by how much; it's almost a certainty that eventually it will go down to the wire. It's become an annual ritual that has the more cynical fans musing aloud that it couldn't have been scripted better. Popular rationale has it that Schumacher's innate ability compensates for the machinery advantage of his WDC rivals, lending equity to an otherwise lop-sided contest. 2000 could be the season that changes that mindset forever: for the first time since 1994, Michael has been playing the role of the hunted and not the hunter. This season, there has been no need to play catch-up. The F1-2000 was on the pace from day one. Early in the season, Schumacher himself affirmed that gleefully, and the qualifying stats back up his assertion - twelve races, six poles each for McLaren and Ferrari. Compare that to the 13-3 split in 1998, and it's clear that the playing fields are as level as they're going to get. In Hungary, Hakkinen did exactly what he had achieved twelve months ago - dominate the race to take the lead in the Championship. Martin Brundle claimed, "Michael will be shell-schocked by this," and he's right. Not because Schumacher has lost a seemingly-invincible championship lead, but rather because of the revelation that he has performed little better than the 'Newey champions' who preceded him. Given fast, reliable machinery and a huge early-season points lead, he is now faced with the unthinkable prospect of yet another failure. As surprising as the WC turnaround has been, the signs were there all along. The television images of Schumacher limping around Monaco with a broken rear suspension evoked a strong sense of deja vu, harking back to the same race in 1998. On that occasion, his clash with an over-eager Alex Wurz at Portier put a sizeable dent in his championship aspirations. At the time, it didn't seem that important. The McLarens were so dominant that Michael's resistance seemed of little more than token interest. Schumacher's carbon-copy retirement at Monaco 2000 also seemed unimportant, for completely different reasons. On this occasion, he had such a big championship lead that one retirement would surely only delay his eventual crowning. At the time, Schumacher laughed it off, saying "that's F1 for you." Even his Austrian GP clash with Ricardo Zonta was dismissed with generous bonhomie. It was only when Giancarlo Fisichella ended Schumacher's race in front of his home crowd that the German's cool public facade slipped for the first time this season. Even before the gut-punch of Hungary, Michael must have been thinking "This can't be happening to me again..." Both Ferrari and Schumacher could claim to have done all they can. Team chief Jean Todt, designer Rory Byrne and technical director Ross Brawn have provided a reliable and competitive car, and Michael has made no race-ending driver errors. The shunts with both Zonta and Fisichella were largely unavoidable - a driver can only control what happens in front of him, not behind. Critics who claim that Michael 'brake-tested' unfairly are missing the point. At Austria, Michael closed up visibly on Coulthard under braking, and at Hockenheim there was clear daylight between Schumacher and Fisichella when Michael moved over onto the Italian's line. The acid test is to ask, "If the positions had been reversed, would Schumacher have rear-ended the drivers in front of him?" In both cases, the answer would likely be, No. Any Grand Prix start is a lottery, where differing fuel loads and cold brakes and tyres dictate extreme caution all round. For all their swerving and chopping start-line shenanigans, it's notable that Schumacher, Barrichello, Coulthard and Hakkinen invariably manage to avoid contact with each other. That's the result of having around 500 GP starts between them. Tossing a rookie like Zonta into the fray was inviting disaster. It must be cold comfort for Michael that Zonta nudged his own teammate into a spin the very next race. Nothing was going to undo that missed opportunity, and yet another 'what if...' was added to the Schumacher case file. Hungary has been both good and bad for Schumacher. His reputation took a dip when Damon Hill, driving the lamentable Arrows, trounced him in 1997. Then, just one year later, Michael came back with an epic drive to win brilliantly. But in a career of watershed races, none has put Schumacher on the spot like Hungary 2000. His situation now is uncannily similar to Ayrton Senna's in 1991. Senna aced the first four races of that season and had all but carved his name on the WDC trophy. Then, Williams and Nigel Mansell came back at him with a vengeance, bringing out the very best in the Brazilian. Ultimately, Williams' own pitlane ineptness led to Senna's triumph. In the most important race of that season, who could forget the image of Nigel tearing down the pitlane, only to be overtaken by one of his own rear wheels? McLaren are unlikely to be as accommodating as Williams were. After striking out in the first two races of the year, they have since notched up twenty trouble-free finishes, seventeen of those on the podium. For an over-engineered midfield team, that level of reliability would be remarkable. For a front-running team like McLaren, it's virtually unprecedented. In Mika Hakkinen, they also have a priceless asset - a driver who is virtually error-free when the pressure is the greatest. Schumacher's trump card is the next stop on the F1 calendar - Spa. Of all the tracks, this is arguably Michael's favourite and the ever-present likelihood of rain will come as a welcome bonus. Whatever the weather, Spa will pose questions about Schumacher's skill, nerve and commitment. Two years ago, he got everything right in the wet before yet another infamous collision ruined both his race and championship hopes. He simply cannot afford the same result again.

Richard Barnes	© 2000 Kaizar.Com, Incorporated.
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